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21. The Saudi Revolution

Author:
Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
In contrast to the bottom-up Arab revolutions that took place over the past decade, the revolutionary processes currently underway in Saudi Arabia that aim to change the economic and social fabric in this conservative kingdom are driven top-down by Crown Prince and acting ruler Mohammad bin Salman from his palace in Riyadh. Bin Salman has a great deal of work to do, and it is to be hoped that his plans for changing the nature of the Saudi society and economy are more successful than several of his regional actions, led by the boycott of Qatar and the war in Yemen. In addition, it is doubtful whether the kingdom itself has the available capital and the know-how necessary to push the reforms forward. The Saudi revolution will need political and economic help from the West, because its failure will certainly have regional and international consequences. Success will require the younger generation in the kingdom to scale back its expectations and become accustomed to more austere living conditions. At the same time, Bin Salman will have to find ways of persuading foreign leaders and investors that his internal purges were designed to combat corruption and to devise means of moderating the internal pressures created by the reforms. Otherwise, both the potential achievements of the revolutionary reforms and regime stability itself are liable to be jeopardized.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, and Revolution
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Persian Gulf

22. Alone in Sa'dabad Palace: One Year since Rouhani’s Reelection

Author:
Raz Zimmt
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
One year after his reelection as President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani faces severe challenges at home and abroad. It is more difficult than ever for him to keep his promises to the public, especially his promises to improve the economic situation and expand individual freedom. His freedom of action is restricted by the conservatives controlling most of the power centers in Iran, and criticism of him by his traditional rivals on the conservative right, among the religious establishment, and in the Revolutionary Guards, as well as by his reformist supporters, is growing. The difficulties facing the President not only threaten his ability to ease the distress among Iranians; they threaten his political future in advance of the anticipated succession struggle for the post of Supreme Leader. Moreover, his failure is liable to exacerbate the public despair that is already evident in the ongoing wave of protest in the streets of Iran and further erode the legitimacy of the entire regime.
Topic:
Reform, Conservatism, Legitimacy, and Theocracy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

23. Prospects of cooperation on restoring stability and institutional reform in Syria

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy and Omran for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Report on the workshop: “Prospects of cooperation on restoring stability and institutional reform in Syria” Geneva, 21-22 September 2017.
Topic:
Reform, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, Syrian War, Institutions, and Transition
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Syria

24. Autonomous Reform vs Global Isomorphism: Explaining Iran’s Success in Reducing Fertility

Author:
Masoomeh Khandan and Lant Pritchett
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
A long-standing literature in the sociology of organizations (e.g., DiMaggio and Powell 1983) suggests that, as change agents face uncertainty about actions and outcomes, they often seek legitimacy through isomorphism: adopting structures, policies and reforms similar (at least in appearance) to those deemed successful elsewhere. We examine history’s most rapid reduction of fertility—from 8.4 in 1985 to 2.4 in 2002, in rural Iran—as an example of successful autonomous reform. The Iranian state, which was self-consciously cut off from nearly all of the traditional vectors of global isomorphism, initiated a successful behavioral change in a domain (family planning) perhaps unexpected for an Islamic state. We describe and explain the Iranian approach, in particular the rural program, contrasting it with the global strategy of adopting universal "best practices."
Topic:
Governance, Health Care Policy, Reform, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

25. Making Saudi Arabia Fun Again?

Author:
Salman al-Dosari, Aziza al-Manea, 'Adel Khamis al-Zahrani, Hind al-Mutairi, and Abdulrahman al-Rashed
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The General Entertainment Authority was created last year as part of Saudi Arabia’s “Vision 2030” plan. The primary goal of Vision 2030 is to diversify Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy, but it also aims to foster a “vibrant society” with “meaningful entertainment for citizens.” Public cinemas are banned in the kingdom, and some Saudis seek diversion abroad, often in nearby Bahrain and Dubai. So far, the General Entertainment Authority has provoked a mixed reaction: some have lauded its work to bring more cultural events to Saudi Arabia, while others accuse it of moving too quickly, and not offering enough options to less wealthy Saudis. Here are excerpts of what five Saudi pundits had to say about the issue.
Topic:
Culture, Reform, Media, News Analysis, and Leisure
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

