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971. Kashmir: The View From Islamabad

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
More than five decades after independence, Pakistan is no closer to a resolution with India of the dispute over Kashmir. Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them over the status of Kashmir. They have been on the brink of war on several other occasions, including in Siachen in 1987 and in Kargil in 1999. From December 2001 to October 2002, the nuclear-armed protagonists came close to war once again when India mobilised along its international border with Pakistan following the terrorist attack on the parliament in New Delhi. Intense diplomatic and political pressure by the U.S., in coordination with other G-8 countries, averted what could have been a catastrophic clash.
Topic:
Security, Government, Regional Cooperation, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, India, Kashmir, New Delhi, and Islamabad

972. Kashmir: The View From New Delhi

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
For half a century Kashmir has been the major issue of contention between India and Pakistan. In India's view, the conflict in the state of Jammu and Kashmir constitutes a major internal security threat and is driven by Pakistani interference. No solution is possible, according to the Indian leadership, until Pakistan ceases its support for militants there.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, Kashmir, and New Delhi

973. Kashmir: Learning from the Past

Publication Date:
12-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While its roots predate Indian and Pakistani independence, the Kashmir conflict's current directions can best be understood in the light of the nationalism and state building that followed the end of British colonial rule. Domestic factors, including the imperatives of regime legitimacy and consolidation, remain important influences in both countries.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

974. Pakistan: The Mullahs and the Military

Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The resurgence of the religious parties in the October 2002 elections portends ill for Pakistan's political, cultural and social stability. For the first time in the country's history, an alliance of six major religious parties – the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) – has won power in two provinces, vowing to Islamise state and society through Taliban-like policies. The MMA based its electoral campaign on Islam and anti-U.S. slogans, targeting President Pervez Musharraf's pro-U.S. policies and pledging the enforcement of Sharia law. It now runs the government in the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP), bordering on Afghanistan, and shares power in Baluchistan.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Taliban

975. Yemen: Coping with Terrorism and Violence in a Fragile State

Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 3 November 2002, an unmanned U.S. “Predator” aircraft hovering in the skies of Yemen fired a Hellfire missile at a car carrying a suspected al- Qaeda leader, four Yemenis said to be members of the Aden-Abyan Islamic Army, and a Yemeni- American who, according to U.S. authorities, had recruited volunteers to attend al-Qaeda training camps. All six occupants were killed. Almost two months later, three American missionaries were shot and killed in the Yemeni city of Jibla. These incidents, only the latest in a series involving Yemen, reinforced its image as a weak and lawless state with porous borders, a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives, a country with tenuous government control over vast parts of its territory and dominated by a culture of kidnappings and endemic violence. The October 2000 attack on the USS Cole, the arrest earlier in 2002 of several Yemenis in the United States and Pakistan suspected of membership in the al-Qaeda network, the capture of Ramzi bin al-Shibah, a Yemeni citizen accused of being a key plotter of the 11 September 2001 attacks in the U.S., and the attack on the French oil tanker Limburg in October 2002 have all contributed to this perception. Indeed, during the past year, the U.S. has sent special forces to Yemen and neighbouring countries, with the purpose of pursuing presumed members of the al-Qaeda network and associated organisations in Yemen.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Yemen, and Arabia

976. The Kashmiri Conflict: Historical and Prospective Intervention Analyses

Publication Date:
06-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In late March 2003, terrorists thought to be members of Pakistan-supported Islamic groups killed 24 Hindu villagers in Kashmir. This incident evoked memories of the suicide attack by Muslim terrorists on the Indian Parliament in New Delhi in December 2001. Events like these raise the potential threat of war between India and Pakistan. South Asia is thought by many observers to be the most dangerous place in the world, with both antagonists armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

977. Coercion and Risk-Taking in Nuclear South Asia

Author:
Verghese Koithara
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:
The partition-bred conflict between India and Pakistan that began in 1947 went into remission in 1971 following India's emphatic victory in war that year. It reemerged in 1989 when serious disaffection in the Kashmir Valley gave Pakistan an opening to promote militancy. This created a dangerous situation because it was about the same time that both Pakistan and India also acquired nuclear weapons. There was a major confrontation between the two countries during March-May 1990. Since then there has been continuous tension with each attempting to coerce the other. In May 1998 both countries carried out several nuclear tests each. A year later, during May-July 1999, the two fought a two-month "limited war" in the Kargil region of Kashmir that caused over 1,200 fatalities. Kargil was a clear effort on Pakistan's part to test the deterrence value of its nuclear weapons. In December 2001 India resorted to an unprecedented military mobilization (Operation Parakram), holding out the clear threat of attacking Pakistan unless the latter stopped its sub-conventional operations.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and India

978. New Priorities in South Asia

Author:
Frank G. II Wisner, Nicholas Platt, and Marshall M. Bouton
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
South Asia may be halfway around the globe from the United States, but in the age of the Internet and globalization, what happens there—as the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda tragically underscored—can affect all Americans. The challenge to U.S. policy over the medium term (through 2010) is to design and implement a stable and sustained approach that will solidify bilateral ties with three of the key countries of the region—India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan—and give the United States an opportunity to influence major regional developments. This report assesses the strengths and weaknesses of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and recommends how U.S. policy can best take advantage of the opportunities while addressing the dangers that they present. Success in dealing with South Asia will require sustained and highlevel attention, sensitive diplomacy, a realistic view of what is possible, and, especially with Pakistan and Afghanistan, investment of substantial resources.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

979. Fireball on the Water: Naval Force Protection-Projection, Coast Guarding, Customs Border Security Multilateral Cooperation in Rolling Back the Global Waves of Terror...from the Sea

Author:
Irvin Lim
Publication Date:
10-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The Maritime Terrorist Threat is a hydra that continues to pose a clear and present danger to world commerce and, ultimately to the very well being of nations. The global stream of explosive carnage with truck bombs in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) on 13 May 2003, gas station bombing attacks across Pakistan on 15 May 2003, truck bombs in Casablanca (Morocco) on 16 May 2003 and in Jakarta (Indonesia) on 5 August 2003 serve as gruesome reminders that the war on global terrorism is far from over. In fact the war is getting tougher. We have not yet seen 'the turning of the tide'. A new wave of attacks is imminent around the world. More than on land and in the air, the vast maritime domain makes policing a Herculean enterprise, and it continues to be vulnerable to potentially devastating terrorist attacks. The paper argues that in order to effectively deal with the common threat of maritime terrorism, the world's naval forces and their respective home-front elements such as coastguard, costums, and port authorities must work hand-in-glove with the shipping community to enhance multi-agency integration and to forge great multilateral cooperation in order to protect vulnerable hulls and safeguard homelands at ports and at sea. It stands to reason then that the protracted, if not interminable fight against maritime terrorism remains to be urgently joined and decidedly joint in effort.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jakarta, and Riyadh

980. Whose Bomb is it Anyway? Public opinion and perceptions about Nuclear Weapons and Policy in the Post-Explosions Phase in Pakistan

Author:
Haider K. Nizamani
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The Pakistani society is rid with fissures on almost every issue and aspect concerning the nature of political system, nation-building, the meaning of the national identity and the means to ensure it. When it comes to the nuclear issue mid this cacophony and chaos, General Pervez Musharraf asserts that there is complete national consensus on Pakistan's nuclear program. Leaders of Jamaat-E-Islami, the most vocal political party in espousing the cause of nuclear Pakistan, argue that barring few individuals who are against nuclear weapons, the overwhelming majority of Pakistanis consider nuclear weapons essential for the country's security. Is there really a consensus in Pakistan regarding the nuclear option? Have people thought about their country's nuclear weapons program and policy? Have they thought about the likely costs of their country's nuclear program? Do they know who is in the control of the country's nuclear infrastructure? Such questions address the perceptual, doctrinal, command and control, and future dimensions of Pakistani nuclear weapons and policy.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Brazil