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31. Hamas's leadership struggle and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
When the West Bank and Gaza first split between two rival Palestinian governments in 2007, Western governments promised to turn the West Bank under President Mahmoud Abbas, their Fatah protégé, into a model state and reduce Gaza under its Islamist rulers, Hamas, to a pariah. Almost five years on, the tables have turned. While the West Bank slips into economic and political crisis, Gaza is fast reviving. Abbas finds himself bereft of a political horizon for achieving a two-state settlement and the state-building experiment of his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has reached an impasse. Gaza's economy, by contrast, has grown strongly under Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, who is experiencing a wave of increasing popularity, as Hamas looks to tie the enclave ever more closely to the political economies of North Africa, where the Arab awakening is bringing affiliated Islamist movements to power. A recent agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha, between Abbas and Hamas's exiled leader, Khalid Meshal, is intended to heal the split between Palestine's two halves. Under the agreement, the separate governments governing Gaza and the West Bank would be replaced by a single technocratic government under Abbas, which is a radical about-turn on the part of the exiled Hamas leadership that Hamas politicians in Gaza find difficult to swallow. For its own reasons, Israel too rejects the agreement. With so many previous attempts at intra-Palestinian reconciliation ending in failure and so many obstacles dogging this latest round, the prospects for the Doha agreement remain bleak, but not beyond the realm of the possible.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and North Africa

32. Furthering Democracy in Libya with Information Technology: Opportunities for the International Donor Community

Author:
Chris Jones, Sharon Kennedy, Siobhan Kerr, Joseph Mitchell, and Daniel Safayeni
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Social media played a central and celebrated role in the uprisings that took place in the Arab world in 2011, facilitating the organization and coordination of popular resistance to dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt. The use of social media channels to popularize and concentrate resistance was made possible, in part, by the recent growth of the information and communications technology (ICT) sector in the region. While the lack of economic growth, job opportunities and political agency were fundamental driving forces behind the Arab revolutions, ICT and social media were critical tools that helped transform the deep-seated discontent into a widespread social movement.
Topic:
Democratization and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, and Tunisia

33. The Politics of Security Sector Reform in Egypt

Author:
Hesham Sallam and Daniel Brumberg
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
In Egypt, security sector reform (SSR) hinges on achieving democratic reforms, particularly the reconstitution of an elected parliament and preparation of a new constitution that defines the roles and responsibilities of military and security institutions based on transparency, accountability, and respect for civilian authorities. In this highly political process, arranging the disengagement of Egypt's military from government and the economy will be essential. Democratically elected leaders will need to consult widely while keeping an open door to reformists in the security sector. At the same time, the police and security establishments must be transformed into effective, accountable, and politically neutral law-enforcement bodies that deliver human security and protect human rights. Downsizing the security services to a number consonant with its professional mission is vital. Egypt's new president will play a central—although not exclusive—role in advancing the above aims. He will have to forge a wide societal consensus on the boundaries of SSR. He will also have to reach an accommodation with military leaders to ensure that SSR initiatives receive their support. The responsibility for advancing SSR lies with Egypt's political community. The international community can help by supporting elected officials and providing technical expertise and economic support.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Arabia, North Africa, and Egypt

34. Security Sector Transformation in the Arab Awakening

Author:
Donald J. Planty
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Arab Awakening opened the door to democratic political change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Security sector reform (SSR) is an integral component of the nascent democratic process in the region. While SSR is a long-term process, it should be a key part of institution building in the new democracies. Democracy requires security institutions that are open, professional, and responsive to public needs. The transitions to democracy are varied in nature and scope. SSR will differ by country and must be tailored to the political realities and specific circumstances of each state. The international community can foster successful SSR processes by calibrating its assistance according to the reform efforts in each country. A general or “one-size-fits-all” approach to SSR will not be successful. A sense of political powerlessness, an unresponsive bureaucracy, a general lack of opportunity, economic stagnation (including high unemployment), and repressive security forces all contributed to the Arab Awakening. As a result of the upheaval, democratic forces in several of the MENA countries are pushing for transparency and accountability in the security services. SSR must be undertaken in a holistic manner, couched within the framework of overall democratic reform and linked to other broad policies such as justice sector reform, evolution of the political process, and economic development. SSR will only be achieved if it is integrated and pursued in unison with these larger processes of democratic change. The international community, especially the United States and the European Union, need to foster democratic developments and, in particular, to support and coordinate SSR.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Economics, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

35. Social Movements in the Middle East: A Sociological Analysis

Author:
Khalilollah Sardarnia
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
The prevailing outlook among analysts before the advent of the recent social movements in North Africa and a number of Arab Middle Eastern countries indicated that the region will continue to resist the wave of democratization. The fall of several authoritarian regimes and continuity of social movements has generated serious doubts in this outlook, leading to the appearance of promising horizons for democratization. This paper argues that these social movements originate from the exacerbating legitimacy crisis of authoritarian governments and rising political, social and economic dissatisfaction of the general public, including the youth and the modern middle class. This work seeks to answer the question: what are the major sociological origins and precipitating factors influencing the advent of social movements in the Middle East and North Africa? In response, it can be argued that the advent of social movements in a number of Middle East and North African countries is rooted in the legitimacy crisis, as well as rising political, social and economic dissatisfaction of the general public, the youth and the modern middle class in recent decades. The web-based social networks and cell phones acted as precipitating factors in the massive mobilization and integration of mass protests and those of the modern middle class and the fall of a number of authoritarian regimes. These movements are notably characterized by being comprehensive, Islamic, democratic, anti-despotic, independence-seeking, and highly reliant on new information and communications technologies. The web-based social networks served as a precipitating factor in massive mobilization of the aforementioned strata within the context of an exacerbated legitimacy crisis and the gap between the state and the society rather than as a structural deep-rooted factor.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Government, Islam, and Social Movement
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

36. The Holy Trinity of Democracy, Economic Development, and Security. EU Democratization Efforts Beyond its Borders - The Case of Tunisia

Author:
Assem Dandashly
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Kolleg-Forschergruppe (KFG)
Abstract:
The EU has been engaged in democracy promotion, human rights, and civil liberties in the Mediterranean countries for over two decades with results ranging from very limited success to total failure. The revolutions in the Arab world – that have caught the EU and Western countries by surprise – provide a window of opportunity for real democratic reforms in the region. The successful democratization in Tunisia will send positive messages to the neighboring countries. Why should the EU be more involved in supporting Tunisia's democratic transition? And what can the EU do to support Tunisia's efforts to build and reform its institutions and to move towards a consolidated democracy with a functioning market economy? Answering these research questions requires understanding the major failures of the EU in the Mediterranean region – the Union of the Mediterranean is on hold and conditionality (at least political conditionality) is problematic and questionable. Prior to the Dignity Revolution, security and stability were moving in the opposite direction to democracy –leading the EU to focus more on the former. Now, consolidating democracy, economic development, stability, and security on the EU's Southern borders are moving in the same direction. This paper argues that, first, supporting democracy is a necessary condition for guaranteeing stable and secure southern borders and, secondly, economic growth is a necessary condition for consolidating democracy and political reforms in Tunisia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Europe, Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

37. The International Role in Libya's Transition

Author:
Richard L. Garwin and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Following the death of Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, the situation in Libya fell largely out of the headlines, with the majority of reports focused on the fragile security environment there. Meanwhile, international attention has been fixed on the crisis in Syria.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria

38. The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States

Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The papers included in this report relate to a conference co-hosted by the New York University Abu Dhabi Institute, the NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) and the Brookings Institution on 21-22 February in Abu Dhabi on “The Use of Force, Crisis Diplomacy and the Responsibilities of States.”
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

39. The Uprisings and the Future of North Africa and the Middle East: The Vienna Seminar 2012

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
"Seldom in the history of the Middle East and North Africa have so many changes taken place so dramatically, so quickly, and at the same time." This observation, made by a participant at the International Peace Institute's 2012 Vienna Seminar, helps explain the world's current focus on the uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The purpose of the forty-second annual Vienna Seminar was to make sense of these changes and see what steps can be taken to encourage the positive trends, and to promote peace and security in the region.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Tunisia, and Vienna

40. Arab Spring, Turkish "Summer"? The trajectory of a pro-Western "moderate Islam"

Author:
ees van der Pijl
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The “moderate Islam” that has developed in Turkey could play a role in shaping the outcome of the Arab revolt that began in 2011. The modern Turkish state established by Atatürk after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire had to find ways to integrate Islam politically. Turkey was a late-industrialising country and the Islamic political current tended to have an anti-Western, antiliberal profile on this account. Two tendencies within Turkish political Islam are distinguished: one connecting religion to economic nationalism, the other primarily cultural and willing to accommodate to neoliberalism. The 1980 military coup geared the country to neoliberalism and cleared the way for this second tendency to rise to power through the Justice and Development Party (AKP) of R.T. Erdo ˘gan. For the West and the Gulf Arab states the export of this model to the Arab countries destabilised in the popular revolt would amount to a very favourable outcome. Gulf Arab capital was already involved in the opening up of state-controlled Arab economies, including Syria. Although the situation is still in flux, by following the Turkish model Muslim Brotherhood governments could potentially embrace political loyalty to the West and neoliberal capitalism.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa