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42. The Effect of Civilian Casualties on Wartime Informing: Evidence from the Iraq War
- Author:
- Andrew Shaver and Jacob N. Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 02-2016
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
- Abstract:
- Scholars of civil war and insurgency have long posited that insurgent organizations and their state enemies incur costs for the collateral damage they cause. We provide the first direct quantitative evidence that wartime informing is affected by civilian casualties. Using newly declassified data on tip flow to Coalition forces in Iraq we find that information flow goes down after government forces inadvertently kill civilians and it goes up when insurgents do so. These results have strong policy implications; confirm a relationship long posited in the theoretical literature on insurgency; and are consistent with a broad range of circumstantial evidence on the topic.
- Topic:
- War, Insurgency, Counterinsurgency, Information Age, Civilians, and Casualties
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
43. Jordan’s Refugee Crisis
- Author:
- Alexandra Francis
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Syrian refugee crisis has exacerbated endemic political, economic, and resource challenges in Jordan. As the conflict in Syria enters a protracted state and public discontent and other tensions rise, Jordan has limited its humanitarian response. Yet, the roots of the kingdom’s challenges run deeper than the refugee crisis and if left unaddressed will be harbingers of instability. If Jordan is to confront its national challenges and continue to provide a safe haven for Syrian refugees, the country will depend on increased international support.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Political Economy, War, and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Jordan
44. Islamic State Primer
- Author:
- Robert Sedgwick
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Columbia International Affairs Online
- Abstract:
- A brief overview and timeline examining the origins and trajectory of the little known terror group that was initially shunned and finally disowned by al-Qaeda as it developed into the world's most feared militant Muslim organization.
- Topic:
- Islam, Post Colonialism, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, ISIS, and Islamic State
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
45. Migration and Refugee Governance in the Mediterranean: Europe and International Organisations at a Crossroads
- Author:
- Sarah Wolff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The death of Aylan, a 3-year-old boy on a Turkish beach, prompted European leaders and public opinions to acknowledge that Europe is the deadliest migration destination in the world. In spite of this disturbing truth, there is little agreement on an EU solution to the Syrian refugee crisis. In September 2015, the EU Interior Ministers struggled to agree over the relocation of 120,000 refugees through a common compulsory mechanism, as Eastern European countries oppose the idea of “sharing the burden.” Progress regarding other solutions such as a European rescue at-sea-mission, the delivery of humanitarian visas or the opening of legal means of migration have also met strong member state resistance. If Europe is not up to the task, can international organisations (IOs), often critical of European states for their inaction, impulse change? What influence do IOs have on EU and Mediterranean migration and refugee policies? This paper investigates how IOs have been trying to frame an alternative debate and the challenges they meet in promoting transregional governance.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Migration, War, Immigration, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
- Publication Identifier:
- 978-88-98650-66-8
- Publication Identifier Type:
- DOI
46. ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- September 2015 marked the one-year anniversary of President Barack Obama's speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Yet, ISIS celebrated in June its own first-year anniversary of setting up a state by conducting three nearly simultaneous terrorist operations in three different countries—France, Tunisia, and Kuwait. Just this past month, ISIS also shocked the world with its attacks in Paris and Beirut and its downing of a Russian airliner in Egypt, killing more than 400 people combined and injuring hundreds more. While nobody expected the destruction of a resilient and agile foe such as ISIS within a couple of years, it is deeply troubling that the coalition is having such a hard time even disrupting its activities.
- Topic:
- Islam, Terrorism, War, Counterinsurgency, Fragile/Failed State, and ISIS
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
47. Strategic Insights: Will the Russians Escalate in Syria?
- Author:
- Dr. W. Andrew Terill
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- In an unexpected effort to protect a key Middle Eastern ally, the Kremlin intervened in Syria with military forces in late September 2015. This effort was undertaken to protect the Bashar Assad regime from Islamist and secular rebels now threatening his regime. Moscow initiated this action with a limited force that may be primarily designed to prevent Assad’s ouster but does not have the capabilities to help him retake large tracks of the country from the rebel groups that are now holding them. The Russian leadership made the decision to use military units in Syria at some political cost, aware that it was poisoning relations with many conservative anti-Assad Arabs and complicating its troubled relationship with Western powers.1 At some point, the Russians will have to consider the questions of how well these efforts have met their goal of bolstering the regime and what will be their next moves. They may also be rapidly faced with pressure to escalate their commitment to support the regime, if current actions do not produce meaningful results. They may also learn the painful lesson of other great powers, that military intervention in the Middle East is often much more problematic than national leaders initially expect.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Civil War, Islam, Politics, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, and Syria
48. Accountability for Armed Contractors
- Author:
- Ian M. Ralby
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- On 16 September 2007, the accountability of private armed contractors became a global concern. A team of armed guards from the US company Blackwater Worldwide, operating on a US State Department contract, opened fire that day in Baghdad’s Nisor Square, killing seventeen Iraqi civilians and injuring an additional twenty. It took more than seven years before four of the individuals responsible were ultimately convicted of either first degree murder or voluntary manslaughter by a jury in a U.S. Federal District Court. A fifth member of the Blackwater team had previously pleaded guilty to manslaughter.[1] The initial lack of consequences and the slow speed of justice provided the watchful world with strong evidence that armed contractors operate in a zone of legal twilight, devoid of accountability. The rise of private armed contracting was one of the most distinctive operational developments of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, famously stated: “Our corporate goal is to do for the national security apparatus what FedEx did to the postal service.”[2] Throughout both conflicts, the hiring policies of several Western governments, particularly those of the United States, helped Blackwater and numerous other companies move toward that goal. By December 2008, for example, 69% of the United States’ total force in Afghanistan was comprised of private contractors, roughly 15% of which were armed.[3] While there are no reliable statistics on the size of the global private armed security industry, there is little doubt that it has grown and contracted with the surge and decline of Western engagement in armed conflict. New conflicts on the horizon, however, suggest the possibility of a resurgence of the industry, reigniting concerns about accountability. The proliferation of private armed security companies has coincided with a proliferation of initiatives aimed at developing accountability for the industry. Numerous codes, standards, mechanisms and proposals – developed by governments, international organizations, civil society groups, private companies, trade associations, individuals, academics and multi-stakeholder bodies – have sought to address different issues surrounding armed contractors. Most of them, however, have been developed in response to incidents that already occurred. This reactive approach to accountability, while useful for addressing past problems, may leave the industry exposed to future problems. In other words, a code, standard or mechanism set up to prevent another Nisor Square incident may be very effective in doing so, but may fail to prevent a different and even more worrying incident in the future. This article begins with a brief overview of the most credible accountability initiatives, suggesting that the resulting collection forms a patchwork, rather than a framework for governing the conduct of armed contractors. The analysis then focuses on the process of selecting contractors, with a particular emphasis on the US Government. While cost has been a key factor in determining selection, the various initiatives discussed have made it possible for accountability and quality to be added as essential metrics. Ultimately, however, the failure of the accountability initiatives to remain current, much less forward-looking, means that the objective determinants of ‘accountability and quality’ may not be fit for purpose as the US and other Western powers begin to engage the services of armed contractors for assistance in new conflicts...
- Topic:
- Security, War, Governance, Military Affairs, Regulation, and Accountability
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America
49. Organizative Culture and Military Innovation: the Case of the Israel Defense Forces / Cultura organizativa e innovación militar: el caso de las Fuerzas de Defensa de Israel
- Author:
- Javier Jordán
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The organizational culture influences the adaptation to change, also in the armies. This article presents a case study on the organizational culture of the Israel Defense Forces and the way it encouraged innovation after the deficiencies detected in the Lebanon war in the summer of 2006.
- Topic:
- War, Armed Forces, Hezbollah, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
50. South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns
- Author:
- Robert D. Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States has a number of interests and values at stake in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, or "South Asia" for the purposes of this analysis. But it also has a broader set of such concerns at stake regionally (in the greater Middle East, Eurasia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia)—and, of course, globally as well. Any long- term policy or strategy frame- work for South Asia needs to be built around the global and regional concerns that are most likely to persist across multiple changes in U.S. political leadership regardless of political party.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and India