26. Tunisia: “Unemployment has killed me”

Author:
JMEPP
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
The Tunisian revolution of 2010-11 has been understood as a point of rupture after years of worsening job prospects and living standards in the country. Some have claimed it highlighted the inefficacy of Tunisia’s development policies, while other studies saw a link between high rates of literacy, lack of economic opportunities, and protests against the state. One should, however, be cautious of taking an economically deterministic approach to Tunisia’s uprising. Many countries whose citizens are mired in deep poverty and rampant unemployment are not in a state of revolt. Other factors such as pre-existing social networks (like trade unions and family ties) also play a major role in shaping political events. Furthermore, economic statistics in North African countries, such as Tunisia, are often manipulated for political reasons.
Topic:
Politics, Poverty, Popular Revolt, Reform, Economy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

27. Women in Municipalities, Municipality for Women

Author:
Ulaş Bayraktar
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Regulatory reforms are not sufficient to increase the representation of women, examination of sociological causes is essential to better comprehend the reasons behind the low ratio of women representation. This report explores the relation between women representation and services provided for women in all metropolitan municipalities in Turkey. Both the gender roles and governance processes need to be analyzed together to understand this relationship. Furthermore, the quality of representation and services are examined in terms of gender awareness. While the findings of fieldwork in Aydın, Gaziantep, İstanbul, Konya and Ordu, and a detailed desk research of 11 cities identify the problems regarding gender awareness, they aim to provide concrete policy recommendations for future implementations.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Governance, Reform, Inequality, Representation, Urban, and Services
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

28. How to Reverse Five Years of Failure on Bahrain

Author:
Human Rights First
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
On the fifth anniversary of the mass protests in Bahrain that threatened to bring down the country’s autocratic regime, Bahrainis continue to suffer severe repression and political instability. Although the scale of mass arrests and torture the government used to suppress the uprising in March, April, and May of 2011 has diminished, and there have been some largely cosmetic reforms introduced since then, arbitrary arrests and torture in custody continue. Leading human rights activists and peaceful opposition leaders who were able to work relatively unimpeded since 2011 are now in jail, forced into exile, or facing trumped-up charges. The leading civil society and nonviolent political opposition figures arrested and tortured in 2011 remain in prison and there seems to be no prospect of any political dialogue between the government and opposition groups. The protests have not stopped, and a minority have taken on a violent edge, with over a dozen policemen killed since 2011. The country’s prisons are bulging with political detainees, many of whom were sentenced in mass trials after an unfair judicial process. This blueprint draws on dozens of interviews with Bahraini human rights defenders, civil society activists, journalists, academics, families of detainees, lawyers, U.S. government officials, and others. Despite repeated requests for permission to access Bahrain, Human Rights First has been denied entry to the country since 2012. This report examines conditions in Bahrain, the strengths and shortcomings of the U.S. response, and potential opportunities for the U.S. government to support civil society and strengthen respect for human rights. Though the smallest country in the Middle East, Bahrain exemplifies several of the major challenges for U.S. policy in the region. 2016 promises to be a defining year as a series of issues converge to threaten Bahrain, including: sectarian tensions exploited by ISIL and other Sunni extremists and by Shi’a-dominated Iran; economic vulnerability linked to sharply falling oil prices; corruption and political instability; a lack of reform leaving the root grievances of the large scale public protests unresolved; and U.S. government support for an authoritarian status quo seen as the best way of protecting major military investments—in Bahrain’s case, the U.S. Naval Fifth Fleet base. This year will also be important as President Obama shapes his legacy in the Middle East. In 2009, at the start of his presidency, he delivered a message of hope in Cairo: “America does not presume to know what is best for everyone, just as we would not presume to pick the outcome of a peaceful election. But I do have an unyielding belief that all people yearn for certain things: the ability to speak your mind and have a say in how you are governed; confidence in the rule of law and the equal administration of justice; government that is transparent and doesn't steal from the people; the freedom to live as you choose. These are not just American ideas; they are human rights. And that is why we will support them everywhere.” Much has changed in the intervening years. In his speech to the U.N. General Assembly in September 2015, President Obama opted for analysis rather than exhortation, noting, “repression cannot forge the social cohesion for nations to succeed. The history of the last two decades proves that in today’s world, dictatorships are unstable. The strongmen of today become the spark of revolution tomorrow.” He continued: “I believe a government that suppresses peaceful dissent is not showing strength; it is showing weakness and it is showing fear. History shows that regimes who fear their own people will eventually crumble, but strong institutions built on the consent of the governed endure long after any one individual is gone.” Yet the U.S. government’s handling of the enduring crisis in Bahrain has too often failed to draw obvious conclusions from the administration’s own analysis of the detrimental impact of human rights violations on stability and progress. As a result, in the absence of actions and policies that would suggest the contrary, many in Bahrain and across the region view the Obama Administration as supportive of the repressive leadership in Manama. This support for the dictatorship is rendering Bahrain less stable, undermining U.S. efforts to prevent violent extremism, and further damaging Washington’s credibility in the region.
Topic:
Human Rights, Foreign Aid, Reform, and Protests
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Bahrain, and Manama

29. Economic Integration in the Middle East

Author:
Shahrokh Fardoust
Publication Date:
06-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The region has incurred huge economic and social losses from poor economic management and conflicts requiring massive military outlays. A policy shift is needed to deploy its substantial human, natural, and financial assets more efficiently through adopting economic and social policies that lead to more rapid and inclusive economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa. The four most powerful players in the region—Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, and Turkey—need to spearhead regional political and economic stabilization to address the root problems. Major regional infrastructure projects in energy, water, and transport are needed to better integrate their economies and expand intra-regional and world-wide trade. This policy paper argues that the major regional players should each follow a coherent long-term development strategy requiring four prongs plus cooperation: Reduce regional tensions and end conflicts through diplomacy and by recognizing that the current approaches are impeding investment and economic growth. Undertake significant economic and institutional reforms at home to remove binding constraints on growth, revitalize the private sector, improve financial access by small and medium-sized businesses, and improve the quality of education. Focus on well-targeted policies and structural reforms that would lead to significant reductions in youth employment and increased female labor force participation; and introduce cuts in military expenditures as regional tensions subside, and reallocate public investment savings to clean energy and infrastructure investments. Increase inter- and intra-regional cooperation and trade, initiate regional projects in partnership with the private sector in areas such as tourism, air and ground transport, regional energy and water, regional health and education, and research hubs. To support these initiatives, a regional development and reconstruction program supported by a 'mini-Marshall Plan' is urgently needed.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, Reform, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

30. From Activism to Artivism: New Forms of Youth Activism in the Aftermath of 20 February Movement.

Author:
Mohamed El Hachimi
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Abstract:
Like many countries of the MENA region, Morocco has witnessed one of the most vigorous and dynamic youth protest in its modern history during the so-called Arab uprisings. To face this unprecedented form of youth political action, the strategy of the State consisted in containing youth protest by a twofold policy: conducting constitutional reform and trying to de-legitimize the radicals. The Policy Brief analyses what impact this strategy may have had on youth activism in Morocco. It focuses on the way the Moroccan youth movement(s) is adapting to the response of the regime. In this regard, it shows that while the youth movement(s) did not change its strategic objective (parliamentary monarchy) it is progressively changing the means to achieve it.
Topic:
Democratization, Politics, Youth Culture, Popular Revolt, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa