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82. Implications of Russia’s Activities in the Middle East and North Africa Region for U.S. Strategy and Interests
- Author:
- Chen Kane and Miles A. Pomper
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia’s ability to project power into the region remains limited today, and the status quo seems tolerable. But there are risks to U.S. interests in the future. The United States’ military withdrawals from Afghanistan, the Gulf and Iraq have significantly affected both U.S. regional posture and perceptions of U.S. commitment. Against that backdrop, the United States confronts multiple challenges as it seeks to “do more with less” in the region. Russia’s opportunities in the region increase as U.S. involvement decreases. Moscow’s “low investment, high disruption” approach works because it leverages the self-interest of actors, stakeholders, and governments in pursuit of limited aims. The U.S. approach of “high investment, low disruption” to preserve favorable regional balances of power is more costly and affords the United States less latitude, since it is rooted in principles and values. Russia is well-positioned (along with China) to undermine U.S. interests incrementally. That is true in MENA itself and, given the impact of Russia’s activities in this region for U.S. strategic advantages, in other regions of importance to the U.S., such as Europe and Asia. Countering Moscow’s efforts now should, therefore, be an important element of a revised and more comprehensive, yet also tailored, U.S. approach to the MENA region. What is needed is an adapted approach that leverages the United States’ comparative advantages to mitigate Moscow’s influence and that includes shifting some of the current U.S. presence to a more agile and unpredictable posture. Throughout the report, regional countries are categorized into four groups reflecting their anticipated vulnerability to Russian influence-building: (1) “Russia’s friends” (Iran and Syria); (2) “Balancers critical to NATO’s power projection” (Libya and Turkey); (3) “U.S. friends requiring sustained attention” (Egypt and Iraq); and (4) “U.S. allies seeking limited engagement with Russia” (the GCC and Israel). The U.S. should tailor its efforts to: contain Russia’s influence in Iran and Syria, roll back Russia’s influence in Libya and Turkey, manage Russia’s influence — especially on the military and defense sectors —in Egypt and Iraq, and offer reassurance to the GCC and Israel in order to minimize Russian influence in those countries.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
83. The Forecast of the Number of Soldiers in the Saudi Arabian Army in Terms of Military Security
- Author:
- Bartosz Kozicki, Jaroslaw Zelkowski, Szymon Mitkow, and Mariusz Gointarczyk
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The study concerns forecasting the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army based on information obtained from the website: https://data.worldbank.org (The World Bank, 9.03.2020). The research began with a comparative analysis of the number of soldiers in the armies of Saudi Arabia and Russia. The idea for a comparative analysis of the number of armies of Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation arises from Russian policy in the region of the Middle East countries, including the impact on world oil prices. The comparative analysis showed the similarities and differences in the dynamics of changes in the number of both armies dynamically. Subsequently, the primary time series data analysis on the number of Saudi Arabian troops was performed. The study selected methods for predicting raw data: Holt’s exponential smoothing and Klein’s model for the future. The next stage of the research was forecasting and the analysis and evaluation of the obtained forecasts. Klein’s model was the best forecasting model. The forecast of the number of soldiers in the Saudi Arabian army for 2020 is 251454, and for 2021, it has increased to 251006. The study ends with a summary and conclusions.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
84. Strategic Reengagement in the Middle East
- Author:
- Brian Katulis and Peter Juul
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Center for American Progress - CAP
- Abstract:
- The Biden administration can rebalance America’s policy in the Middle East through diplomacy, economic statecraft, and security cooperation—all while shifting away from direct military action.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
85. China-Russia-Pakistan Strategic Triangle: Imperative Factors
- Author:
- Hussain Shaheed Soherwordi and Uzma Munshi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- China, a rising power and Russia, a great power of the past is currently pursuing the aspiration to regain its lost glory, are at the center stage of Asian geopolitics. Starting from the first decade of twenty first century, the extra tilt of Russia‟s moderate ally India towards the US is ringing alarm bells for China, Russia and Pakistan more or less with an equal spell. Indian tilt towards the US culminating in a nuclear deal between the two in 2008 (Baker, 2008), specifically, post nuclear deal strategic partnership provides the former with a punch to pose a challenge to its two sheer competitors Pakistan and China. In fact, this emerging engagement between Indo-US is based on their shared interest of complicating the security calculations of Pakistan and China. Thus, the strategic partnership between India and the US provides a significant variable to Pakistan to dramatically