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151. Term Limits for African Leaders Linked to Stability

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Progress toward institutionalizing the norm of presidential term limits in Africa has been mixed. Leaders in 5 countries have evaded term limits since 2015, bringing the number of countries lacking term limits to 18. In contrast, 21 African countries have upheld presidential term limits, and an additional 15 now have such limits on the books. These limits, in turn, have wide-ranging implications
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Political structure, Political stability, and Institutionalism
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, and Southern Africa

152. African Militant Islamist Groups Again on the Rise

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in Africa rose by 38 percent over the past year. All major groups show an increase in activity.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Militant Islam, Al Shabaab, and Boko Haram
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, and Southern Africa

153. Militant Islamist Group Activity in the Sahel Rises

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Expansion of violent events linked to an array of militant Islamist groups in the Sahel highlights the growing scope of security challenges facing this region.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Al Qaeda, Militant Islam, and Al Shabaab
Political Geography:
Africa, North Africa, West Africa, East Africa, and Sahel

154. Tunisia’s Fraying Governing Coalition Threatens to Undermine CVE/CT Strategy

Author:
Geoffrey P. Macdonald and Luke Waggoner
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The October suicide bombing in the heart of Tunis demonstrated the continued need for Tunisia’s government to refine and bolster its efforts to combat violent extremism. Yet, instability within the ruling coalition threatens to undermine much-needed reforms to Tunisia’s countering violent extremism (CVE) and counterterrorism (CT) strategies, which fail to address the underlying drivers of radicalization. The public’s rising expectations for economic and social progress following Tunisia’s 2011 revolution, which deposed Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s authoritarian government, have not been met. This has fostered disillusionment regarding democracy’s efficacy and has fed the rise of anti-establishment ideologies such as Islamic extremism. Only a stable governing coalition can develop CVE/CT polices that more effectively obstruct the path to radicalization and redress the persistent governance failures that inspire violent extremism.
Topic:
Government, Reform, Violent Extremism, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

155. The Niger-Libya Border: Securing It without Stabilising It?

Author:
Mathieu Pellerin
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Often described as an “ungoverned area”, the Niger-Libya border is nevertheless at the centre of major economic, political and security challenges. Both the Libyan authorities and the Nigerien state are struggling to establish tight control over this particularly isolated area. However, local actors who live there are making their own modes of governance, based on individual and so far, barely institutionalised relationships. These local forms of regulation provide states in the sub-region and their international partners with the opportunity to consider the possibilities of indirect administration. The current priority appears to be for outsourced forms of security, as the agendas of these actors are geared towards anti-terrorism and the fight against so-called irregular immigration. Indeed, this area is nowadays facing unprecedented militarisation, raising a key question: does excessive militarisation not risk producing more insecurity than it fights in the medium or long term? The stability of this border area is partly based on maintaining economic, political and social balance which risks being challenged by a purely security-based approach. Designing a holistic governance of security requires states being able to arbitrate sovereignly on the cornerstone of long-term human security.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Border Control, Counter-terrorism, and Borders
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, North Africa, and Niger

156. TWAIL and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) as a New Instrument of Domination: the Case of Libya

Author:
Tuğçe Kelleci and Marella Bodur Ün
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Third World Approaches to International Law (TWAIL) points to the interactions between international law and colonial legacy and problematizes the concepts of humanitarian intervention and the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) within this framework. Humanitarian intervention is usually discussed in relation to its legitimacy in international law and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. TWAIL, however, analyzes those interventions that are constructed through discourses of human rights and democracy, highlighting the importance of issues other than legality and legitimacy. A historical reading of the Libyan case through the prism of TWAIL not only provides us with an opportunity to assess TWAIL’s assumptions in relation to international law, humanitarian intervention and R2P but also reveals how international law and R2P are used to legitimize interventions of the West into the Third World.
Topic:
International Law, Humanitarian Intervention, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and UN Security Council
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

157. Green growth and its global-local meanings – Insights from Morocco

Author:
Cengiz Günay, Sherin Gharib, and Christian Haddad
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
Energy transition towards renewable energy sources (RES) has been a high priority for many industrial as well as developing countries. Besides its positive effects on the ambitions to mitigate climate change, energy transition has been also seen as a mean to increase energy independence and energy security. While some countries have been particularly successful in developing and deploying energy transition solutions (including technologies and governance models) others are at the beginnings. Particularly in developing countries there is growing interest in the transfer of RES solutions as they are often considered to be drivers for modernization and socio-economic development (Romer 1990; Gruber et al. 2017). The transfer of RES technologies, which includes not only turnkey power stations but also the transfer of the governance models, needed for successful implementation of technology in the hosting society and its long-term usage with as little impacts as possible on local communities and benefits for hosting countries at the same time, is considered a key in facilitating climate change mitigation efforts around the globe (Karakosta et al. 2010; Metz et al. 2000). In 2009, Morocco initiated an ambitious energy transition program. The goal is to cover 42 percent of its power generating capacity with RES by 2020 and to increase this to 52 percent by 2030 (RES Med). Moroc-co’s ambitious plans are often highlighted by various organizations in the international context as a model for deployment of RES in developing countries (Gruber et al. 2017). The country’s energy transition strategy mainly focuses on the construction of large and middle-size centralized solar energy plants. The largest project are the so called “Noor” (light) plants, a number of large and medium scale solar plants to be constructed across the country until 2020. The Noor plants are hoped to increase Morocco’s energy production, decrease the country’s dependence on fossil imports and even enable the export of energy to European and African neighbors. In turn, effects on electricity prices in Morocco are expected to remain low. Despite a clear preference for rather centralized energy solutions, mainly the result of state planning in the capital Rabat, the Moroccan state’s ambition of inducing “Green Growth” has also had effects on the regional, provincial and local levels. Many associations and initiatives defending, promoting and lobbying for climate change mitigation and renewable energy solutions have emerged at the local level. Green Growth and Morocco’s aims at de-centralizing the state’s administrative structure have opened new spaces for participation. Similar to Morocco, Austria has also developed ambitious plans for transition to climate friendly energy productions. The long-term vision is to reach 100 percent independence from fossil energy. In 2009, the so called Climate and Energy Model Regions (CEM) were established. The governance concept of Climate and Energy Model Regions (CEM) aims at promoting energy transition at the regional and local levels. Each CEM pursues the goal of becoming independent from fossil fuels by 2050 and thereby contributes to the overall national climate goals. The decentralization of climate goals, linking energy transition with regional development has reflected the country’s federal administrative and political structure. In that regard, this governance model represents a best practice for a decentralized policy approach to climate mitigation goals. As much as this often entails strong involvement and ownership on societal level, as much its success is dependent on a complex set of diverse political entrepreneurs on different political and administrative levels (national-federal-district and local). Most of the energy relevant issues are regulated by federal law, but the federal states are highly involved in the specification and implementation of these laws. The country’s energy strategy and measures for the reduction of emissions (including investments in renewables) are elaborated in collaboration between the federal government and the federal states. The measures taken are brought in line with the climate and energy package issued by the EU in 2008 which sets besides the promotion of renewables and the increase in energy efficiency the goal to reduce emissions until 2020 by 20 % (compared to 1990). This working paper builds on the insights gained from the LINKS project. LINKS (Linking climate change mitigation, energy security and regional development in climate and energy model regions in Austria) identified structural differences among the Austrian Climate Model Regions (urban, semi-urban and rural), human factors such as the willingness to use RES and to pay for them, as well as differing public acceptance and participatory governance measures. As a result, the two Austrian CEM regions of Güssing and Freistadt were determined as potential models to be transferred to Tata. These two CEMs illustrate the two opposite poles of different governance rationales. While the establishment of a CEM in Güssing was mainly initiated by the former mayor in a top-down process and enjoyed strong political support on the national and regional levels, Freistadt represents a bottom-up approach which has been located at the grassroots level and is informed by more participatory and flat governance structures. The overall objective of our work package was to assessing the transferability of these insights to different socio-political environments, such as Morocco’s Tata region. To do so, the working paper explores the visions and different notions of “green growth”. Moreover, it is concerned with the forms of participation of different stakeholders (including official authorities) in the making of renewable energy in a remote area of Morocco. Situated in the coun- try’s southeast, Tata has been designated as the location of one of the Noor solar plants. It analyzes the meanings produced in general discourses on energy policy in Tata and puts them into context with the political, territorial and economic orders that shape opportunity structures. Based on interviews, talks, a stakeholder forum and a focus group discussion, the paper identifies three threads of discourses and three perspectives on the Moroccan orders. This working paper was produced in the framework of LINKS Project, funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economic growth, Renewable Energy, and Transition
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

158. Continued Confrontations: Will ISIS Employ New Terrorist Tactics?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Despite that ISIS may have dealt with heavy blows, whether in the previously-dominated areas or the emerging ones, it is still able to stage terrorist attacks by employing various tactics, key among them the “lone- wolves” and “sleeper cells”. This has been evident in the recent terrorist operations in many countries, such as Tunisia and Morocco, as well as several European countries, which ISIS have threatened to target by using explosive belts, car-ramming and stabbing during Christmas holidays. Notably, some of such attacks have been carried out using tactics and methods that have not been widely used in the past. This raises questions about the ideological transformations that ISIS, its sleeper cells and sub-groups may have witnessed, given the new realities brought about by the war on the organization.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

159. A Reversal: Will al-Qaeda’s Influence Recede in the Coming Period?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Al-Qaeda has sought to exploit the 17th anniversary of the events of 11 September 2001 to assert its survival and ability to stay at the forefront of terrorist organizations worldwide. In doing so, it seems to be trying to cover up the multiple challenges facing it at the present stage, which may cause its influence to diminish in the medium and long term. Thus, it cannot be ruled out that the fears expressed by many of its leaders over the organization declining influence is the main factor that prompted Ayman al-Zawahiri to increase the media messages he sends to the organization cadres and members along with other organizations, especially its rivals, as well as the international and regional powers concerned with combating terrorism. It is a remarkable shift from what happened in the past years, which witnessed a relatively limited appearance of al-Zawahiri to comment on events with the aim of proving that he is still alive and interacting developments. The new development raises many questions about the significance of the flurry of messages, particularly that they come at a time the region is witnessing numerous important variables with profound impacts, such as the receding influence of the pro-al-Qaeda groups in Syria against the backdrop of the recent security and political arrangements.
Topic:
Terrorism, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Al Qaeda
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, Syria, and Maghreb

160. Helsinki’s Interests: Why Does Finland Show Interest in the Middle East?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
The recent years have witnessed a growing interest from Helsinki in the transformations and interactions of the Middle East, as evident in the inauguration of academic institutes in the region, visits by diplomatic and parliamentary delegations, activities with research centers, proposals for the resolution of conflicts between political parties, meetings between joint business councils and representatives of chambers of commerce and enhancing the cooperation with Arab intelligence agencies. The Finnish government has several objectives within this calculus.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Investment, and Currency
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Finland, Libya, North Africa, and Syria