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2. Is a military intervention in Mali unavoidable?
- Author:
- Roland Marchal
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- No clear settlement of the crisis in Mali seems possible in the short term, despite a UN Security Council resolution on October 12th paving the way for a military intervention by ECOWAS countries. The crisis is fed by various dynamics that need to be reconciled for peace to prevail. Firstly, the transition in Bamako is going nowhere, and further divisions in the government and the resurgence of the coup makers undermine the fragile progress witnessed in July. Unable to agree on a solution in Bamako, most political actors have developed a militaristic approach to any solution for the north. Secondly, Islamist and jihadist movements were able to gain control of northern Mali (two-thirds of the country) in a few months and have enforced new rules inspired by their understanding of Islam. Although protests erupted in several cities, the militants deepened their control over the region and its local and transnational economy and may have a constituency among the population. ECOWAS, supported by France, is willing to intervene militarily, but the fragmentation of the Malian army is a key weakness. Moreover, ECOWAS has not spelled out the actual aims of its intervention: mere territorial gains without addressing local and national grievances may mean the return of the status quo ante, which would be unacceptable to most people in northern Mali. As usual, the long-term political dimensions of the ECOWAS intervention are dismissed in favour of an immediate military victory that would be very fragile as a result.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Africa, France, and Northern Mali
3. Between Islamization and Secession: The Contest for Northern Mali
- Author:
- Derek Henry Flood
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- ON JANUARY 17, 2012, a rebellion began in Mali when ethnic Tuareg fighters attacked a Malian army garrison in the eastern town of Menaka near the border with Niger.1 In the conflict's early weeks, the ethno-nationalist rebels of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA)2 cooperated and sometimes collaborated with Islamist fighters of Ansar Eddine for as long as the divergent movements had a common enemy in the Malian state.3 On March 22, disgruntled Malian soldiers upset about their lack of support staged a coup d'état, overthrowing the democratically elected government of President Amadou Toumani Touré.
- Topic:
- Islam
- Political Geography:
- Northern Mali