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51. Disabling DPRK Nuclear Facilities

Author:
David Albright and Paul Brannan
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
During the February 2007 Six-Party Talks in Beijing, negotiators reached agreement on a series of actions aimed at starting the process of verifiably dismantling the nuclear weapons program of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). A key part of this agreement stipulated that after the DPRK shuts down its nuclear facilities, it would “disable” them. The February agreement did not state which facilities would be disabled or how they would be disabled, except to imply that these issues would be subject to further negotiations.
Topic:
International Relations and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Beijing, North Korea, and Korea

52. Chinese Views: Breaking the Stalemate on the Korean Peninsula

Author:
Scott Snyder and Joel Wit
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The second North Korean nuclear crisis, which climaxed with the test of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006, has influenced the views of Chinese specialists. By revealing the status of North Korean nuclear development, Pyongyang's nuclear test was a poke in the eye of Chinese leaders, who had tried privately and publicly to dissuade North Korean leaders from conducting a test. As a result, China has taken stronger measures to get Pyongyang's attention, including a temporary crackdown on North Korea's illicit financial activities. These changes spotlight an ongoing debate within the Chinese academic community over whether North Korea (DPRK) could become a strategic liability rather than a strategic asset. This debate centers on whether it is necessary to set aside China's loyalty to the current North Korean regime in order to maintain good U.S.-China relations and achieve China's objectives of developing its economy and consolidating its regional and global economic and political influence. Or is maintaining North Korea as a strategic buffer still critical to preserving China's influence on the Korean peninsula? An increasingly vocal minority of Chinese specialists is urging starkly tougher measures in response to North Korea's “brazen” act, including reining in the Kim Jong Il regime or promoting alternative leadership in Pyongyang. Although their sympathy and ideological identification with North Korea has waned, many Chinese policy analysts clearly prefer North Korea's peaceful reform to a U.S.- endorsed path of confrontation or regime change. China's policymakers have sought to forestall North Korean nuclear weapons development, but they continue to blame U.S. inflexibility for contributing to heightened regional tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. Chinese analysts fret that economic and political instability inside North Korea could negatively affect China itself. They have shown more concern about the North Korean regime's stability in recent months than at any time since the food crisis in the late 1990s. Chinese policymakers ask how to encourage North Korea's leaders to embark on economic reform without increasing political instability. Discussions with Chinese experts reveal considerable uncertainty about the future of North Korean reform. The possibilities of military confrontation on the Korean peninsula, involving the United States and either a violent regime change or destabilization through North Korea's failure to maintain political control, are equally threatening to China's fundamental objective of promoting regional stability. These prospects have increased following North Korea's nuclear test and the strong reaction from the international community, as shown by UN Security Council Resolution 1718. China's economic rise has given it new financial tools for promoting stability of weak states on its periphery. Expanded financial capacity to provide aid or new investment in North Korea might help it achieve political and economic stabilization. The Chinese might prefer to use the resumption of benefits temporarily withheld as a way of enhancing their leverage by reminding the North of its dependence on Beijing's largesse. Managing the ongoing six-party talks will pose an increasingly difficult diplomatic challenge for China. Chinese diplomats take credit for mediation and shuttle diplomacy, but their accomplishments thus far have been modest. Talks have been fairly useful in stabilizing the situation, but they have also revealed the limits of China's diplomatic influence on both the United States and North Korea. U.S. intransigence is as much an object of frustration to the Chinese as North Korean stubbornness. Chinese analysts clearly have given thought to potential consequences of regime instability. For example, the Chinese military's contingency plans for preventing the spillover of chaos into China and for seizing loose nukes and fissile material imply that Chinese forces would move into North Korean territory. Without effective coordination, simultaneous interventions in the event of unforeseen crisis inside North Korea could lead to direct military conflict among U.S., Chinese, and South Korean military forces. Rather than accept South Korean intervention backed by the United States as a prelude to reunification, Chinese analysts repeatedly emphasize that “the will of the North Korean people must be considered” in the event of instability. If intervention were necessary, China clearly would prefer insertion of an international peacekeeping force under UN auspices. Such a force would establish a representative government, which would then decide whether to negotiate reunification with South Korea.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Beijing, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

53. Food Security in North Korea: Designing Realistic Possibilities

Author:
Randall Ireson
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
Between about 1990 and 1996, North Korea experienced what can only be described as a catastrophic economic collapse, which included a 70 percent reduction in food production compared to the late 1980s. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) initially insisted that the agriculture collapse was a consequence of natural disasters. However, it is clear that the seeds of this catastrophe had been planted decades earlier, the result of ill-advised and ultimately unsustainable national agricultural policies. Yet difficult as the situation is, it is not without options for significant improvement. This paper outlines a strategy for agricultural revitalization in North Korea, which could, in the foreseeable future, enable the DPRK to produce—domestically and in a sustainable manner—nearly all the food needed to supply a basic balanced diet for its population. Whether this strategy can be implemented, or indeed whether it is the best strategy for the DPRK in the longer term, depends on many factors outside the farm sector, including world and regional international political issues, and DPRK policy choices regarding participation in world trade and commerce.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, and Korea

54. Asia Society Analysts Comment on North Korea's Nuclear Tests

Author:
Vishakha N. Desai
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
On October 9th, North Korea declared that it had tested a nuclear weapon, and after a week of speculation, US intelligence officials confirmed today that a nuclear explosion was in fact carried out. A sanctions resolution at the UN Security Council has been unanimously adopted. Negotiations are now underway about how precisely to implement these sanctions, which include Pyongyang's weapons and missile programmes, as well as luxury goods. They also permit cargo coming from or going to North Korea to be inspected for banned items. It is the latter point which is contentious for China. Asia Society, with our unique focus and resources, is specially positioned to bring you analysis and points of view from experts who have lived, worked and studied in a variety of Asian countries. Below, some of our leading Asia Society analysts comment on the developing situation.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, and North Korea

55. Pyongyang 1, Bush 0

Author:
John Feffer
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Five years ago, when George W. Bush took office, North Korea didn't claim membership in the nuclear club. Its plutonium reprocessing facilities were frozen. It was even willing to negotiate away its missile program.
Topic:
International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

56. North Korea and the Politics of Famine

Author:
Jeff Feffer
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
This paper was produced under the auspices of a research project sponsored by the Sejong Institute. It will be published in book form later this year. The author would like to thank the following people for their helpful suggestions on earlier drafts: Ruediger Frank, Sang-jin Han, Chuck Hosking, Karin Lee, Wonhyuk Lim, Marcus Noland, and Kie-duck Park. He would also like to thank Randy Ireson, Erica Kang, Rajiv Narayan, Richard Ragan, and Sun-song Park for agreeing to be interviewed.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

57. Upping the Ante - The North Korean Nuclear Deterrent

Author:
Martin Rødbro
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
A party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1985, North Korea in 2003 admitted that the country had nuclear weapons; a message that stunned the world. The announcement was made following a long conflict with the International Community (IC) where first the North Korean regime had limited International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in 1992 and since had been playing a dangerous tit-for-tat game with the IC over its nuclear program.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Asia and North Korea

58. Democracy, History, and Migrant Labor in South Korea

Author:
Hyun Park
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper concerns the paradox of democratization in South Korea, whose progression has been entwined with neoliberal capitalism beginning in the 1990s. There have been critical moments of democratization since the military rulers gave in to popular pressure for democratization. These moments range from the recommencement of the popular electoral system in the Presidential election in 1987 to the transfer of the state power to civilian leaders, and the participation of former dissidents in the parliament and the administration. A particular form of democratization addressed in this paper is not electoral state politics but the broad-reaching initiatives to transform the relationship between the state and society. Specifically, I examine the initiative to rewrite colonial and cold-war history. This particular initiative is part of an effort to correct a longstanding tendency of previous military regimes that suppressed the resolution of colonial legacies and framed Korean national history within an ideological confrontation of capitalist South Korea and communist North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

59. Waiting to Exhale: The Six-Party Talks Agreement

Author:
Wade Huntley
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
Nuclear nonproliferation advocates worldwide welcomed the joint agreement issued September 19 by the participants in the "Six-Party Talks" process aimed at denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. The agreement evinces not only a commitment by North Korea to end all nuclear weapons development, but also a validation of a negotiated approach to the current Korean nuclear crisis which both North Korea and the United States have, at various times, resisted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, and North Korea

60. Uses of Ambiguity in North Korea Agreement

Author:
John Feffer
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
On September 19, North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program. As part of the same agreement, which followed the latest round of the Six Party Talks, the United States pledged not to attack or invade North Korea, to coexist peacefully with the country, and to work toward normalized relations. The United States and other parties to the agreement — China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea — offered to put together an energy package for North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea