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541. Six-Party Talks: Defining A Realistic Roadmap for Success

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa, Scott Snyder, and Brad Glosserman
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The forthcoming resumption of Six-Party Talks to eliminate nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula is expected to build on the Joint Statement of principles released at the end of the last round on September 19, 2005. While some have criticized the vagueness of the Joint Statement, it represents the first tangible progress in identifying common principles and objectives in two years of sporadic meetings. If North Korea has indeed made a “strategic decision” to abandon its nuclear weapons programs – a thesis still to be tested – it may provide a basis for future progress. For this to occur, however, a more specific negotiating road map and implementing process must be developed. It is important to assess where the current guidelines might lead and to identify the "commitments for commitments" and "actions for actions" that might be envisioned as next steps.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

542. Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies

Author:
Victor D. Cha
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
The regime of Kim Jong-Il has been called "mad," "rogue," even, by the Wall Street Journal, the equivalent of an "unreformed serial killer." Yet, despite the avalanche of television and print coverage of the Pyongyang government’s violation of nuclear nonproliferation agreements and existing scholarly literature on North Korean policy and security, this critical issue remains mired in political punditry and often misleading sound bites. Victor Cha and David Kang step back from the daily newspaper coverage and cable news commentary and offer a reasoned, rational, and logical debate on the nature of the North Korean regime. Coming to the issues from different perspectives—Kang believes the threat posed by Pyongyang has been inflated and endorses a more open approach, while Cha is more skeptical and advocates harsher measures—the authors together have written an essential work of clear-eyed reflection and authoritative analysis. They refute a number of misconceptions and challenge much faulty thinking that surrounds the discussion of North Korea, particularly the idea that North Korea is an irrational nation. Cha and Kang contend that however provocative, even deplorable, the Pyongyang government’s behavior may at times be, it is not incomprehensible or incoherent. Neither is it "suicidal," they argue, although crisis conditions could escalate to a degree that provokes the North Korean regime to "lash out" as the best and only policy, the unintended consequence of which are suicide and/or collapse. Further, the authors seek to fill the current scholarly and policy gap with a vision for a U.S.-South Korea alliance that is not simply premised on a North Korean threat, not simply derivative of Japan, and not eternally based on an older, "Korean War generation" of supporters. This book uncovers the inherent logic of the politics of the Korean peninsula, presenting an indispensable context for a new policy of engagement. In an intelligent and trenchant debate, the authors look at the implications of a nuclear North Korea for East Asia and U.S. homeland security, rigorously assessing historical and current U.S. policy, and provide a workable framework for constructive policy that should be followed by the United States, Japan, and South Korea if engagement fails to stop North Korean nuclear proliferation.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and International Security
Political Geography:
North Korea and Korean Peninsula
Publication Identifier:
9780231505338
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

543. China Brief, Beijing's North Korean Gambit

Author:
Willy Lam, Lionel Martin, John Tkacik, and Toby Lincoln
Publication Date:
10-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Beijing is flashing the North Korean (DPRK) card at a time when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership feels increasingly threatened by an anti-China “containment policy” that Washington is supposedly spearheading with the help of Japan, Taiwan and other Asian countries and regions.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Washington, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, Asia, and North Korea

544. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

545. Changing Inter-Korean Relations and the Impact on the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, since the 1990s Inter-Korean relations, a lasting reminder of that Cold War, have undergone drastic changes, especially during and after the Kim Dae Jung administration. Peace and stability in Northeast Asia depend on what happens on the Korean peninsula. How Seoul's North Korea policy evolves is of great interest to its allies and will likely impact South Korea's stature in the regional strategic order. In particular, the U.S.-ROK relationship can improve or deteriorate based on the diplomatic direction that South Korea takes with North Korea.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

546. The Impact of North Korea's WMD Programs on Regional Security and the ROK-U.S. Alliance

Author:
Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr.
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
While the use of weapons of mass destruction such as nuclear programs and missiles has been part of Pyongyang's brinkmanship strategy almost since the very beginning of the Kim Chong-il era, the current string of events that have occurred since the fall of 2002 is unique. Instead of the world and the region having concerns over the nuclear facility at Yongbyon, the situation now exists where North Korea has the potential for weaponizing, using, and proliferating two nuclear programs - both plutonium based, and the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) program which came into existence during the 1990s.
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

547. Beyond Electoral Politics: US-ROK Alliance and the Six-Party Talks on North Korea

Author:
Young Whan Kihl
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The United States - ROK Mutual Defense Treaty, commemorating its half-century mark on October 1, 2003, was hailed as one of the successful, long-standing, military alliances that the U.S. had entered into with its allies in the post-World War II era. On the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the Korean War, there was a wide-ranging commemorative community program and activities throughout the United States, to honor Korean War veterans and their family members.
Political Geography:
United States, North Korea, and Korea

548. Defense Science Board 2003 Summer Study on DoD Roles and Missions in Homeland Security, Volume B

Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
During the Cold War, the United States developed and refined intelligence capabilities upon a number of key factors: Known adversaries, the Soviet Union and the Communist Bloc, including China and North Korea; Known geographic boundaries: that of the communist nation states (We knew where to look); Known conflict of ideology: communism vs. capitalism; Observable (with some degree of confidence over time) military capabilities of adversaries; and Indications (and in some cases, warning - developed over the years) of activity potentially hazardous to the United States and NATO.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, and North Korea

549. Tear Down This Tyranny

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
The United States must develop a new approach to the North Korean nuclear crisis based on the dual realizations that we will not likely talk North Korea out of its nuclear weapons program or see much improvement under the regime of Kim Jong Il.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

550. The Defense Monitor, Ten Mistakes History will Record About War in Ira

Author:
Rachel Stohl, Anthony Zinni, Steven C. Welsh, Michael Donovan, and Colin Robinson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Defense Information
Abstract:
[T]he first mistake that will be recorded in history [is] the belief that containment as a policy doesn't work. It certainly worked against the Soviet Union, has worked with North Korea and others. It's not a pleasant thing to have to administer, it requires troops full-time, there are moments when there ... are periods of violence, but containment is a lot cheaper than the alternative, as we're finding out now.
Topic:
Security and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea