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832. Evidence from the Field: Understanding Changing Levels of Opium Poppy Cultivation in Afghanistan
- Author:
- David Mansfield and Adam Pain
- Publication Date:
- 11-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
- Abstract:
- For many rural households the cultivation of opium poppy represents the key means by which they can achieve welfare under the conditions of pervasive risk and insecurity in Afghanistan. This briefing paper argues that understanding changing levels of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan requires recognition of the multifunctional role of opium poppy cultivation in the livelihoods of rural Afghan households.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Rural, Drugs, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and Middle East
833. Iran’s Nuclear Challenge
- Author:
- Colin Dueck and Ray Takeyh
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- COLIN DUECK and RAY TAKEYH describe the political, ideological and security motivations behind Iran’s nuclear program and examine various strategic alternatives available to the United States. They conclude that the United States should pursue comprehensive, direct negotiations with Tehran on the nuclear issue, within an overarching framework of containment.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Negotiation, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
834. The U.S. and Iran After the NIE
- Author:
- Farideh Farhi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- The release of the National Intelligence Estimate regarding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, intentions, and policies created shock waves as well as sighs of relief in Washington and elsewhere. The assessment that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003, and that its declared enrichment program cannot be converted as easily or as quickly as assumed for use in a military program, immediately brought into question the notion that Iran’s nuclear program needs to be dealt with immediately and only through coercive mechanisms. Amid a notable amount of “spinning” the NIE’s conclusions, a slew of questions are in play regarding if and how the U.S. should alter its hard-edged policies toward the Islamic Republic. A consensus seems to have developed that the report has taken the military option off the table and made the sanctions process at play in the U.N. Security Council more difficult to pursue effectively. These dynamics gave longstanding proponents of direct and unconditional dialogue with Iran new opportunity to re-state their case.1 Calls for such negotiations also came from surprising new corners. In the words of Robert Kagan, co-founder of the hawkish Project for the New American Century, “it is hard to see what other policy options are available. This is the hand that has been dealt. The Bush administration needs to be smart and creative enough to play it well.”2
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
835. “The Indivisible Unity of the Nation:” Nationalisms that Tear Us Apart in Democratization Process
- Author:
- Ferhat Kentel, Savas Genc, and Meltem Ahıska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- This study examines Turkish nationalism as a nationalism that is reproduced while being consumed, regenerating in a different form, while considering it as stratagem set forth as a nationalism that is in the process of transformation. Thereby, the study argues that the strategy of modern secular nationalism endeavors to gain ground in the face of globalization and to control its existing status. Globalization provides individuals with a wider range of opportunities, while at the same time, it gives rise to an acute sense of insecurity. As a result of this insecurity, nationalism – as the ideology of the nation-state – is reproduced with different contents by adopting the discourse of “reunification” on the level of identity pertaining to the terms of class and culture and through religious and ethnic classes and identities, even encompassing regional and urban identities reflecting varying contents. After examining the manifestation of these different creations in terms of individuals, the study analyzes their relationship with religiosity. The path religiosities traverse in daily life practices also sheds light on the practices of nationalism. Neither a “real” nor “correct” religion exists in the “actual” practices of religion, nor is a “real” or “correct nationalism” present within the “actual” practices of nationalism. A fortiori, “how” nationalism is exercised and the “ways” and methods individuals utilize gain more importance.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Nationalism, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
836. Playing the Field: Alleviating US Energy Dependency on the Persian Gulf with Alternative Partners
- Author:
- Michael Coffey
- Publication Date:
- 09-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Diplomacy and International Relations, Seton Hall University
- Abstract:
- Energy security is poised to become as contentious an issue in the 21st century as ideology was in the 20th. Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for post-Soviet Russia to reclaim its great power status as an energy hegemon that doles out subsidized energy to friendly states and allies, implying that unfriendly states will find themselves short of such supplies in times of crisis. Chinese state-owned oil companies are on a procurement spree worldwide, as Beijing acquires oil and gas from rogue states otherwise ostracized by the world community, buying up stakes in future developments to ensure a long-term flow of energy. President George Bush committed the United States to energy independence (and even self-sufficiency) in his 2006 State of the Union address to Congress when he expressed a desire to make US reliance on Middle Eastern oil “a thing of the past.”1 Despite the president’s optimism, the goal of eliminating America’s dependency on Persian Gulf oil remains far-fetched. Energy independence for the United States will require as-yet undeveloped technologies and resources and, until these goals are realized, the United States must counterbalance current energy consumption trends by boosting supplies from non–Middle East producers. What follows is an assessment of countries outside of the Middle East that will have a direct impact on Washington’s energy security as the United States works to alleviate its Persian Gulf dependency. Some potential secondary producers of oil and gas that are expected to alleviate US dependency are illustrated in case studies on Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Trinidad & Tobago. Many of these energy partners share key aspects of insecurity common to developing states; they are often engaged in two of Charles Tilly’s four characteristic state activities.2 Extraction, primarily conducted through energy rents, allows these regimes to acquire the resources necessary to battle internal rivals. Eliminating internal threats, or state making, is a common preoccupation of developing states. The current international system usually obviates (or precludes) war making against external rivals. Thus, US security assistance to these countries can play a crucial role in supporting the state making process. Support for states that have a limited capacity to deal with internal threats, precisely because they are rentier states in a formative phase, will help the United States and its energy partners achieve their ultimate security goals.3 Development aid and military training in the Caucasus will likely prove beneficial to US interests; security/intelligence cooperation with Trinidad and Tobago will help safeguard energy in the Caribbean against terrorist threats; US policymakers will face tougher challenges in Venezuela and Nigeria, where President Hugo Chavez seems willing to cut off US oil and the resource-rich Niger River Delta region threatens secession.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Oil, Energy, Dependency, and Energy Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
837. Illusive Reform: Jordan's Stubborn Stability
- Author:
- Julia Choucair
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since independence in 1947, Jordan has shown a remarkable ability to survive as a political entity. Surrounded by regional conflict and starved of resources, it has endured a massive influx of Palestinian refugees and numerous coup attempts. For decades, the Hashemite monarchy has overcome these political and economic storms by weakening institutionalized opposition to its rule and relying on the distribution of benefits and privileges to create a cohesive support base and a security establishment loyal to the existing political order. The regime has been able to sustain this situation by capitalizing on Jordan's geographic centrality. Benefiting from Jordan's image as an oasis of stability in a deeply troubled region, the monarchy has been able to secure a flow of external assistance that has helped counteract the lack of natural resources and maintain domestic political stability. But the balance has always been precarious. The contemporary process of political reform in Jordan must be understood in this context.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Democratization, and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Jordan
838. Iran's Nuclear Program: America's Policy Options
- Author:
- Ted Galen Carpenter
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Although it is possible that negotiations between the leading powers in the international community and Iran may produce a settlement to the vexing issue of Iran's nuclear program, it is more likely that those negotiations will fail. If that happens, U.S. policymakers face a set of highly imperfect options.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Iran, and Middle East
839. The Rise and Fall of the Bush Doctrine: the Impact on Transatlantic Relations
- Author:
- Justin Vaisse
- Publication Date:
- 04-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
- Abstract:
- Between 2002 and 2005, a relatively coherent and profoundly renewed strategic approach to international relations was developed by the Bush administration. Premised on an optimistic assessment of great power relations (”a balance of power that favors freedom”), it emphasized the importance of promoting democracy as a way to solve many of the long-term political and security problems of the greater Middle East. It rested on the view that American military power and assertive diplomacy should be used to defeat tyrannies, challenge a pernicious status quo and coerce states into abandoning weapons of mass destruction and support for terrorism - without worrying too much about legitimacy or formal multilateralism. The Bush doctrine led to tensions with the Europeans, who for the most part shared neither the world view that underpinned it nor its optimism about possible results, especially as far as geopolitical stability, terrorism and weapons of mass destruction were concerned. Then, in 2005, two silent developments took place: the Bush administration, while insisting on staying the course rhetorically (through “transformational diplomacy”), reverted to classical realism in its actual diplomacy - largely for reasons of expediency. China and India, on the other hand, imposed themselves on the global agenda, bringing multipolarity back into the picture of the world to come. While generally closer to European views, the new American realist line remains distinct from the European insistence on strengthening the rules and institutions of global governance.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Terrorism, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, and Middle East
840. Israel/Hizbollah/Lebanon: Avoiding Renewed Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 11-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- UN Security Council Resolution 1701 halted the month- long fighting between Israel and Hizbollah but did little to resolve the underlying conflict and, if poorly handled, could help reignite it. The resolution has held remarkably well, with only limited violations. However, the temptation by either party to overreach could trigger renewed fighting. The greatest threats would be attempts by Israel or UN forces (UNIFIL) to use 1701 as a blunt means of disarming Hizbollah in the south or by Hizbollah to test UNIFIL's resolve. 1701 should be seen as a transitory instrument that can stabilise the border by containing both sides' military impulses until bolder action is taken to address both domestic Lebanese matters (reforming and democratising the political and electoral systems; building a strong sovereign state and army; resolving the question of Hizbollah's armaments) and, especially, regional issues (in particular re-launching the Syrian track and engaging Iran). In short the international community must be modest in implementing 1701 for as long as it is not prepared to be ambitious in its regional diplomatic efforts.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria