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771. "Power without Influence: The Bush Administration's Foreign Policy Failure in the Middle East"

Author:
Jeremy Pressman
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The administration of President George W. Bush was deeply involved in the Middle East, but its efforts did not advance U.S. national security. In the realms of counterterrorism, democracy promotion, and nonconventional proliferation, the Bush administration failed to achieve its objectives. Although the United States did not suffer a second direct attack after September 11, 2001, the terrorism situation worsened as many other countries came under attack and a new generation of terrorists trained in Iraq. Large regional powers such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia did not become more democratic, with no new leaders subject to popular mandate. The model used in Iraq of democratization by military force is risky, costly, and not replicable. Bush's policy exacerbated the problem of nuclear proliferation, expending tremendous resources on a nonexistent program in Iraq while bolstering Iran's geopolitical position. The administration failed because it relied too heavily on military force and too little on diplomacy, disregarded empiricism, and did not address long-standing policy contradictions. The case of the Bush administration makes clear that material power does not automatically translate into international influence.
Topic:
Security and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

772. Change They Can Believe In: To Make Israel Safe, Give Palestinians Their Due

Author:
Walter Russell Mead
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
If it hopes to bring peace to the Middle East, the Obama administration must put Palestinian politics and goals first.
Topic:
Security, Government, and War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

773. Energy and the 3 Levels of National Security: Differentiating Energy Concerns within a National Security Context

Author:
Phillip E. Cornell
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The past several years have seen a renewed interest in the confluence of energy security and national security policy. Defining the intersection between such wideranging policy areas has been predictably inconsistent, and highly dependent on respective national and agent-based interests. At both national and multinational levels, conflicting objectives and definitions have driven confused attempts to develop singular "energy security" policies within an international security context. Since 2006, NATO has been engaged in a concerted if arduous and controversial process of defining the value the organization adds to the security environment. The new U.S. administration has put energy security front and center on its agenda, particularly in relation to foreign and security policy, but a confused interagency jumble has left many hands on the rudder of foreign energy policy. In the media as well as policy circles, cut-offs of Russian gas, Somali piracy, SCADA system vulnerabilities, terrorist attacks on Middle East pipelines, nuclear safety, and volatile gasoline prices have been too often lumped together.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

774. Confidence Building between Turks and Iraqi Kurds

Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The Obama administration's “responsible redeployment” from Iraq is made even more urgent by the requirements resulting from worsening conditions in Afghanistan and Pakistan. For redeployment to occur on scale and on schedule, the United States seeks an end-state in Iraq that is stable and at peace with its neighbors. Simmering sectarian violence is inevitable, but it will not break Iraq. However, ethnic conflict between Arabs and Kurds could escalate into a major conflagration with regional implications.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

775. Fragile Intimacies: Marriage and Love in the Palestinian Camps of Jordan (1948-2001)

Author:
Stephanie Latte Abdallah
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This article focuses on conjugal love as an articulated, lived emotion; on relationships between spouses within the context of the family; and on how these emotions and relations have changed over time in Palestinian refugee camps in Jordan. Based on interviews with four generations of Palestinian camp women, the article charts evolving marital patterns and attitudes toward marriage in relation to changing political circumstances and diverse influences. Particular emphasis is given to the third generation and the emergence of individualization of choice and its consequences. The influence of the family and the role of protection in the formation of conjugal bonds are also addressed.
Topic:
Security and Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Jordan

776. Preventing Conflict Over Kurdistan

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The consequences of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq will doubtless be debated for years to come. One result, however, is already clear: the long suppressed nationalist aspirations of the Kurdish people now dispersed across four states—Iraq, Turkey, Iran, and Syria—have been aroused, perhaps irrevocably, by the war. Already in Iraq, Kurdish regions, which have benefited from Saddam Hussein's overthrow, have consolidated themselves into a federal region. The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is a reality and a force for further Kurdish empowerment as it seeks to incorporate other Kurdish-majority areas and the oil-rich Kirkuk province in particular into its domain. The KRG's existence and demands have already alarmed all of Iraq's neighbors and the Baghdad government. The issues are far from being settled. If ignored or badly handled, Kurdish aspirations have the potential to cause considerable instability and violence in Iraq and beyond at a particularly delicate time.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Nationalism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Kurdistan

777. How Common is the Common Foreign and Security Policy of the EU: Where does Turkey fit in?

Author:
Ceren Zeynep Ak, Paul Luif, and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This study has been co-authored by Paul Luif from OIIP, Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar and Ceren Zeynep Ak from TESEV. The objective has been to examine the patterns of convergence and/or divergence within the foreign policy orientations of Turkey and the EU as well as among the European Union member states – or to put it more precisely, to look at whether Turkey and the EU are on the same page when considering the foreign policy questions that form the basis of a Common Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union. This publication looks at the past trends in Foreign Policy decisions with a quantitative research. The research examines the past behavior of Turkey and the EU member states, and finds out that they actually converge more than what is believed. The examined behavior is derived from the voting data in the UN General Assembly over a certain period. This publication also evaluates and compares how much actual convergence existed and exists among the EU member states themselves. The authors show that there is actual convergence between Turkey and the EU member states, and sometimes this convergence is more than the amount of convergence among the EU member states.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, United Nations, and European Union
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

778. Almanac Turkey 2006-2008: Security Sector and Democratic Oversight

Author:
Ahmet İnsel and Onur Bayramoğlu
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Today it is vitally important that citizens examine the security sector with an aim towards democratization. In order to make such an examination more than just an useless exercise, it must be informed by objective data. Therefore, studies like the Almanac are an indispensable part of examining, debating and researching alternatives to the policies that public and private security actors impose on society, the instruments related to these policies and the solutions that these policies are aimed at. This second Almanac covers the three-year period from the beginning of 2006, when the first study was concluded, to the end of 2008. It also gives some information regarding the first half of 2009. In addition to examining the developments which occurred in the Introduction Ali Bayramo¤lu, Ahmet ‹nsel 2 Turkish security sector during this time, the Almanac also focuses on the discussions surrounding the position of security actors in political and social life. It attempts to summarize the historical background that triggered these developments and thus to elucidate both the continuities and the various divergences from historical patterns and trends in Turkish security sector policy. The most crucial debates in the history of the Republic regarding the political and social position of the security forces in Turkey took place between 2006 and 2008. The debates which followed the discovery of diaries belonging to retired admiral, Özden Örnek, gained new significance with the discovery in 2007 of weapons and ammunition that some retired and active-duty officers had hidden in their houses or buried. A clandestine network of relations between retired and active-duty military officers, police officers and civilians is at the center of the legal proceedings that have become known as the Ergenekon case, which remains on-going. The plans for a coup evidenced by other diaries and documents that came to light after the Özden Örnek diaries and during the Ergenekon investigation, as well as preparation for actions aimed at creating a general sense of insecurity in society, have demonstrated with amazing clarity just how important it is that security sector actors in Turkey be under the supervision of civilian political powers and, most importantly, the parliament.
Topic:
Security, Reform, Democracy, and Oversight
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

779. Security Sector Policy Report 1: The Security Sector in Turkey: Questions, Problems and Solutions

Author:
Hale Akay
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Security has been and is a problematic and contentious area in the Turkish political system due both to the structural, functional and organizational significance of the security sector within this system and to the autonomous and leading role that the security sector plays. This report discusses the various problems within the Turkish security sector by focusing on the armed forces and includes an analysis of the scholarship created by TESEV’s “Security Sector and Democratic Governance” Almanacs. It may be asserted that Turkey’s civil-military relations and the corresponding institutional structures possess three interrelated qualities: 1) An administrative and legislative structure that is constructed through historical continuity; deepened with every military intervention; institutionalized around a broad and ambiguous national security concept; and on several occasions, concealed behind a veil of secrecy. 2) A form of tutelage where the military sphere expands and the political sphere contracts; where the relationship between authority and responsibility is reversed; and where the military acts as the regulator, not the regulated. 3) An autonomous, institutionally isolated, and over-centralized organizational structure within the military. The analysis in this report primarily highlights these three qualities as well as the security-centered organizational structure in Turkey, and yields the following conclusions: Although significant progress towards civilianization has been recorded since the beginning of the reform process in the 2000s, particularly in the National Security Council (NSC), the definition of national security, on which the NSC and the Secretariat General of the NSC frameworks are based, remains unchanged. Prompted by a national security concept within which the bounds of internal and external security threats are still vague, NSC continues to operate as a center of power where official policies addressing a vast policy universe are made. Despite civilianization of the Secretariat General of the NSC (SGNSC), news stories on some personnel appointments indicate that the military retains its strong hold over internal security matters. At the same time, traditionally ambiguous concepts, like national security, and conventional practices, such as psychological operations, are passed down to new domestic security institutions by their ancestors. The informal mechanisms employed by the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) to exercise political influence, coupled with the allegations, currently addressed through judicial processes, against the TAF of planning direct military inventions and social engineering schemes, show that the tradition of military guardianship is intact. While some new regulations were introduced to the military’s organizational structure, the practices of concentrating decision-making power in, and of granting autonomy to, the center of the organizational hierarchy is still dominant. The militarization of the field of internal security resumes because secret by-laws and practices that lack legal justification or basis continue to prevail; and the confusion among security sector institutions regarding their corresponding authorities and responsibilities ensues. The changes that need to be implemented to resolve the above issues are grouped into three categories: 1) Regulations involving the redefinition of national security and the abolishment of the military’s role as the regime’s guardian; 2) proposals to change the autonomous organizational structure of the military; and 3) civilian capacity building measures that particularly include increasing the parliament’s powers to oversee the security sector.
Topic:
Security, Politics, Democracy, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

780. Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas

Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The policy of isolating Hamas and sanctioning Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is rising, harming both Gazans and Israelis. Economic conditions are ruinous, generating anger and despair. The credibility of President Mahmoud Abbas and other pragmatists has been further damaged. The peace process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, Hamas's hold on Gaza, purportedly the policy's principal target, has been consolidated. Various actors, apparently acknowledging the long-term unsustainability of the status quo, are weighing options. Worried at Hamas's growing military arsenal, Israel is considering a more ambitious and bloody military operation. But along with others, it also is tiptoeing around another, wiser course that involves a mutual ceasefire, international efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and an opening of Gaza's crossings and requires compromise by all concerned. Gaza's fate and the future of the peace process hang in the balance.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gaza