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371. North Korea, Inc.: Gaining Insights into North Korean Regime Stability from Recent Commercial Activities

Author:
John S. Park
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Assessing regime stability in North Korea continues to be a major challenge for analysts. By examining how North Korea, Inc. — the web of state trading companies affiliated to the Korean Workers' Party (KWP), the Korean People's Army (KPA), and the Cabinet — operates, we can develop a new framework for gauging regime stability in North Korea. Insights into the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) regime can be gained by examining six core questions related to the DPRK state trading company system. First, what are DPRK state trading companies and how did they emerge? Second, how do DPRK state trading companies operate? Third, what roles do they play? Fourth, why are DPRK state trading companies important? Fifth, what major transformations are taking place in the DPRK state trading company system? Sixth, what are the implications of the manner in which this system is currently functioning?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Communism, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:
North Korea

372. A Rejoinder: Building 'Positive, Cooperative and Comprehensive' China-US Relations

Author:
Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The US-China relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships in the world. As two of the world's largest economies, there can be no solution to the global economic crisis if the two work at cross purposes and many of the region's most complex security challenges - North Korean denuclearisation first among them - require Sino-US cooperation. The good news is that both US President Barrack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao are aware of and accept the shared responsibility and necessity for a cooperative approach toward dealing with the global financial crisis and regional security challenges; both have pledged to develop a "positive, cooperative and comprehensive" relationship and build mutual trust in a way that encourages, rather than worries, friends and allies in the Asia Pacific.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, China, and North Korea

373. Negotiating with North Korea: An International Deal?

Author:
Anna Dall' Oca
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The International Spectator
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Review of: Strategic thinking about the Korean nuclear crisis, Gilbert Rozman, Palgrave Macmillan, 2007 ;Negotiating with the Hermit Kingdom, Christopher D. LaRoche, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies-Dalhousie University, 2008 ;North Korea on the brink, Glyn Ford with Soyoung Kwon, Pluto Press, 2008.
Political Geography:
North Korea and Korea

374. Canaries in the Cooling Tower

Author:
Charles A. Duelfer
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The National Interest
Institution:
Center for the National Interest
Abstract:
IN LIGHT of the costly tragedy in Iraq, some have commented that inspections would have been an alternative to war. They were not. It was not that simple. Moreover, even with the most intrusive and extensive inspection system ever implemented, we still did not know the extent of Iraq's WMD capacity. Arms inspections are no substitute for war or political compromise, or good independent intelligence. Too often, too many have expected too much from such mechanisms. Inspections are not a goal in themselves. As the urgency and perils of North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs continue to escalate unchecked, attention repeatedly turns to inspections as the remedy of all ills. Yet, the invasiveness of the Iraq inspections was unique. We will never again be able to cajole another country to the extent we did Baghdad. And still we see the limits that even these intrusive inspections had. But, there are untold lessons to be learned from this bizarre case. More than anything else it goes to show that, in spite of their failings, inspections have a purpose and can be wielded to gain information and to deter WMD programs.
Topic:
Security, Government, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq and North Korea

375. Perspectives from Fragile Crescent: A South Asia Crisis Simulation

Author:
Steven J. Tomisek, Christopher S. Robinson, and Kenneth Kligge
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Obama administration has arguably inherited the toughest national security environment since the end of World War II. Instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan has propelled South Asia to the top of a U.S. national security agenda already crowded with a long list of major problems that includes North Korea, Iran, and Iraq. The political, security, and economic trends in Afghanistan and Pakistan have taken a turn for the worse, as the two countries confront an increasingly violent Taliban-led insurgency and al Qaeda–linked militant jihadist groups. To make matters even worse, Pakistan's relations with India have been damaged by the November 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks.
Topic:
Political Violence, National Security, War, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Iran, South Asia, North Korea, and Mumbai

376. Decommissioning the North Korean Nuclear Facilities: Approaches and Costs

Author:
Hui Zhang
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
If the agreed objective of complete denuclearization of Korean peninsula is to be achieved, it can be expected that dismantling and ultimately decommissioning North Korean plutonium production facilities have to be proceeded. This paper will focus on decommissioning the 5 megawatt-electric (MWe) plutonium production reactor and the reprocessing plant. It explores and recommends the best decommissioning approaches to those nuclear facilities. It also provides a discussion of the decommissioning costs for these nuclear facilities.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:
Israel, North Korea, and Sinai Peninsula

377. The Lee Myung-Bak Government's North Korea Policy and the Prospects for Inter-Korean Relations

Author:
Hong Nack Kim
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The inauguration of the Lee Myung-Bak government on February 25, 2008, aroused expectations that President Lee's new North Korea policy would bring about more effective results in dealing with Pyongyang, including the realization of denuclearization of North Korea. Contrary to initial expectations, Lee's North Korea policy has encountered unexpected problems and challenges as North Korea has not only suspended official inter-Korean dialogue and contacts since April but also refused to resume the talks with Seoul unless the Lee government would accommodate Pyongyang's demands: (1) to honor the two inter- Korean summit agreements: the June 15 Joint Declaration (2000) signed between Kim Dae-Jung and Kim Jong-Il and the October 4 (2007) Declaration signed between Kim Jong-Il and Roh Moo-Hyun; (2) to discard the Lee government's “Vision 3000: Denuclearization and Openness”; and (3) to abandon the strategy of strengthening South Korea's alliance with the U.S. and Japan to pressure North Korea. In short, North Korea wants the Lee government to continue the sunshine policy of engagement toward the North. However, it is difficult for the Lee government to accommodate the North's demand, for President Lee promised during the presidential election campaign in 2007 to discard the sunshine policy as it had failed not only to prevent North Korea's nuclear weapons program but also to induce North Korea to adopt reform and openness.
Topic:
Government
Political Geography:
North Korea

378. Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea

Author:
Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
For most of the 1990s, North Korea was under what can only be called a prolonged deathwatch, so common and confident were predictions of its demise. Despite suffering acute economic stress from the loss of its principal economic patron—the Soviet Union—in 1991, the sudden death of its founding father––Kim Il-Sung––in 1994, and then soon after a devastating famine that may have claimed as many as a million lives, North Korea managed to survive. By decade's end, North Korea's extraordinary resilience, combined with its defiant and at times belligerent attitude to the rest of the world, had convinced most experts that this was not a country about to pass either quickly or quietly into the history books. Since then, the conventional wisdom among most if not all North Korea watchers is that it will muddle through indefinitely even if its long-term future remains doubtful.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and North Korea

379. Bank Shots: How the Financial System Can Isolate Rogues

Author:
Rachel L. Loeffler
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Financial sanctions have become a key tool of U.S. foreign policy. Measures taken against Iran and North Korea make clear that this new financial statecraft can be effective, but true success will require persuading global banks to accept a shared sense of risk.
Topic:
Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and North Korea

380. Unclear Nuclear Logic?

Author:
Frank Procida and Peter Huessy
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
To the Editor:The shift in U.S. nuclear policy advocated by Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal ("The Logic of Zero," November/December 2008) might make sense for a number of important reasons -- not least among them safety, cost, and reducing the risk of annihilation through miscalculation. But it would be naive to expect any of the authors' recommendations to alter the decision-making of the rogue states that are currently pursuing nuclear technology. Assuming it were feasible, even the complete elimination of the United States' nuclear arsenal would almost certainly have little positive effect on Tehran's or Pyongyang's proliferation, as the same complex set of internal and external factors now driving their policies would persist, as would their perceived vulnerability to U.S. conventional superiority. The less drastic measures the authors call for, such as Washington's accepting international oversight over its own fissile material, far from enhancing the likelihood of reaching agreements with rogue states, would probably barely register in negotiations.
Topic:
Security and United Nations
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, and North Korea