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111. The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Author:
Bruce D. Jones
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
As we enter 2003, the Israeli-Palestinian context is defined by a series of inter- related phenomena: a continuing loss of Israeli and Palestinian lives; political turbulence (and some convergence) in Israel; progress, after much debate, on the question of reform and Chairman Arafat's leadership; a factional struggle for dominance of Palestinian popular politics; devastation of the Palestinian economy, and a lesser but still damaging corrosion of the Israeli economy; and public attitudes on both sides defined by the concept of “tactical hawks, strategic doves”—but with trends showing a worrying erosion of support for peaceful solutions. The international context is defined by growing consensus on substantive issues among international, Arab, and some U.S. officials; some remaining tactical and presentational differences within this group; a rise of anti-Semitic and anti-Arab attitudes; and uncertainty about the consequences of regime change in Iraq. The combination—alongside President Bush's decision to publish the Road Map following the confirmation of the new Palestinian Cabinet—potentially represents a turning point.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

112. Old Games, New Rules: Conflict on the Israel-Lebanon Border

Publication Date:
11-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Israel-Lebanon border is the only Arab-Israeli front to have witnessed continuous violence since the late 1960s and it could become the trigger for a broader Arab-Israeli conflict. Yet, in recent times it has been the object of very little international focus. Amidst raging warfare between Israelis and Palestinians and mounting war-talk surrounding Iraq, there is scant energy to devote to a conflict that, since Israel's May 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, appears devoid of justification and which neither of its principal protagonists seems interested in escalating. But ignoring it could be costly. Neither its roots nor its implications have ever been purely local. Israel's withdrawal has lessened the immediate costs but in some ways rendered the problem more unpredictable. Stripped of its cover as an Israeli-Lebanese border dispute, it has laid bare both the underlying Israeli-Syrian confrontation and Iran's involvement in the conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria

113. Middle East Endgame I: Getting To A Comprehensive Arab-Israeli Peace Settlement

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
President Bush, announcing U.S. policy towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on 24 June 2002, has set the terms of the international response to the conflict for the immediately foreseeable period. Before peace can be negotiated the violence has to stop. If the Palestinians are to have their own state – and the clear message is that they should – it must be one based on the principles of democracy, transparency and the rule of law. For that to happen the current leadership needs to go. The logic is sequential: political progress is conditional on a new security environment, institutional reform and, in effect, on regime change.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

114. Terrorist Links of the Iraqi Regime

Author:
Ely Karmon
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 28, 2002, a U.S. federal grand jury issued a new indictment against five terrorists from the Fatah Revolutionary Command, also known as the Abu Nidal Organization (ANO), for the 1986 hijacking of Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi, Pakistan. Based on "aggravating circumstances," prosecutors are now seeking the death penalty for the attack, in which twenty-two people – including two Americans – were killed.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, Palestine, Arabia, and Karachi

115. Special Policy Forum Report: Prospects for Palestinian Economic Reform

Author:
Maher Al-Masri
Publication Date:
08-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Palestinian economy has reached a situation like none it has ever experienced before. For several years leading up to 1999, average annual growth within the PA was estimated at 6.5 percent. Unemployment shrank to around 11.5 percent, poverty figures were on the decline, and, for the first time, the Palestinian economy was absorbing more Palestinian laborers than Israel. The economy might have been in an even better situation had trade and border conditions not been under strict Israeli control. Under such control, transported goods often had to be unloaded, checked, and reloaded, on top of several other impediments to the free flow of goods. Despite these impediments, however, the economy was progressing at a significant pace.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

116. Changing Rogue Regimes

Author:
Raymond Tanter
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
King Abdullah of Jordan's visit to Washington tomorrow offers the Bush administration an opportunity to clarify the relationship between regime change in Baghdad and progress in the Israel-Palestinian arena. Last Monday, the king told British prime minister Tony Blair that in light of the failure to move the peace process forward, military action against Iraq would open a Pandora's box.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

117. PLOCCA Redux: The State Department's Subtle Swipe at the Concept of Demanding Palestinian Compliance

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 19 — less than a month after President George W. Bush's call for Palestinian reform and just two days after the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades' latest terrorist attack — the State Department released its latest Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report. This new report is a mixture of increased truth telling (the good), old formulations (the bad), and irrelevant standards for what constitutes supporting terrorism (the ugly). In total, despite the improvement over past PLOCCA reports, the current report undercuts the Bush administration's nascent policy of pushing the peace process forward by demanding the establishment of consequences for noncompliance with peace commitments.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

118. Accounting and Accountability: Defining Donor Requirements for Palestinian Reform

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following preparatory meetings on Palestinian reform between Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Cheney and European officials, the Quartet (the United States, the European Union [EU], the UN, and Russia) met this week in New York. The Quartet established an International Task Force on Palestinian Reform with seven subcommittees, which are to meet quarterly. As talks about Palestinian political reform progress, the donors intend to find an acceptable means enabling the group to begin disbursing $1.2 billion in donor funds to the Palestinians.
Topic:
Security, Religion, United Nations, and Reform
Political Geography:
New York, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

119. Arab Responses to George W. Bush's June 24 Speech

Publication Date:
07-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 24, 2002, President George W. Bush stated, "Peace requires a new and different Palestinian leadership, so that a Palestinian state can be born." His speech elicited initial favorable reaction from Arab governments, which has evolved amid negative Arab media response.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

120. Qaedat Al-Jihad: New Name on the Road to Palestine

Author:
Reuven Paz
Publication Date:
05-2002
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Within the last month, the remaining members of al-Qaeda have begun to issue new electronic pamphlets through the websites of their supporters under the name of "Qaedat al-Jihad" (base of jihad). Usage of the internet by radical Islamists is not unprecedented, but after al-Qaeda's defeat in Afghanistan, it has become a vital modus operandi. This trend has also led to the establishment of dozens of websites by radical Saudi, Egyptian, and Palestinian scholars that grant Islamic legitimacy to al-Qaeda's cause.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and Egypt