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21. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

22. Iranian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine and Nuclear Options

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The current survey is an Update, rather than a comprehensive check on Iranian public attitudes. This interim report covers findings on two unfolding security challenges – Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Ukraine – and their potential interconnections.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Middle East

23. Gender Attitudes and Trends in MENA

Author:
Mary Clare Roche
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Gender equality is far from achieved in MENA. Clear majorities in most countries surveyed hold that women should not play equal roles to men in both public and private spheres. Yet, there are also signs of change. In the past decade and a half of Arab Barometer surveys, public opinion across the Middle East and North Africa has trended towards gender equality. This is not only a result of younger generations with more liberal ideas of social norms becoming older, but an actual shift in perceptions across generations. In particular, agreement with the statements that “men are better at political leadership than women” and “university education is more important for men than women” has dropped sharply across many countries Arab Barometer has surveyed. The survey always examines perceptions of violence against women. There is a widespread perception that violence against women has been increasing in the region. This is in line with the World Bank’s assessment that gender-based violence has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in MENA.1 However, the gap between men and women’s perceptions of violence is significant, with women being far more likely to say the level of violence has increased. In order to appropriately address the issue of gender-based violence, conversations need to be facilitated across genders. Another challenge for women in MENA relates to employment opportunities. Labor force participation rates for women are the lowest of any region in the world.2 However, results from Arab Barometer make it clear that most citizens perceive structural barriers to have a greater impact than cultural barriers, meaning governments could more readily develop policies to address these challenges.
Topic:
Civil Society, Culture, Public Opinion, Equality, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and MENA

24. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights

Author:
Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

25. Racial Discrimination and Anti-Blackness in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Nisrine Hilizah
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
The issue of race and race relations has recently gained increased salience in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Increased levels of migration to and through a number of MENA countries and the historic marginalization of Black communities in the region have brought some of these issues to the forefront. However, there has been scant attention to the views of publics across the region toward such issues. Arab Barometer‘s Seventh Wave is the first survey to systematically examine the degree to which citizens across MENA perceive racial discrimination and anti-Black discrimination to be a problem in their countries. The results suggest that citizens in surveyed countries understand and view racial discrimination differently from anti-Black discrimination. In most countries surveyed, majorities affirm that racial discrimination is a serious problem. Yet, only a minority of citizens report that discrimination against Black individuals is a problem to a great or medium extent in all but two countries. Furthermore, only in Tunisia is there a majority who think both racial discrimination and discrimination against Black individuals is a problem. This raises questions for further research on how MENA citizens understand “race” and on the extent to which there is awareness of anti-Black discrimination in their countries.
Topic:
Migration, Public Opinion, Discrimination, Racism, and Anti-Blackness
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

26. Climate Change and the Environment in the Middle East and North Africa 2021-2022

Author:
Mohamed Abufalgha
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Citizens across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) are well-aware of the environmental challenges facing their countries and the region at large. Among a number of environmental issues, access to clean water stands out as the most important challenge troubling pluralities in all countries surveyed in Arab Barometers Seventh Wave, followed by waste management and air quality. MENA citizens differ, however, in their perceptions of the most pressing water-related issues facing their communities. In Egypt, Iraq, Tunisia, Sudan, and Jordan, at least half cite pollution of drinking water as the main water issue while pluralities do the same in Lebanon and Palestine. In Kuwait and Libya, pollution of waterways is a more important issue while Mauritanians and Algerians voice more concern regarding lack of water resources than other water issues. The majorities of people in all countries surveyed hold each other and their governments responsible for contributing to the environmental challenges facing the region. This view transcends all demographic differences in most countries as people share the view despite differences in age, education, income, and gender. In response to climate change, at least pluralities want their governments to do more in all countries surveyed. Only small minorities in all countries say they want their governments to do less on this front. Support for more government involvement in addressing climate change tends to be more pronounced among urbanites and those whose income covers their expenses in most countries. When compared to other issues, like food insecurity, subsidies, or education, however, the environment ranks lowest in the list of priorities for government spending as well as preference for foreign aid.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

27. Lebanon Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Lebanon’s deep political and economic crisis continues unabated. There has been no resolution to the financial crisis that has plagued the country since 2019 while the port area of Beirut remains a dangerous area two years after the explosion. The COVID-19 pandemic has further compounded the situation. In the onslaught of public health and financial disasters, Lebanon has become a country of extremes. Arab Barometer captured many record highs and lows in views of citizens compared with any previous survey in any foreign country. Among others, all-time lows are seen in satisfaction with the government, interpersonal trust, and economic outlook, while perceptions of government corruption is at an all-time high.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, and Freedom
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

28. Iraq Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
The challenges Iraq has faced between 2021 and 2022 are numerous but not new: political impasses, violent crackdowns on protests, foreign interference, the economic and social fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, sand and dust storms, electricity shortages, and protracted internal displacement are among the few. While once seen as a way of ushering in solutions to these challenges, the October 2021 parliamentary elections instead left in their wake a wave of political turbulence that surged in the summer of 2022. In June, MPs of the Sadrist Movement, led by populist Shiia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr, resigned after failing to build a coalition, despite having won the plurality of seats. The political stalemate came to a head in July. Iraqi protesters stormed and occupied parliament ahead of a session where the Coordination Framework, an Iran-backed alliance of Shiite parties that rival the Sadrist movement, was set to gather to elect a new prime minister. Violent protests spilled into August and onto the streets of Baghdad and Southern Iraq, leaving 30 dead and scores more injured. Findings from Arab Barometer’s seventh wave in Iraq predate but to an extent foreshadow the frustration that peaked in the summer of 2022. Citizens perceive corruption to be as high as their trust in political institutions is low. With a plurality seeing the parliamentary elections as significantly flawed, Iraqis bemoan the lack of governmental responsiveness to their grievances. Yet, there is no consensus about what the biggest domestic challenges are, let alone what solutions to them are, or what avenues provide the best course of redress. If there is one theme that runs through citizens’ evaluations of economic and political conditions in Iraq, it is uncertainty. Iraqis appear to be in agreement that there is no silver bullet solution, but whatever reform the system demands, Iraqis increasingly want it immediately rather than incrementally. Affected populations are diverse, but no one is unscathed.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

29. Jordan Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Compared with other countries in the region, Jordan has long been seen as an island of stability. Analysts have long predicted that unrest must be coming due to myriad challenges over the last three decades. Yet, such events have failed to come to pass. The regime continues on relatively unchanged even as regional events such as the Arab Uprisings of 2011 rocked those elsewhere in the region. Under the surface, however, changes in public opinion suggest potential bumps in the road ahead. Views of the government and key political actors have plummeted over the past decade. For example, trust in the government is now 41 points lower than at the time of the Arab Uprisings. Confidence in other political institutions, such as parliament, have also declined. Today, the only major institutions with high levels of trust is the armed forces. The main driver of the loss of confidence in the government is its inability to solve Jordan’s economic challenges. When asked about the most critical problem facing the country, nearly two-thirds of Jordanians say the economy. Elsewhere in the region, fewer than half say this is the biggest challenge. Commensurately, ratings of the economy have declined dramatically over the last fifteen years, with Jordanians being 40 points less likely to say it is good today than in 2006. Critically, hope for the future is also in decline. Only a quarter of Jordanians expect the economy to improve in the coming years, which is down nearly 20 points since 2012.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Politics, Governance, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

30. Iranian Public Opinion at the Start of the Biden Administration: Report

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
This report covers findings from two surveys fielded in September and early October 2020 and late January through early February 2021 to assess how Iranians were faring as the covid-19 pandemic intensified the challenges their country was already facing, what they thought about the parliamentary election in Iran and the presidential election in the United States, and how the inauguration of Joe Biden impacted their attitudes towards nuclear diplomacy and regional security. Iran was one of the earliest countries to be hard-hit by the novel coronavirus, with the country’s first cases confirmed on February 13, 2020, two days before the parliamentary election, senior officials among those soon infected, and high death rates reported. Western reporting depicted widespread government incompetence and cover-ups exacerbating the pandemic’s toll. As in other countries, Iranian officials struggled to decide whether to close schools, curtail economic activities, and restrict religious observances in hopes of slowing the virus’ spread, but cases and deaths remained high through 2020. When we fielded the first survey wave, the daily number of new confirmed covid-19 cases in Iran was starting to climb sharply again after having been relatively flat since May. Some world leaders, including the U.N. Secretary General, called for an easing of sanctions on Iran as part of global efforts to fight the pandemic. The United States, which had withdrawn from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, maintained that medicine, personal protective equipment, and other humanitarian supplies were exempt from the steadily increasing sanctions applied as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign. But, the United States’ designation in September 2019 of the Central Bank of Iran as a terrorist organization made most foreign suppliers of humanitarian goods reluctant to sell to Iran. A decision in October 2020 to also designate the few Iranian banks that were not previously subject to secondary sanctions further impeded humanitarian trade, caused another sharp drop in the value of Iran’s currency, and had other negative economic effects. The Trump administration’s stated objective was to keep imposing more sanctions until Iran acquiesced to a long list of U.S. demands articulated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The original twelve points include the types of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that the government rejected during previous negotiations and that the Iranian public has consistently opposed. It also included stopping development of nuclear-capable missiles and ending support for various groups throughout the Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, and International Community
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America