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41. Myanmar: Storm Clouds on the Horizon

Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Myanmar's leaders continue to demonstrate that they have the political will and the vision to move the country decisively away from its authoritarian past, but the road to democracy is proving hard. President Thein Sein has declared the changes irreversible and worked to build a durable partnership with the opposition. While the process remains incomplete, political prisoners have been released, blacklists trimmed, freedom of assembly laws implemented, and media censorship abolished. But widespread ethnic violence in Rakhine State, targeting principally the Rohingya Muslim minority, has cast a dark cloud over the reform process and any further rupturing of intercommunal relations could threaten national stability. Elsewhere, social tensions are rising as more freedom allows local conflicts to resurface. A ceasefire in Kachin State remains elusive. Political leaders have conflicting views about how power should be shared under the constitution as well as after the 2015 election. Moral leadership is required now to calm tensions and new compromises will be needed if divisive confrontation is to be avoided.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

42. The Myanmar Economy: Tough Choices

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The new Government of Myanmar has astonished the world since it took office at the end of March 2011 by the pace and scope of policy changes it has introduced in a country that has underperformed most other Asian countries for decades. Not a single analyst inside or outside Myanmar before President Thein Sein’s inaugural address predicted the changes that many now label “breathtaking.” The global policy community and the media have focused heavily on the political changes and challenges, giving less attention to the economic changes and challenges than they probably deserve. This paper focuses on 21 high-priority economic issues facing the Thein Sein administration in mid-2012.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Southeast Asia and Myanmar

43. Burma/Myanmar's By-Elections: Will Personalities Trump Institutions?

Author:
Tin Maung Maung Than
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
By-elections in electoral democracies usually elicit very little excitement beyond the affected constituencies. However, Burma/Myanmar's recent by-elections held most of Asia and the West in rapt attention, with droves of international observers, media representatives, and curious foreigners flocking to Myanmar on an unprecedented scale. As anticipated, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won 43 of the 44 seats that it contested, subsequently hailed as the “victory of the people.” The lead-up, campaigning, and the actual voting, along with the post-election euphoria, resembled a regime-changing national election rather than a series of by-elections that secured the NLD a very minor 6.4 percent of the overall seats in the parliamentary Union Assembly's Lower and Upper Houses. The current government of President U Thein Sein most likely regarded these by-elections as a means of legitimizing its mandate to govern and enhance its own reform credentials.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, Politics, Regime Change, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Asia and Myanmar

44. The Significance of Burma/Myanmar's By-Elections

Author:
David I. Steinberg
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The drumbeat against the process and the potential results of the Burma/Myanmar by-elections of April 1, 2012 for 45 seats (37, or 11 percent in the Lower House of the bicameral legislature; 6, or 4 percent in the Upper House, and 2 in regional bodies) started before the polling began and the votes were counted. Human Rights Watch said they were a step forward, but not real reform. Campaign Burma UK wrote that it was impossible for them to be free and fair. And Aung San Suu Kyi, running for a seat, said they would be neither free nor fair. The plan to undercut their significance before they took place was evident.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Human Rights, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

45. Burma: A View from Rangoon

Author:
Larry M. Dinger
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Council of American Ambassadors
Abstract:
Burma (also known as Myanmar) is a land of contrasts. It is geographically the largest country in Southeast Asia, stretching from tropical beaches to Himalayan peaks. It is rich in resources, including natural gas, timber, and gems. Eighty years ago its people were generally acknowledged to be the best educated in the region, and their prospects for development were expected to be high. Yet today, Burma is the poorest country in Southeast Asia with a per capita GDP of about $625; governmental health and educational expenditures are pitifully small; and Burmese rank near the bottom in most human-development indexes. The ethnic Burman, mostly Buddhist majority lives mostly in the central plains; but more than one hundred other distinct ethnic groups exist, as do notable Christian, Muslim, and Hindu minorities. Visitors universally praise the hospitality of Burmese peoples; yet ethnic-based armed conflicts simmer and sometimes flare in border areas, and Burma receives constant international criticism for major human rights abuses.
Topic:
Development, Education, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

46. Myanmar: Major Reform Underway

Publication Date:
09-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Six months after the transition to a new, semi-civilian government, major changes are taking place in Myanmar. In the last two months, President Thein Sein has moved rapidly to begin implementing an ambitious reform agenda first set out in his March 2011 inaugural address. He is reaching out to long-time critics of the former regime, proposing that differences be put aside in order to work together for the good of the country. Aung San Suu Kyi has seized the opportunity, meeting the new leader in Naypyitaw and emerging with the conviction that he wants to achieve positive change. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seems convinced that Myanmar is heading in the right direction and may soon confer upon it the leadership of the organisation for 2014. This would energise reformers inside the country with real deadlines to work toward as they push for economic and political restructuring. Western policymakers should react to the improved situation and be ready to respond to major steps forward, such as a significant release of political prisoners.
Topic:
Democratization, Human Rights, Political Economy, and Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

47. Myanmar's Post-Election Landscape

Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The November 2010 elections in Myanmar were not free and fair and the country has not escaped authoritarian rule. Predictably, in such a tightly controlled poll, the regime's own Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) won a landslide victory leaving the military elite still in control. Together with the quarter of legislative seats reserved for soldiers, this means there will be little political space for opposition members in parliament. The new government that has been formed, and which will assume power in the coming weeks, also reflects the continued dominance of the old order with the president and one of the two vice presidents drawn from its ranks and a number of cabinet ministers recycled.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, and Myanmar

48. The Economy of Burma/Myanmar on the Eve of the 2010 Elections

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
07-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The government of Burma is undergoing a critical transition: Before the end of 2010, the military regime that has ruled the country since a palace coup in 1998 will hold an election based on a constitution drafted in a nondemocratic process and approved by a referendum in 2008. The referendum fell far short of global standards of credibility and the election is likely to yield a government that neither the antimilitary movement nor the international community view as legitimate. However, the constitution and election also may offer opportunities for further international involvement that began in the wake of Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Burma's lagging economic performance—socioeconomic indicators placed it among the world's most impoverished in 2000—is due to a simmering internal conflict based on ethnic and religious differences. Successive military regimes after the failure of Burma's parliamentary government in 1962 have managed to further alienate the population and monopolize the benefits of Burma's abundant natural resources. Growth-disabling economic policies and brutal suppression of dissent since 1988 have caused an exodus of political and economic refugees estimated to be in excess of 3 million. However, Burma occupies a strategic space in the Southeast Asian region. It is a major supplier of natural gas to Thailand and could be a major agricultural exporter, as it was before World War II. Also, Burma is arguably the greatest obstacle to the 2015 integration objectives of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its internal conflict contributes to tension between China and India. There is a glimmer of hope that the next government will consider economic policies conducive to sustainable economic growth, thereby improving the environment for political reconciliation. If so, the challenge for the international community will be to find ways to support economic policy changes in this direction that do not trigger a backlash from the country's military rulers. Though difficult, it may be possible to accomplish this through a patient economic strategy that involves more nuanced use of sanctions and effective collaboration with other actors in the region, particularly ASEAN.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
China, India, Burma, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar

49. Upholding the Responsibility to Protect in Burma/Myanmar

Publication Date:
08-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The situation in Burma/Myanmar remains grave. With elections scheduled for 7 November 2010 international attention on the country has increased. Such attention, and any policy action taken, must focus not only on the goal of democratic transition, and concerns about the regimes nuclear collaboration with North Korea, but also on the plight of Burma's ethnic minorities who continue to suffer atrocities at the hands of the government. These atrocities may rise to the level of crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing – crimes states committed themselves to protect populations from at the 2005 World Summit, as described in the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect policy brief dated 4 March 2010, “Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar.”
Topic:
Democratization, Genocide, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Asia, North Korea, Burma, and Myanmar

50. Applying the Responsibility to Protect to Burma/Myanmar

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
The Burmese junta, its armed forces known as the “Tatmadaw,” and other armed groups under government control are committing gross human rights violations against ethnic and religious minorities. Extrajudicial killings, torture, and forced labor are prevalent; rape and sexual abuse by the Tatmadaw are rampant; and from August 2008 through July 2009 alone, 75,000 civilians in the east, where armed conflict is ongoing, were forcibly displaced. The Tatmadaw shows a complete disregard for the principle of distinction, intentionally targeting civilians with impunity.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and Human Rights
Political Geography:
South Asia, Asia, Burma, and Myanmar