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191. The PKK's New Offensive: Implications for Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, and the United States

Author:
Soner Cagaptay and Ali Koknar
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 1, 2004, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- an organization that appears on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and whose attacks caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s -- declared that it had rescinded its unilateral "ceasefire" of February 2000. This declaration was quickly followed by an escalation of violence in southeastern Turkey. This development poses a threat to Turkey's internal security and to the European Union reform process that began after Ankara apprehended PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in February 1999. Ocalan's capture led to a drop in PKK violence and a relaxation in the country's political environment, catalyzing reforms on the Kurdish issue that had previously been deemed impossible (see PolicyWatch no. 786).
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

192. Istanbul NATO Summit: Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Simon Serfaty, and Philip Gordon
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, and Middle East

193. European Union Elections: Implications for Middle East Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 22, 2004, Philip Gordon, Simon Serfaty, and Soner Cagaptay addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gordon is a senior fellow and director of the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. He has also served as director for European affairs on the National Security Council. Dr. Serfaty is the director of the Europe Program and the Zbigniew Brzezinski chair in global security and geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a senior professor of U.S. foreign policy at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia. Dr. Cagaptay is coordinator of The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

194. Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part II): An Adaptive Enemy

Author:
Jeffrey White and Ryan Phillips
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During late May and early June 2004, Muqtada al-Sadr's revolt was challenged by continuing coalition military action and mounting Shi'i political and religious pressure. His militia was increasingly on the defensive, clinging tightly to defensive positions near key holy sites and disappearing from the streets whenever coalition military operations became too overwhelming. In response, Sadr initiated a combination of political and militant actions designed to deflect political pressure, expand his influence, and impede coalition military progress against his forces.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

195. Muqtada al-Sadr's Continuing Challenge to the Coalition (Part I): The U.S. Military Response

Author:
Jeffrey White and Ryan Phillips
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Muqtada al-Sadr represents a serious long-term political and military challenge to the coalition and the new Iraqi government. Open warfare between Sadr and the coalition first emerged on April 4, 2004, with "uprisings" by his militia, the so-called Mahdi Army, in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. Although Sadr has not achieved his objective of a broad-based Shi'i rebellion, coalition forces have not been able to bring him to justice or dissolve his militia. Both sides are now playing a high-stakes game. The coalition is betting that it can eliminate or reduce Sadr as a political force without causing a serious breach with the larger Shi'i community. Sadr is gambling that he can persist, even prosper, in the face of the coalition. Indeed, he has long-term political goals and is positioning himself for the upcoming elections. The prospects that the coalition can bring him under control at acceptable cost and risk remain uncertain.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

196. NATO, Iraq, and the Greater Middle East: Implications for the U.S.-Turkish Relationship

Author:
Egemen Bagis
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
For years, the Turkish Cypriots have been blamed for the Cyprus issue. Nevertheless, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan personally convinced UN secretary general Kofi Annan to open the fourth round of negotiations, and Rauf Denktas, president of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, was much more productive in these talks than was the Greek Cypriot leader. The conclusions emerging from the Annan Plan negotiations were the best obtainable result, even though they did not address all Turkish priorities. According to the plan, the Greek and Turkish Cypriots each submitted the plan's proposals to a separate referendum. Yet, only the Turkish Cypriot leadership stood behind its word and asked for a "yes" vote. With this, the Turkish Cypriots sent the message that they were ready to integrate into the international community. Unfortunately, the Greek Cypriot leadership backed off of its support for the agreement, and the Greek Cypriots consequently rejected the plan in their referendum. The European Union (EU) had promised Greek Cypriot accession regardless of their referendum result, however, and on May 1, Greek Cyprus entered the EU while the Turkish side remains unfairly punished by international sanctions. The destiny of the Turkish Cypriots should not rest in the hands of the Greek Cypriots, and the world has begun to recognize this. Now, lifting the sanctions on the Turkish Cyprus is Turkey's priority.
Topic:
Security, NATO, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Cyprus

197. Michael Stein Address on U.S. Middle East Policy: Iraq—The Way Forward

Author:
Stephen Hadley
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
You have heard President Bush talk about a forward strategy for freedom in the Middle East. The president's vision of the future for the Middle East is predicated on one clear principle: that the advance of freedom and democracy leads to peace and progress for all. As the president has said, as long as the Middle East is a place of tyranny and despair and anger, it will produce men and movements that threaten the safety of Americans and our friends. We seek the advance of democracy for the most practical of reasons: because democracies do not support terrorists or threaten the world with weapons of mass destruction.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Iraq, America, and Middle East

198. Relying on the Saudis: The Challenge for U.S. Oil Policy

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past week, oil prices have exceeded $40 per barrel for the first time since the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, and gasoline prices in parts of the United States are now more $2 per gallon. Contributing to this increase were heightened concerns about supply, particularly in the wake of a May 1 terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter. Two Americans and three other Westerners were killed in the attack, and the body of one of the victims was dragged through the streets behind the terrorists' vehicle. Following the incident, the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia urged Americans to leave the kingdom.
Topic:
Security, Oil, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, America, Middle East, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia

199. Greater Middle East Reform: Building on Literacy

Author:
Benjamin Orbach and Bjorn Delaney
Publication Date:
05-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Over the past two weeks, the Bush administration has circulated a revised draft of its Greater Middle East Initiative, a plan designed to support political, economic, and social reform throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds. According to news reports, the new draft -- a version of which will be presented at the G-8 Summit in June -- has a more limited scope than the draft leaked to an Arabic newspaper in February 2004 and criticized throughout the Arab world as a neo-imperial intervention. According to the Financial Times, the new draft contains five objectives that call for the establishment of the following elements: a democracy foundation, a democracy assistance group, a literacy corps, a micro-finance initiative, and a "forum for the future." For both substantive and strategic reasons, it is a positive sign that the literacy project -- a holdover from the original draft -- remains a core goal.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

200. Are All Politics Local? A Look at Palestinian Municipal Elections Results

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The first round of West Bank municipal balloting occurred on Thursday, December 23. Voting was held in twenty-six locations, ranging from Jericho to smaller towns and villages. This was the first round of local voting since 1976. The results—a Fatah victory but Hamas gains—have important implications for the next Palestinian elections.
Topic:
Security and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arab Countries