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11. Trade Disputes With China Shoot US In The Foot

Author:
Li Chunding
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
US-China trade friction has intensified, and one excuse that the Trump administration has used for trade protectionism against China is that China has been stealing US jobs, especially in the manufacturing sector. But bilateral trade has nothing to do with unemployment in the US. China itself or trade with China is merely scapegoats. The US is being a fault finder without realizing that the real reasons are internal, and the trade conflict will jeopardize manufacturing jobs on both sides.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Trade, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

12. Trading Down: Unemployment, Inequality and Other Risks of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Author:
Jeronim Capaldo and Alex Izurieta
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Proponents of the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP) emphasize its prospective economic benefits, with economic growth increasing due to rising trade volumes and investment. Widely cited projections suggest modest GDP gains after ten years, varying from less than half a percentage point in the United States to 13 percent in Vietnam. However, these projections assume full employment and constant income distribution in all countries excluding some of the major risks of trade liberalization. In this paper, we provide alternative projections of the TPP’s economic effects using the United Nations Global Policy Model. Allowing for changes in employment and income distribution, we obtain very different results. We find that the benefits to economic growth are even smaller than those projected with full-employment models, and are negative for Japan and the United States. More important, we find that the TPP will likely lead to losses in employment and increases in inequality.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Inequality, Trans-Pacific Partnership, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, Vietnam, North America, and Asia-Pacific

13. Generation "U".: The Plight oof 75 Million Unemployed Youth

Author:
Arun S. Nair
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Consider this—globally, 75 million youth between 15 and 24 years of age are unemployed, according to a May 2012 report of the International Labor Organization (ILO). If all these youth were residents of a single nation, that would make it the 18th most populous in the world. The 75 million youth (an increase of around 4 million since 2007) comprise about 40 percent of the estimated 207 million unemployed people across the world. Many of those who have managed to secure some employment are not any better off. As many as 228 million youth who have 'jobs' live on less than $2 a day, a reflection of their poverty and under-employment. The ILO forecasts a bleak future too. The international body on labor projects that the global youth unemployment rate—seen at 12.7 percent this year (or higher at 13.6 percent if one includes those who have given up or put off their job search due to the poor prospects)—will remain at such high levels in the near future, that is at least till 2016. Such is the seriousness of the problem that some experts have already started describing today's youth as Generation 'U' (for Unemployed) or Generation 'NEET' (an acronym for Not in Education, Employment or Training), a far cry from the more popularly used term—'Generation Z' or 'iGeneration' (symbolizing their skills in being technologically advanced and connected).
Topic:
Debt, Youth, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

14. Heterogeneous Workers, Optimal Job Seeking, and Aggregate Labor Market Dynamics

Author:
Brandan Epstein
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the United States, the aggregate vacancy-unemployment (V/U) ratio is strongly procyclical, and a large fraction of its adjustment associated with changes in productivity is sluggish. The latter is entirely unexplained by the benchmark homogeneous-agent model of equilibrium unemployment theory. I show that endogenous search and worker-side horizontal heterogeneity in production capacity can be important in accounting for this propagation puzzle. Driven by differences in unemployed and on-the-job seekers' search incentives, the probability that any given firm with a job opening matches with a worker endowed with a comparative advantage in that job exhibits a stage of procyclical slow-moving adjustment. Consequently, so do the expected gains from posting vacancies and, hence, the V/U ratio. The model has channels through which the majority of both the V/U ratio's sluggish-adjustment properties and its elasticity with respect to output per worker can be accounted for.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Business, Unemployment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America