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781. Prioritizing Strategic Interests in South Asia

Author:
Robert B. Oakley and T.X. Hammes
Publication Date:
06-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The focus on the war in Afghanistan has prevented the United States from developing a South Asia strategy rooted in the relative strategic importance of the nations in the region. India, a stable democracy enjoying rapid growth, clearly has the most potential as a strategic partner. Pakistan, as the home of al Qaeda leadership and over 60 nuclear weapons, is the greatest threat to regional stability and growth. Yet Afghanistan absorbs the vast majority of U.S. effort in the region. The United States needs to develop a genuine regional strategy. This paper argues that making the economic growth and social reform essential to the stability of Pakistan a higher priority than the conflict in Afghanistan is a core requirement of such a strategy.
Topic:
Political Violence, Economics, Terrorism, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, South Asia, and India

782. Correcting America's Image Problem in Pakistan

Author:
Moeed Yusuf
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Despite receiving over $15 billion in U.S. aid since 9/11, perceptions of America in Pakistan remain acutely negative. If Pakistanis continue to be opposed to U.S. policies, the Pakistani government will not be able to deliver on its promises, and U.S. initiatives in Pakistan will not produce desired outcomes. American and Pakistani governments have forged a rather opaque relationship which has not helped to cultivate popular support for policies across Pakistan. Instead, it has fostered an anti- U.S. sentiment in Pakistan that increasingly puts pressure on the government in Islamabad. U.S. policy must be fundamentally changed to turn around the anti-American outlook among Pakistanis. In order to do so, the official relationship needs to be more transparent; frequency of visits by U.S. officials ought to be reconsidered; 'image correcting aid' should be provided in addition to the long-term assistance; Pakistani citizens should be engaged through constant dialogue and debate on U.S.-Pakistan relations; and American and Pakistani officials should remain sensitive about the internal impact of their public statements and actions.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Imperialism, Mass Media, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, America, and South Asia

783. Flooding Challenges Pakistan's Government and the International Community

Author:
Mary Hope Schwoebel and Altaf Ullah Khan
Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The flooding and associated devastation that have battered Pakistan since late July 2010 present yet another series of challenges to its government, already contending with violence from extremist groups. The international community would do well to assist the Pakistani government in responding effectively to these challenges. Natural disasters are social as well as environmental events. The poor and marginalized members of society suffer the most. Marginalization is one of the root causes of violence and militancy in Pakistan. As the government of Pakistan responds to the suffering of its people and the damage to the environment and infrastructure, it should seek to provide relief and recovery assistance in ways that contribute to ameliorating marginalization. Disaster managers should ensure that urgent humanitarian demands do not miss the opportunity to achieve relief and recovery in ways that contribute to good governance, sustainable development and stable peace.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

784. Pakistan: The Worsening IDP Crisis

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The monsoon floods in Pakistan have caused massive de- struction and turned a displacement crisis in the insecure western borderlands into a national disaster of mammoth proportions. When the floods hit, almost all those displaced from Malakand had returned hom e and were struggling to rebuild lives in a region where much of the infrastructure had been destroyed in fighting; 1.4 million more displaced from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) were living in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province. The disaster would have proved challenging under any circum- stance. The fragile civilian government, already tackling an insurgency, and its institutions, neglected during nine years of military rule, lack the capacity and the means to provide sufficient food, shelter, health and sanitation without international assistance. The Pakistan govern- ment and international actors should ensure those in the flood-devastated conflict zones are urgently granted the assistance they need to surv ive and to rebuild lives and livelihoods. If military objectives dictate rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, a population exhausted by con- flict could become a soft target for militants, making sta- bility in the northwest even more elusive.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

785. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR): Reducing Human Vulnerabilities To Natural Disasters

Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, the world has witnessed several major natural disasters, from the boxing day tsunami in 2004, to the Haiti earthquake in January 2010 and the recent floods in Pakistan in August 2010. The 'World Disasters Report 2009' states that 3,605 natural disaster occurrences were recorded from 2000 to 2008. In many of these disasters, critics have repeatedly brought up the issue of the failure to provide adequate response, calling on states and international communities to shift from reactive to proactive approaches to disaster management. In fact, as the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) acknowledges, policymakers have come to better understand how natural disasters exacerbate vulnerabilities of states and communities (UN, 2005). It should be noted that natural disasters have greater impact on poor countries and communities in particular as they tend to be more exposed to hazards and have less capacity and awareness to manage disaster risks (Concern Emergency Unit, 2005:2). This places greater importance on disaster risk reduction (DRR) as a means of reducing vulnerabilities of such states and communities and building their resilience to natural hazards.
Topic:
Health, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:
Pakistan

786. Pakistan\'s Roller-Coaster Economy: Tax Evasion Stifles Growth

Author:
S. Akbar Zaidi
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the last sixty years, Pakistan\'s economy has seen severe ups and downs. Once considered a model for other developing nations, Pakistan has been unable to sustain solid growth. Furthermore, a third of its population now lives below the poverty line, and its literacy rate is abysmally low. Pakistan\'s economic instability stems in large part from low government revenue resulting from the elite\'s use of tax evasions, loopholes, and exemptions. Fewer than three million of Pakistan\'s 175 million citizens pay any income taxes, and the country\'s tax-to-GDP ratio is only 9 percent. Tax evasion means fewer resources are available for essential social services. Pakistan spends too much on defense and too little on development: It has spent twice as much on defense during peacetime as it has on education and health combined. The government knows how to increase its revenue through tax reform, but the rich and powerful have resisted such measures for fear of lowering their own incomes. Without sufficient revenue the government will continue to be burdened with an unsustainable debt. It needs to end tax exemptions for the wealthy and develop broader, long-term economic plans for sustain able growth. In the past, the United States and other Western nations have come to Pakistan\'s rescue by paying off debts and funding development initiatives. Pakistan\'s elite has no reason to support reform as long as these bailouts come with no conditions attached.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan and United States

787. Navigating Negotiations in Afghanistan

Author:
Matt Waldman
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
There are reasons for skepticism about government-insurgent talks, especially as both sides are known for abusive, unjust and discriminatory policies. However, given the constraints of counterinsurgency, obstacles to an anticipated security transition, and the threat of worsening conflict, the potential for negotiations should be explored. Field research indicates that the coalition's military surge is intensifying the conflict, and compounding enmity and mistrust between the parties. It is therefore reducing the prospects of negotiations, which require confidence-building measures that should be incremental, structured and reciprocal. Strategies should be developed to deal with powerful spoilers, on all sides, that may try to disrupt the process. The form of pre-talks, and the effectiveness of mediators and “track two” interlocutors, will be critical. Pakistan provides assistance to, and has significant influence over, the Taliban. Talks require Pakistan's support, but giving its officials excessive influence over the process could trigger opposition within Afghanistan and countermeasures from regional states. The perceived threat from India is driving Pakistan's geostrategic policies, thus concerted efforts are required to improve Pakistan-India relations. Negotiations could lead to a power-sharing agreement, but implementation would be highly challenging, especially due to multifarious factional and other power struggles. An agreement could also involve constitutional or legislative changes that curtail fundamental civil and political rights, especially those of women and girls. Genuine reconciliation efforts are required to build better relations between hostile groups. For legitimacy and viability, any settlement must be both inclusive and just: it should therefore seek to reflect the aspirations of all elements of Afghanistan's diverse society. It should also seek to address underlying causes of the conflict, especially the abuse of power.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and India

788. Reevaluating Al-Qa'ida's Weapons of Mass Destruction Capabilities

Author:
Peter Bergen
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Two months after the 9/11 attacks, Usama bin Ladin claimed to possess a nuclear capability. On the morning of November 8, 2001, the Saudi militant was eating a hearty meal of meat and olives as Hamid Mir, a Pakistani journalist, interviewed him in a house in Kabul. Mir asked Bin Ladin to comment on reports that he had tried to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons, to which the al-Qa`ida leader replied: “I wish to declare that if America used chemical or nuclear weapons against us, then we may retort with chemical and nuclear weapons. We have the weapons as deterrent.” Mir asked, “Where did you get these weapons from?” Bin Ladin responded coyly, “Go to the next question.” After the interview was finished, Mir followed up this exchange over tea with Bin Ladin's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri. “I asked this question to Dr. al-Zawahiri: that it is difficult to believe that you have nuclear weapons,” Mir explained. “So he said, 'Mr. Hamid Mir, it is not difficult. If you have 30 million dollars, you can go to the black market in Central Asia, make contact with a disgruntled Russian scientist and get from him suitcase nuclear weapons.'”
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Russia, America, and Central Asia

789. Crime and Insurgency in the Tribal Areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan

Author:
Gretchen Peters
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Insurgent and terror groups operating in the tribal areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan are deepening their involvement in organized crime, an aspect of the conflict that at once presents enormous challenges and also potential opportunities for Coalition forces trying to implement a population‐centric counterinsurgency (COIN) strategy. Within a realm of poor governance and widespread state corruption, anti‐state actors engage in and protect organized crime—mainly smuggling, extortion and kidnapping—both to raise funds and also to spread fear and insecurity, thus slowing the pace of development and frustrating attempts to extend the rule of law and establish a sustainable licit economy. Militant groups on either side of the frontier function like a broad network of criminal gangs, not just in terms of the activities in which they engage, but also in the way they are organized, how funds flow through their command chains and how they interact—and sometimes fight—with each other. There is no doubt that militant groups have capitalized on certain public grievances, yet their ties to criminal profiteering, along with the growing number of civilian casualties they cause on both sides of the frontier, have simultaneously contributed to a widening sense of anger and frustration among local communities. Through a series of focused and short anecdotal case studies, this paper aims to map out how key groups engage in criminal activity in strategic areas, track how involvement in illicit activity is deepening or changing and illustrate how insurgent and terror groups impose themselves on local communities as they spread to new territory. It is hoped that a closer examination of this phenomenon will reveal opportunities for disrupting the problem, as well as illustrate how Coalition forces, the international community and moderate Muslim leaders might capitalize on an untapped public relations opportunity by better protecting local communities who are the main victims of it.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Afghanistan

790. Victim and rebel: Al-Qaida's salafist rhetoric and the pitfalls of anti-terrorism

Author:
Lars Erslev Andersen
Publication Date:
10-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Following the July 2005 London terrorist attacks the focus of anti-terrorism efforts has moved towards radicalisation within European societies and away from the conflicts in the Middle East and South Asia. This report argues that this shift in focus is based on a misconstrual of al-Qaida as it mistakes effect for cause. Based on an examination of the communication strategy of al-Qaida and the political rhetoric of Salafism the need for an analysis of militant Salafism in its political and societal context is demonstrated. The radicalisation theory is criticised and it is argued that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as the increased focus on efforts to counter radicalisation within European societies more or less have failed because al-Qaida has been able to exploit this strategy and reorganise itself around an operational centre in Pakistan. The report concludes that only politically viable solutions in South Asia and the Middle East can effectively suppress al-Qaida and militant Salafism.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Mass Media, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Europe, South Asia, and Middle East