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321. Iraq's Al-Samoud: A Missile with Great Possibilities

Author:
Richard Speier
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A dispute is rapidly growing between UN inspectors and Baghdad concerning Iraq's stockpile of al-Samoud missiles. The UN is expected to order the destruction of these missiles today. According to Hans Blix, executive chairman of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission, the fact that these missiles are capable of attaining a range 22 percent greater than that allowed under UN restrictions is a "prima facie" case for their proscription. Yet, Iraqi deputy prime minister Tariq Aziz has said, "There is no serious violation," and it is unclear whether Baghdad would obey a destruction order. Understanding the significance of the al-Samoud requires a closer look at the missile's developmental history, technical capabilities, and strategic purpose.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

322. Special Policy Forum Report: Iran -- Democratic Evolution or Revolution?

Author:
Ladan Boroumand
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the tyrannical nature of the Iranian regime. This unfounded pessimism is predicated on a profound misreading of the Islamic Republic as a traditional religious government rather than a revolutionary regime.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

323. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq and the Middle East -- A View from Cairo

Author:
Osama el-Baz
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S.-Egyptian relations always have been a critical aspect of American involvement in the Middle East. Although Washington and Cairo have disagreed on certain issues, they have nevertheless maintained a significant partnership. As regional tensions mount amid the possibility of war with Iraq and continued violence on the Israeli-Palestinian front, it is important to take a fresh look at this partnership. Recently, the Egyptian government has conveyed its concerns to the United States on two major issues: the potential for war in Iraq and Washington's role in attaining Arab-Israeli peace.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, Egypt, and Cairo

324. Placing Iraq and Zarqawi in the Terror Web

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following Secretary of State Colin Powell's February 6 address to the United Nations Security Council, some questioned his description of the "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network." In fact, the relationship between Baghdad and terrorism mirrors the way in which today's international terrorist groups function: not as tightly structured hierarchies, but rather as shadowy networks that, when necessary, strike ad hoc tactical alliances bridging religious and ideological schisms. Osama bin Laden's recent call on Muslims to come to Iraq's defense, even as he derided the "infidel" regime in Baghdad, is a case in point.
Topic:
Security, Religion, Terrorism, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

325. Special Policy Forum Report: Jordan's Economic Upturn

Author:
Bassem Awadallah
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Jordan has always been regarded as a buffer state, wedged between turmoil to its east in Iraq and to its west in Israel and the West Bank. While those neighbors have faced turbulence in recent years, Jordan has enjoyed three years of substantial economic growth. Indeed, Jordan provides a positive example of what reform can accomplish in the Arab world.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jordan

326. Up Next: Al-Jazeera in English

Author:
Merissa Khurma
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Planning to target the English-speaking market for the first time in its history, the popular twenty-four-hour Arabic television news network al-Jazeera is working to launch a new English-language website sometime this spring. Upon its launch, the site will reach a new and diverse audience beyond the borders of the Arabic-speaking world. The Christian Science Monitor has even reported that this might be a first step toward the creation of an English-language television channel designed to broadcast controversial news programming in the United States "by satellite and cable."
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

327. Iran's Nuclear Program: Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's efforts to produce fissile material progress, and, most alarming, as North Korea appears poised to become a significant producer -- and perhaps supplier -- of fissile material.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, North Korea, and Arabia

328. Special Policy Forum Report: Iraq Crisis After the Blix Report -- Diplomatic and Military Options

Author:
Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, David Kay, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 27, Hans Blix, director of the UN Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC), delivered a straightforward report to the Security Council regarding Iraqi compliance with arms resolutions. Twelve years after taking up the obligation to disarm under UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 687, Baghdad still does not genuinely believe that it needs to disarm. Hence, asserting that inspections will work if given time is rather naive. Many in Europe have made this very argument, claiming that the Blix report is just the beginning of a long-term process. Yet, the mission of the inspectors under UNSCR 1441 (passed in November 2002) is to confirm that Iraq has made the decision to disarm and to verify that disarmament has in fact taken place; the Blix report shows that neither of these criteria has been met.
Topic:
Security, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Arabia

329. Impact of an Iraq Confrontation on Gulf States: Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics

Author:
Shafeeq Ghabra
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Regime change in Baghdad could do more than make Iraq a positive force in the Middle East instead of a source of trouble; it could also give a strong boost to liberalizing trends throughout the Middle East. Therefore, a war to topple Saddam Husayn's regime would create both opportunities and dangers for the region.
Topic:
Security, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Arabia

330. Why are the Turks Hesitating on Iraq?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On January 25, Secretary of State Colin Powell met Turkish prime minister Abdullah Gul and the chair of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Tayyip Erdogan, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Powell's meeting -- which followed a January 19 visit to Turkey by General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a December 6 visit by Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz -- was aimed at persuading Ankara to allow American troops entry into Turkey in order to prepare a northern front against Iraq. After nearly two months of negotiations, the Turkish government still appears undecided on this issue. Why are the Turks hesitant to cooperate with U.S. military plans, and how can Washington overcome Ankara's indecision? Recent developments in Turkey may help answer both of these questions.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia, and Switzerland