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1. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon

Author:
Adam Hakan
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Once a hotbed of pro-Qaddafi resistance, Abu Salim is now a stronghold dominated by Abdelghani al-Kikli (widely known as ‘Ghaniwa’) and his Stability Support Apparatus (SSA). Ghaniwa has consolidated power over Abu Salim—the main southern gateway into the Libyan capital of Tripoli—through violence. A Political Economy of Tripoli’s Abu Salim: The Rise of the Stability Support Apparatus as Hegemon—a new Briefing Paper from the Small Arms Survey’s Security Assessment In North Africa (SANA) project—examines how Ghaniwa’s methods have reshaped Abu Salim’s political economy, and how the hegemonic nature of this military consolidation has allowed the SSA to take on an outsized role in Libya’s broader political and economic spheres.
Topic:
Political Economy, Hegemony, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:
Libya, North Africa, and Tripoli

2. Diplomatic Defeat: Uncovering the low turnout to the Arab League meeting in Tripoli

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Libya’s outgoing Government of National Unity (GNU), led by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, failed to host a meeting of Arab foreign ministers in the capital Tripoli on January 21, 2023. The chief diplomats of most of the Arab states and the organization’s secretary-general boycotted the meeting. Representatives of only seven Arab states, including Tunisia’s and Algeria’s foreign ministers, attended the gathering, which was a diplomatic blow to the al-Dbeibah government.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Arab League, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

3. Autumn of the patriarch: How to help Tunisians defend their democracy

Author:
Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Recent arrests and protests in Tunisia are a sign of growing instability in the country and panic in the government over waning public support. President Kais Saied seized full power more than 18 months ago but he has spent his time embedding autocracy through constitutional reform rather than attending to Tunisia’s economic and social problems. The president’s indecisive and reclusive nature leaves Tunisia in economic limbo as he fails to show the leadership required, including to give confidence to international partners and financial institutions. Europeans have invested heavily in Tunisia. As the US contemplates disengaging from the country, the EU and its partners must assemble a ‘coalition of the concerned’ to put in place the support structures Tunisia will need to withstand Saied’s inevitable crash.
Topic:
Democracy, Domestic Politics, Instability, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

4. Informal Sector's Role in North African Economies Tied to Instability

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The July agreement between the EU and Tunisia on countering irregular migration indicates that support for North African economies is an increasingly important element of cooperation between the EU and countries in the region. A characteristic feature of these economies is the prevalence of the informal sector, where workers operate in extremely unstable conditions, prompting protests or decisions to migrate. To increase the effectiveness of its actions, the EU should therefore support North African countries in ensuring decent working conditions in this sector.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Informal Economy, Instability, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia

5. Terrorism in the Sahel Developments, Consequences of French Involvement and Options for European Security and Defence Policy

Author:
Naomi Moreno-Cosgrove
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
On August 15, 2022, the final contingent of Operation Barkhane crossed the border into Niger putting an end to almost a decade of French military intervention in Mali. The security void left by France in the country has now become the main means of competition between jihadist groups particularly in the tri-border area between Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Violent extremism together with community conflict over the access of natural resources, inter-ethnic violence, and the increasing number of internally displaced persons (IDP) continues to spill over towards the Gulf of Guinea, through the northern areas of Togo, Benin, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. While the number of fatalities show no sign of lowering, it seems unsuitable for France and its European counterparts to entirely desist their efforts in West Africa. At a time when the withdrawal of French forces from Mali has brought upon a new spin in the region’s conflict dynamics, this paper offers insights into the future of European engagement in the Sahel. It will do so by addressing the evolution of French intervention since 2013, assessing the current developments of the Sahel crisis after French involvement in Mali, and aiming at providing several entry points whereby the shift in paradigm could turn into an opportunity for French and European security and defence policies in the region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, European Union, Counter-terrorism, and Instability
Political Geography:
North Africa and Sahel

6. Tunisia’s Turbulence: On the Road to Economic and Political Collapse

Author:
Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Thousands of Tunisians took to the streets of the capital Tunis in mid-March, demonstrating against Tunisian president Kais Saied’s July 2021 power grab and the country’s ongoing economic crisis. Citing alleged threats to Tunisia’s political order, Saied dismissed the government on July 25, 2021, suspended parliament, and moved to rule by decree. Critics, including opposition Islamist parties but also the country’s powerful trade unions, civil society groups, and foreign experts have since assailed Saied’s moves, contending that he effectively re-imposed one-man rule on Tunisia, and secured unchecked control over all branches of government. This political crisis intensified in late March, after Saied dissolved the Tunisian parliament which convened online and voted to repeal his decrees. The March protest differed from previous ones, as it was organized by the anti-Islamist Free Destourian Party (FDP), which has been critical of democratic measures adopted in Tunisia after the 2011 revolution that overthrew Zayn al-ʾAbidin Ben ʿAli’s authoritarian regime. The protest, led by a right-wing party not unsympathetic to some of Saeid’s grievances, focused on the president and the deteriorating economic crisis.[1] It was another indication of Tunisia’s growing unrest.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Civil Unrest, Economic Crisis, and Instability
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

7. Fragile States Index 2015 – Annual Report

Author:
J. J. Messner, Nate Haken, Patricia Taft, Kendall Lawrence, Felipe Umana, Sebastian Pavlou, and Hannah Blyth
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Reform, Ebola, Democracy, Fragile States, Domestic Politics, Sustainability, Health Crisis, Instability, and Uprising
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Iran, Ukraine, Middle East, Finland, Eastern Europe, Greece, Libya, Cuba, North Africa, Lebanon, West Africa, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Global Focus, and United States of America