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601. Progress on the Korean Peninsula?

Author:
John Feffer
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
It was a striking juxtaposition, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and North Korean leader Kim Jong Il sitting side by side at a display of mass gymnastics in Pyongyang this last October. “Spectacular and amazing,” Albright called the coordinated movements of the 100,000 performers. When a picture of the August 1998 Taepodong rocket launch was displayed, Kim Jong Il confided that it would be his country's first and last such launch. The North Korean leader was a man with whom she could do business, Albright concluded at the end of her visit. The U.S. and North Korea, technically at war for over fifty years, had never before been on quite such cordial speaking terms.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, North Korea, Korean Peninsula, and Pyongyang

602. Bringing Peace in from Without: How to End the Cold War in Korea

Author:
Tong Whan Park
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
From June 13 to 15, 2000, the first-ever summitry was held between the two Koreas since the peninsula's division at the end of World War II. The two heads of state produced a five-point agreement2 designed to launch an era of dialogue between the erstwhile enemies. As part of the agreement, a limited number of people with separated families have since traveled to each other's capital for a tearful reunion. The ground has been broken to re-link the countries by rail that would pass through the Demilitarized Zone. Bureaucrats of the two countries have engaged in a flurry of activity including high level talks and the historic visit by North Korea's defense minister to the South. Seoul's chaebols also got themselves busy to jump aboard the bandwagon heading north. And the new mood of detente peaked at the opening ceremony of the 27th Olympiad in Sydney when athletes from the two Koreas—albeit competing as separate national teams—marched together following a hastily concocted flag with an image of the Korean peninsula.
Political Geography:
North Korea, Korea, Sydney, and Korean Peninsula

603. Economic Recovery in the DPRK: Status and Prospect

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Early in September 2000, a front- page story in the Washington Post nicely captured the newly prevailing view among international "North Korea watchers" concerning the DPRK economy's current condition and immediate outlook.. The article, titled "North Korea Back From The Brink", reported that "[visitors and other analysts] say the North Korean economy is growing for the first time in nine years, the mass starvation is over....". It remarked upon "nascent signs of recovery—more traffic on the roads, more livestock in the fields, peasants who look healthy." The story further noted that the Republic of Korea Bank of Korea (BOK) recently "concluded—with some surprise—that the North's economy grew last year by a sustainable 6.2 percent, the first growth since 1990", and quoted the South Korean central bank as stating that "it's reasonable to predict that the worst is over for the North Korean economy".
Political Geography:
Washington, South Korea, and North Korea

604. U.S. Policy Toward North Korea: A Second Look

Author:
Michael J. Green, James T. Laney, and Morton I. Abramowitz
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
In May, former Secretary of Defense William Perry traveled to North Korea with a comprehensive proposal to increase outside assistance for its isolated and declining Stalinist regime in exchange for steps by the North to reduce its threatening military posture. The Perry proposal was designed to test North Korea's intentions not only to abide by the 1994 Agreed Framework, which aimed to cap Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions, but also to stop further missile tests and military provocations. It is unlikely that North Korea will respond positively. The regime has survived for five decades only by maintaining a belligerent stance. Pyongyang has rebuffed South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's unprecedented efforts to improve North-South relations and has continued to produce military tensions, even in the wake of the Perry visit. But it is too soon to give up on a comprehensive package to reduce tensions with North Korea. Despite the illusion of self-sufficiency, or juche, the North is increasingly dependent on outside help to sustain itself. It is possible that over time Pyongyang will find no alternative to greater interaction with the outside world. Barring an increase in threatening North Korean actions, the United States should keep the Perry proposal on the table and continue to support Kim Dae Jung's policy of engagement. A second Taepodong missile test by North Korea would not violate any existing North Korean commitments, but it would significantly change the situation in Northeast Asia. We should make every effort to deter a launch, but if one takes place, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will have to examine ways to enhance defense against a different North Korean threat. South Korea should suspend new investment in North Korea and Japan should impose new sanctions and consider restrictions on financial transfers to the North. The United States should lower its diplomatic activity toward Pyongyang, keeping channels open, but forcing North Korea to provide incentives for greater dialogue. A missile launch should not end our attempts at diplomacy or cause us to forget that North Korea's relative military capabilities are in decline, but if a test is conducted business cannot continue as usual. Although a North Korean missile launch would do great damage to political support for the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) in the United States, Japan, and South Korea, it should not be a reason for us to abandon our commitments under the Agreed Framework. The Agreed Framework stands as the major bulwark against a return to the kind of calamitous military steps the United States was forced to consider in 1994 to stop North Korea's nuclear program. Inspections of suspicious underground facilities at Kumchangri in May revealed no North Korean violation of the Agreed Framework. Although we cannot assume from this that Pyongyang has forsaken its nuclear ambitions, we do know that implementation of the Agreed Framework remains the best approach to preventing nuclear weapons development in the North. In the end, there is no easy solution to the intractable North Korean problem. Efforts to reduce tensions and build North-South reconciliation have yielded little. We are strong enough to test inducements for change in the North, but our policy must be based on robust deterrence and close defense cooperation with our allies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula

605. Transcript: North Korea Task Force

Author:
James Laney and Michael J. Green
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Good morning. Thank you for coming. I'm Michael Green, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations here in Washington, and the director of this independent task force on Korea policy, which is sponsored by the Council on Foreign Relations. We are here today to release and explain our recent study on policy towards North Korea. This is, in many ways, the culmination of a two-year effort by the Council.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, East Asia, North Korea, and Korea

606. Transcript: Mock National Security Council Meeting on North Korea

Author:
Arnold Kanter, Donald A. Baer, Donald P. Gregg, Bernard E. Trainor, and Robert L. Gallucci
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Ambassador Robert L. Gallucci (Dean, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University; Former Ambassador-at-Large, Department of State): Looking at the situation with respect to domestic stability in the north, we judge their regime as stable, which is to say, that we do not see a near-term deterioration in the ability of Kim Jong Il to maintain power, notwithstanding this economic situation that he confronts.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, and North Korea

607. The Korean Peninsula: Is Kim Dae-jung's Pursuit of a Korean Confederation Realistic?

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
01-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the spring of 1999 Swiri-fever swept South Korea. Millions flocked to see the first domestic action film considered up to international standards. “Swiri,” a slick Hollywood-style spy thriller, revolves around the complex issue of Korean unification that lies at the heart of Korea's future. Since the inauguration of President Kim Dae-jung in February 1998, South Korea has debated unification more openly than ever before.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Civil Society, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

608. Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015

Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The worldwide ballistic missile proliferation problem has continued to evolve during the past year. The proliferation of technology and components continues. The capabilities of the missiles in the countries seeking to acquire them are growing, a fact underscored by North Korea's launch of the Taepo Dong-1 in August 1998. The number of missiles in these countries is also increasing. Medium- and short-range ballistic missile systems, particularly if armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) warheads, already pose a significant, threat to US interests, military forces, and allies overseas. We have seen increased trade and cooperation among countries that have been recipients of missile technologies from others. Finally, some countries continue to work toward longer-range systems, including ICBMs.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

609. The Dynamics of the North Korean Threat: Is The Erosion of North Korean Military Capabilities Real or Imagined?

Author:
Bruce William Bennett
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
It is an all-too-familiar pattern for military forces. Lacking sufficient funds to finance across-the-board military modernization, the country appears to pursue only selective modernization and some force evolution. The majority of military equipment is therefore allowed to slip into an antiquated state. The same financial constraints limit force readiness, especially reducing the combat training essential for the force should it be suddenly thrust into wartime operations. This reduction is then exacerbated by a diversion of the force into peacetime assignments that bear little resemblance to its wartime missions. Commentators wonder whether these military forces have become hollow, with significantly reduced combat capabilities.
Political Geography:
North Korea

610. Current Status of Software Research and Development in North Korea

Author:
Chan-Mo Park
Publication Date:
03-1999
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The twenty-first century will be characterized by informatization, globalization, and openness. In particular, the rapid development of the Internet is playing a great role in globalization, in that information flows on it across national boundaries, without time or content constraints.
Political Geography:
North Korea