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31. Taking stock: Where are geopolitics headed in the COVID-19 era?

Author:
Jeffrey Cimmino, Matthew Kroenig, and Barry Pavel
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is a strategic shock, and its almost immediate, damaging effects on the global economy constitute a secondary disruption to global order. Additional secondary strategic shocks (e.g., in the developing world) are looming. Together, these developments pose arguably the greatest threat to the global order since World War II. In the aftermath of that conflict, the United States and its allies established a rules-based international system that has guaranteed freedom, peace, and prosperity for decades. If the United States and its allies do not act effectively, the pandemic could upend this order. This issue brief considers the current state of the pandemic and how it has strained the global rules-based order over the past few months. First, it considers the origins of the novel coronavirus and how it spread around the world. Next, it examines how COVID-19 has exacerbated or created pressure points in the global order, highlights uncertainties ahead, and provides recommendations to the United States and its partners for shaping the post-COVID-19 world.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Politics, European Union, Economy, Business, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, Eurasia, India, Taiwan, Asia, North America, Korea, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

32. Assessing Indian digital trade policies: Will they support a $5 trillion economy?

Author:
Mark Linscott
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has forced nearly all public policy questions to be seen through the lens of how to detect and respond to the disease as it spreads rapidly across the globe. These include obvious questions of national health care policy and whether there is a place for international efforts to coordinate their national responses. Trade policy has come to the fore as a growing number of countries restrict exports of critical medical supplies to ensure sufficient availability for patients in-country. In this crisis, international collaboration to keep trade flowing has been limited and has not prevented many countries from imposing new trade restrictions. The importance of digital policies has grown as countries seek to harness the tools of big data, artificial intelligence (AI), and vital infrastructure to trace outbreaks of the virus and assist efforts to find cures and vaccines. While digital tools are proving vital in efforts to track outbreaks and trace contacts, legitimate concerns are growing about potentially invasive government surveillance even after the virus retreats. These policy areas—health, trade, and digital—overlap in the international, national, and local efforts to reduce the duration of the pandemic and mitigate its effects with respect to human lives and economic well-being. The analysis in this paper, while initially conducted before anyone had ever heard of COVID-19, has been impacted by its sudden emergence and will likely require updating to assess the experiences of this ongoing crisis. The paper, which focuses on the U.S.-India bilateral relationship, concludes with a series of questions, as opposed to policy recommendations. This is due partly to the very complexity that all governments confront in mapping out digital policies given the ubiquitous role digital networks and devices play in our daily lives. But these questions may have even more tangible relevance now that COVID-19 is forcing a reckoning with a severe interruption in global economic growth, which could be on the scale of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Ultimately, the governments of India, the United States, and other nations will determine for themselves what answers are relevant to their individual circumstances.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Trade, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Canada, India, North America, and United States of America

33. US-Brazil trade and FDI: Enhancing the bilateral economic relationship

Author:
Abrão Neto, Ken Hyatt, Daniel Godinho, Lisa Schineller, and Roberta Braga
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The year 2020 marks the turning of a page for the Western Hemisphere, a region that in 2019 saw uncertainty dominate headlines as new governments came in and out of office, trade tensions grew, and citizens took to the streets to voice their concerns with the status quo. For years, the opportunities that could come with a stronger bilateral relationship between the United States and Brazil have been underestimated. Significant potential exists to produce sizeable benefits for both societies. That potential must be maximized. While US and Brazilian governments and businesses have begun to seize the benefits of the synergies the two countries share, hurdles remain that prevent a full and successful commercial reality. The United States and Brazil would benefit from a closer and stronger trade and foreign-direct-investment-relationship that would amplify growth and prosperity, in both the short and long terms. Deepening the economic relationship would pay dividends in other areas as well, translating into greater opportunities for strategic bilateral cooperation. This paper recognizes that the moment is now and that 2020 is a pivotal year to substantively advance bilateral economic ties. Building upon the successes and progress made over the years, this paper incorporates the input and expertise of the US and Brazilian private sectors and policymakers to offer a renewed vision and new momentum for strengthening US-Brazil trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), supporting concrete steps toward deepening the commercial relationship, and laying the foundation for a potential free trade agreement (FTA) between the United States and Brazil. As the global balance of power shifts, as the world faces new hurdles that could slow growth, and as Latin America must contend with more uncertainty amid new external shocks, the two countries strategically and economically have countless reasons to deepen commercial relations. Stronger ties will ultimately provide additional certainty at this critical time.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Global Markets, Economy, and Business
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, North America, and United States of America

34. Don’t Count Out U.S. Oil Production as a Market-Shaper

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Total U.S. production from all sources will remain the world’s largest no matter how low prices go, leaving Washington (and Texas) with considerable room to help domestic companies and press Riyadh and Moscow on stabilizing prices. Five years ago, U.S. shale production costs were so high that whenever oil prices dropped, the impact was felt first and foremost by American producers. Many commentators and media sources assume that is still the case, but the situation has changed dramatically. A recent IMF report with the dry title “The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region” listed the “breakeven price” for various sources of crude. Naturally, Gulf oil had the lowest cost at $18 per barrel, but the shocker was that U.S. shale came in second place at $22—50 percent below the average deepwater project, 80 percent below Canadian oil sands, and 90 percent below Russian onshore projects. Since costs vary widely, some projects presumably have a much lower breakeven price and some much higher, but the general findings are nonetheless striking. If the IMF is correct, then U.S. production should not be counted out, since the cost fundamentals are on its side. To be sure, the current market structure is not on U.S. shale’s side. Small U.S. producers have to raise money on financial markets and cannot rely on the deep government pockets available to producers in Russia and OPEC states. As a result, many are staring at a very dire situation.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, Global Markets, Business, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

35. La transición hacia energía renovables en México: Oportunidades y desafíos respecto a las empresas y derechos humanos

Author:
Jacob Ramirez
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
Los gobiernos y las empresas argumentan que invertir en energía eólica contribuye al desarrollo sostenible global y la conservación ecológica. Sin embargo, las consecuencias sobre las tradiciones socioculturales y económicas de los pueblos indígenas desafían estos argumentos. Las confrontaciones entre las empresas y los pueblos indígenas sobre la energía renovable se remontan a la continuidad de la opresión y la represión de los gobiernos y las empresas hacia los pueblos indígenas, lo cual se denomina colonialismo interno. Basado en un estudio longitudinal en el Istmo de Tehuantepec en Oaxaca, México, este artículo ofrece una forma diferente para discutir derechos humanos y empresas en inversiones eólicas en dicho país. Asimismo, a través de los conceptos de colonialismo interno y justicia ambiental, analiza los Principios Rectores sobre las Empresas y los Derechos Humanos de las Naciones Unidas. El colonialismo interno expone la profundidad de las dinámicas conflictivas en las inversiones eólicas, en los territorios de los pueblos indígenas con respecto a la injusticia ambiental en sus derechos humanos.
Topic:
Human Rights, Business, Renewable Energy, Indigenous, and Wind Power
Political Geography:
Latin America, North America, and Mexico

36. 2020 Election: Achieving a Safe, Accessible, and Credible Election during COVID-19

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The 2020 general election is already underway, with absentee ballots being mailed out and collected in some states. And what seemed worryingly possible in the spring is now inevitable: the COVID-19 pandemic will be an important factor in the conduct of this fall’s election. Every community must address the public health threat and facilitate safe participation. Policymakers, election officials, and business leaders must ensure that voters need not choose between exercising their franchise and protecting their health, and that the election itself does not further spread COVID-19.1 The Committee for Economic Development of The Conference Board (CED) strongly believes that transparent, fair, and accessible elections are fundamental to the confidence of US citizens in their government and its leadership, and to the long-term health of the US economy. In May, June, and July, CED called on Congress to provide states with funding to conduct a safe, accessible, and credible election in the midst of a pandemic. With the election in progress, and Election Day less than two months away, the states and local communities, with or without federal support—including leaders in the business community—must act to meet those goals. As explained in this Solutions Brief, there is still time to protect voters and poll workers and maintain trust in the conduct and outcome of elections. Fortunately, effective measures are already in force in pockets of the country, with states and election officials needing only to replicate the best preparations and practices nationwide. This brief outlines recommendations policymakers should adopt to improve operations in their jurisdictions. Given the public health challenges involved, business leaders will also play a critical role in protecting their employees, customers, and communities during a successful election. To the extent possible, business leaders should take the concrete steps outlined in the brief to assist in the election effort.
Topic:
Elections, Economy, Business, Domestic Politics, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

37. Smart Regulation in a Post-COVID-19 Economy

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has put regulation issues front and center in every American’s life. Within a few short weeks, 41 out of 50 states have issued stay-at-home orders,1 and regulations governing many other aspects of all Americans’ public lives are now imposed because of COVID-19. Among a long list of constraints, nonessential businesses, many of them small businesses, have been required to cease or sharply curtail their services. Schools have been closed, access to parks and outdoor spaces has been restricted, and other staples of all Americans’ public lives, including large gatherings, have been restricted. On the other hand, and more than ever before, Americans have seen other regulations lifted rapidly, particularly in the heavily regulated health care sector. Constraints on testing, laboratories, out-of-state health care workers, vaccine R&D, telemedicine, ventilator production, and infrastructure expansion have been relaxed. Even more extensive relief has addressed the unprecedented havoc that COVID-19 has unleashed on American society, public health, and the economy. Restrictions on work at home, online courses at colleges and universities, the transport of food and alcohol, and hours truck drivers can be on the road are all being lifted or relaxed to meet the demands of the crisis. Restrictions on the production of hand sanitizer and the amount that the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) allows passengers to carry on airplanes have also been relaxed.
Topic:
Regulation, Economy, Business, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

38. Technology and Innovation Solutions Must Lead the Way to COVID-19 Recovery

Author:
Committee for Economic Development of the Conference Board
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting the US and world economy with unprecedented speed and scope, drastically altering the daily experiences of millions of Americans. As private and public leaders in the US race to suppress the outbreak and begin reopening the economy, educators, employers, and service providers are seeking new or different ways of doing business to preserve learning, productivity, and well-being. Aided by US capitalism’s long history of boundary-pushing advancements in science and technology, the US response—ranging from tracking the virus’s spread to shifting commerce to virtual tools and platforms—will draw on rapid adoption, adaptation, or improvement of technologies as well as faster-paced innovation. Under pressure of the public health crisis, many organizations will accelerate technologies in their daily practice, advancing the timeline for cutting-edge business and social services. America is in a strong position to innovate to address this and future pandemics. However, it must also address the spotlight COVID-19 has shone on critical shortcomings with US technology, its accessibility, the regulations governing its application and use, and the privacy and public health trade-offs for policy makers and private sector leaders. As this report explains, policy makers and business leaders must address these critical shortcomings with new approaches including: Funding states and localities so all Americans have access to broadband during lockdowns to access services and distance learning; a “digital divide” that was problematic before the crisis is crucial during social and economic restrictions when even some basic services are provided only remotely; Changing regulations—some temporarily, others permanently—to support innovation and experimentation to address the immediate and potential future public health crises, including relaxing restrictions to speed vaccine development, expanding telemedicine, and improving monitoring and tracking of the outbreak; Removing unnecessary roadblocks to faster and more effective adoption of digital tools to improve remote work, medicine, and learning capabilities while protecting data privacy; and Replacing outdated public-sector IT systems to increase flexibility and reliability in providing relief and serving families and businesses. After this crisis, technological innovation will remain critical to the nation’s economic strength—ensuring that the US remains globally competitive and achieves prosperity. The US must use this moment as a turning point, not only to address the immediate crisis but to bolster its technology and innovation edge to compete globally and respond to unforeseen challenges and crises in the long term.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Business, Innovation, COVID-19, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

39. A Procurement Path to Equity

Author:
Center for Urban Innovation
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Aspen Institute
Abstract:
Local governments are big buyers. Here in the U.S., our state and city governments collectively spend 1.6 trillion dollars per year. But for too long, how and with whom our local governments spend their money has reinforced economic inequities in our country. Minority-owned small businesses have been historically locked out of opportunities to contract with governments, and the current crisis has disproportionately impacted these very enterprises.
Topic:
Governance, Inequality, Business, Local, Equality, and Equity
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

40. Toward a Discursive Approach to Growth Models Social Blocs in the Politics of Digital Transformation

Author:
Sidney Rothstein
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The growth models perspective analyzes the role of social blocs in crafting countries’ economic policies, but its treatment of business power as purely structural prevents it from addressing an important question in the politics of digital transformation: How have new sectors with miniscule economic footprints been able to influence economic policy? This paper explores how tech and venture capital successfully lobbied for financial deregulation at the beginning of digital transformation in the United States. The paper argues that explaining the role of social blocs in digital transformation requires incorporating discourse analysis and develops a conceptual framework around three discursive components in the dynamics of social blocs: coordination, persuasion, and performativity. This framework contributes to theory development in the growth models perspective and illustrates how the concept of social blocs can help make sense of the politics of digital transformation.
Topic:
Business, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Digital Transformation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America