change the dimensions of its security and strategic relationship with Asian powers such as China and Russia. For Pakistan this partnership will provide it not only an option to maintain balance in the region vis a vis India but it will also provide it with an alternate to the US in the form of realigning its relationship with Russia and China. While shunning off increasing US sway in near abroad is in the interests of both China and Russia, so, this emerging strategic triangle will mutually reciprocate their respective interests. Although, India is obsessed with a desire to become regional hegemon independently pose a significant threat to regional balance and stability in South Asia, its strategic partnership with the US acts moderately as a force multiplier. So, for Pakistan being a major stakeholder in the regional affairs, prudence dictates to cultivate and enhance its strategic relationship with its time tested friend China as well with Russia. The current paper will attempt to access the imperative factors bringing China, Russia and Pakistan closer to form a strategic triangle. It will explore the political, geo-economic and geo-strategic areas of convergence for greater cooperation between this emerging triangle. What are prospects and challenges in the way of development of a strategic triangle between China- Russia and Pakistan that is emerging as a response to a direct threat from Indo-US strategic partnership to gain a hold over regional affairs?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, and Asia
86. BRI & CPEC: Strategic & Economic Depth for Pakistan
- Author:
- Hafeez Ullah Khan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- South Asian Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- CPEC project (China – Pakistan Economic Corridor) being the flagship project of Belt & Road Initiative initially witnessed a planned investment of $ 46.6 billion which Beijing intitated and now it is extended to $62 billion and would be completed in the next few years. CPEC is not only aimed at connecting Kashgar to Gwadar but it is also considered to be the Zipper of Central Asia with South Asia, Moscow and Beijing with the Middle East and Africa. CPEC is specifically envisioned beneficial for economic security for Pakistan in a crucial time when Pakistan is isolated and badly damaged by the War on Terror since September 2001. Islamabad and Beijing have developed strong ties despite their ideological differences. This research work sheds light on the economic cooperation between the two neighboring states i.e. China and Pakistan in the context of Beijing's huge investment in Pakistan. The study analyzes CPEC from political, economic, and social perspectives. The study reveals that CPEC is the venture of economic and strategic depth for Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Economic Growth, Economic Development, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and Middle East
87. Promoting European strategic sovereignty in the southern neighbourhood
- Author:
- Julien Barnes-Dacey and Anthony Dworkin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Events in the Middle East and North Africa strongly affect Europe, but other global and regional powers are determining the course of events in the region. Europe’s interests include migration, counter-terrorism, and open trade routes, but its larger goal should be to promote greater stability in the region. To achieve greater sovereignty, Europe needs to push back against rival powers, build leverage in armed conflicts, and be more effective in supporting reform. The EU should work towards greater European unity in the region, including through the use of flexible and open coalitions of member states.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, European Union, Marginalization, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and North Africa
88. Russia’s Increasing Stalemate in Southwest Syria
- Author:
- Alexey L. Khlebnikov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The town and province of Daraa in southwest Syria is known for being a “cradle of the Syrian revolution”. Six years after the start of the Syrian uprising, it has been included in one of the four de-escalation zones that Russia established in Syria striking deals between different opposition armed groups and Damascus, with the consent of external actors. The southwest de-escalation zone is comprised of three provinces – Daraa, al-Suwaida, and al-Quneitra – whose proximity to Israel has been a crucial factor in Moscow’s strategy in the region. The southwest Syria de-escalation zone has several peculiarities that make it distinct from the other zones, in particular its geography, i.e. its proximity to Israel, which has defined Russia’s very special and nuanced approach to it. At the same time, the Russian approach to dealing with the armed opposition groups within the zone was similar to the groups in other de-escalation zones. So, what makes Russia’s approach different?
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
89. Annexation Makes No Policy Sense
- Author:
- Daniel C. Kurtzer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- The fors and againsts of the West Bank’s annexation.
- Topic:
- Territorial Disputes, Borders, Annexation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank
90. The Disrupting Stabilizer
- Author:
- Samuel Ramani
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- How Russia’s military, diplomatic, and economic roles in the Mediterranean have developed in recent years
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Mediterranean