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101. "No Sign until the Burst of Fire: Understanding the Pakistan-Afghanistan Frontier"

Author:
Thomas H. Johnson and M. Chris Mason
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
By 1932, British troops had been waging war of varying intensity with a group of intractable tribes along and beyond the northwestern frontier of India for nearly a century. That year, in summarizing a typical skirmish, one British veteran noted laconically, “Probably no sign till the burst of fire, and then the swift rush with knives, the stripping of the dead, and the unhurried mutilation of the infidels.” It was a savage, cruel, and peculiar kind of mountain warfare, frequently driven by religious zealotry on the tribal side, and it was singularly unforgiving of tactical error, momentary inattention, or cultural ignorance. It still is. The Pakistan- Afghanistan border region has experienced turbulence for centuries. Today a portion of it constitutes a significant threat to U.S. national security interests. The unique underlying factors that create this threat are little understood by most policymakers in Washington.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, and Asia

102. Securing Pakistan's Tribal Belt

Author:
Daniel Markey
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Today, few places on earth are as important to U.S. national security as the tribal belt along Pakistan's border with Afghanistan. The region serves as a safe haven for a core group of nationally and internationally networked terrorists, a training and recruiting ground for Afghan Taliban, and, increasingly, a hotbed of indigenous militancy that threatens the stability of Pakistan's own state and society. Should another 9/11-type attack take place in the United States, it will likely have its origins in this region. As long as Pakistan's tribal areas are in turmoil, the mission of building a new, democratic, and stable Afghanistan cannot succeed.
Topic:
Terrorism and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Asia, and Taliban

103. Is the Maghreb the 'Next Afghanistan'?: Mapping the Radicalization of the Algerian Salafi Jihadist Movement

Author:
Noureddine Jebnoun
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Abstract:
On March 4, 2004, General Charles Wald, then-deputy commander for the European Command (EUCOM), observed that “there has, without a doubt, been some al-Qaida presence in portions of North Africa. But it isn't like Afghanistan or other places, and what's more, Pakistan, for that matter.” On March 10, 2005, Rep. Edward R. Royce (R-California), chairman of the House Subcommittee on International Terrorism and Nonproliferation, mentioned in a prepared statement that the “train and equip efforts [undertaken by the Trans-Sahara Counter Terrorism Partnership (TSCTP)] are aimed at eliminating the 'next Afghanistan': another terrorist sanctuary” across the Sahara-Sahel region, which allegedly harbors Islamic militants and bin Laden sympathizers. More recently, Rep. Jane Harman (D-California) argued that “North Africa could be the next front in [the] war on terror.”
Topic:
Political Violence, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Arabia, Algeria, and North Africa

104. New York City's Preparedness for Terrorism (and Catastrophic Natural Disasters)

Author:
Clark Kent Ervin
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Sooner or later, somewhere or other, another natural disaster will strike America, be it a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, or a flood. Sooner or later, somewhere or other, terrorists will attempt to strike America again. Indeed, many experts believe that the threat of another attack is rising. Al Qaeda is resurgent, having reconstituted itself along the Afghan-Pakistan border. And, recent history shows that terrorists are especially prone to strike during the transition from one administration to another or early in the term of a new government. Adding to our vulnerability, the nation is now bogged down in two wars and groaning under mounting debt, while our economy is sinking from the greatest financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Topic:
Security, Disaster Relief, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and New York

105. Pakistan and the War on Terror: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
On June 24, 2003, at a Camp David meeting with his Pakistani guest, President George W. Bush declared that key al- Qaeda terrorists had been successfully neutralized thanks "to the effective border security measures and law enforcement cooperation throughout [Pakistan], and ... to the leadership of President Pervez Musharraf." Although Osama bin Laden was still at large, Bush nevertheless concluded that "the people reporting to him, the chief operators [of al-Qaeda], ... people like Khalid Sheik Mohammed, are no longer a threat to the United States or [to] Pakistan, for that matter."
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan

106. Pakistan—Conflicted Ally in the War on Terror

Author:
Ashley Tellis
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Many Americans have blamed the resurgence of al-Qaeda and the Taliban on Pakistan's lackluster performance in the war on terror. Islamabad has indeed been ambivalent, but the convulsive political deterioration in the North West Frontier Province in Pakistan, Islamabad's military ineptitude in counterterrorism operations, and the political failures of the Karzai government in Afghanistan have all exacerbated the problem. Making U.S. aid conditional on Pakistan's performance in the war or undertaking unilateral strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan would inflate suspicion of Washington's motives, and risk casting Pakistan, a nuclear-armed state, as an American adversary. U.S. policy must instead convince Pakistani elites that defeating terrorist groups serves their own interest, while emphasizing that a terrorist attack emanating from Pakistan would push Washington to adopt more painful tactics.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, America, Washington, Asia, and Taliban

107. PolicyWatch #1301: Pakistan and the War on Terror

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 3, Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency, putting at risk, despite claims to the contrary, the upcoming January elections. Musharraf justified his move by citing an increase in "the activities of extremists and incidents of terrorist attacks." The action was taken despite recent pleas from U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, as well as Admiral William Fallon, head of U.S. Central Command, who visited Musharraf on November 2. Instead of political stability in Pakistan, U.S. policymakers are now confronted with a more difficult battle against al-Qaeda in neighboring Afghanistan, a perhaps less secure Pakistani nuclear weapons arsenal, and a postponed democratic revival of the world's second most populous Muslim state.
Topic:
Political Violence, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia

108. PolicyWatch #1255: Gaza: The Next Terrorist Safe Haven?

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Could Hamas members in the Gaza Strip join ranks with the global jihadist movement led by al-Qaeda? There is merit to this question, given the recent Hamas takeover of the territory and al-Qaeda's call for Muslims around the world to finance and arm Hamas. The interpersonal relationships between Hamas and al-Qaeda members present a significant danger. Although, as an organization, Hamas is not about to join al-Qaeda, individual Hamas members could (see Jake Lipton, "The War of Words between Hamas and al-Qaeda," PolicyWatch no. 1254). Moreover, a lawless Gaza -- like Iraq's Anbar province, Pakistan's federally administered tribal areas, and Somalia -- could quickly become a safe haven for both homegrown and imported jihadists.
Topic:
Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Gaza

109. AsiaSource Interview with Dr Abdullah Abdullah, former Afghan Foreign Minister

Author:
Nermeen Shaikh
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Dr Abdullah Abdullah was appointed foreign minister of Afghanistan following the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, a position he retained till March 2006. He spoke to Nermeen Shaikh in Almaty, Kazakhstan, at the Eurasian Media Forum, about what the greatest failures of the war on terrorism have been, what the prospects for Afghanistan are now, and the role of Pakistan in contributing to the deteriorating security situation in the region. In particular, Dr Abdullah alleges that the government of Pakistan has consistently drawn a distinction between Al Qaeda militants - whom the Pakistani authorities have handed over to the US - and Taliban leaders, whom Pakistan continues to protect.
Topic:
International Relations and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Kazakhstan, Asia, and Taliban

110. A long hot summer

Author:
William Maley and Daoud Yaqub
Publication Date:
03-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
On 21 March each year, the people of Afghanistan celebrate the Spring festival of Nawruz. Families gather to mark the onset of the new season, and to wish each other well for the coming year. Yet this year, Nawruz is overshadowed by a gathering sense of apprehension. All the available evidence suggests that the opponents of the Karzai government and of its Coalition supporters are positioning themselves for their fiercest attacks ever. As the snow melts and ground becomes passable again, hundreds of foreign fighters are poised to strike against both the instrumentalities and symbols of the state, and the large proportion of the Afghan population that remains committed to the transition inaugurated by the Bonn Agreement of December 2001. This is not, however, a threat just to the security of Afghanistan. In a very real sense, it reflects a recrudescence of the al-Qaeda network and its affiliates, and thus challenges those countries and peoples who have fallen victim to al-Qaeda's brand of globalised terrorism. Afghanistan is the front line in confronting these forces, and if the wider world allows the struggle for Afghanistan to be lost, it could pay a heavy price.
Topic:
NATO, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Asia