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181. Yemen: Fear of Failure

Author:
Ginny Hill
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Yemen presents a potent combination of problems for policy-makers confronting the prospect of state failure in this strategically important Red Sea country. It is the poorest state in the Arab world, with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources. President Saleh faces an intermittent civil war in the north, a southern separatist movement and resurgent terrorist groups. Yemen's jihadi networks appear to be growing as operating conditions in Iraq and Saudi Arabia become more difficult. The underlying drivers for future instability are economic. The state budget is heavily dependent on revenue from dwindling oil supplies. Yemen's window of opportunity to shape its own future and create a post-oil economy is narrowing.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Arab Countries, and Saudi Arabia

182. Islamists in Politics: The Dynamics of Participation

Author:
Marina Ottaway and Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Islamist parties and movements in Arab countries that have strategically chosen to participate in the legal political process, acknowledging the legitimacy of the existing constitutional framework, have gained great political importance. Their participation raises two major questions: are they truly committed to democracy? And will participation have a positive, moderating influence on their positions, pushing them to focus on public policy platforms rather than ideological debates?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

183. Autumn 2008 Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 38, no. 1, p. 211

Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Palestine Studies
Institution:
Institute for Palestine Studies
Abstract:
This section lists articles and reviews of books relevant to Palestine and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Entries are classified under the following headings: Reference and General; History (to 1948) and Geography; Palestinian Politics and Society; Jerusalem; Israeli Politics, Society, and Zionism; Arab and Middle Eastern Politics; International Relations; Law; Military; Economy, Society, and Education; Literature and Art; Book Reviews; and Reports Received.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and Jerusalem

184. PolicyWatch #1403: Livni's Outlook: Political and Policy Options in Israel

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the wake of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's narrow Kadima party victory over Shaul Mofaz last week, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert resigned on Sunday night. The following day, Israeli president Shimon Peres asked Livni to form a new governing coalition, but if she is unable to do so in the next six weeks, Israel will head for new elections. Regardless of the coalition's makeup, prospects remain bleak in the short term for a breakthrough on either the Palestinian or Syrian track.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Syria

185. PolicyWatch #1405: The Importance of Iraq's Provincial Elections

Author:
Nazar Janabi
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 22, the Iraqi parliament belatedly passed a provincial elections law, ending a long and costly deadlock. Parliament ratified the initial version of the law on July 22, but it was later vetoed by two members of Iraq's presidency council. This time it is likely that the bill will survive council scrutiny because of the compromises and concessions made in the long negotiation process. Nevertheless, passing the law marks only the beginning of a vital political transition that could lead to either a unified democratic state or a fractured sectarian country prone to foreign influence.
Topic:
Government and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

186. PolicyWatch #1429: Livni vs. Netanyahu: From One Election to the Next

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On February 10, Israelis head to their first national election in nearly three years. With the exception of the 1977 election, this will be the only Israeli campaign in which no incumbent has run for the office of prime minister. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni leads the Kadima party, which is neck and neck with Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party; each is expected to garner approximately 30 seats in the 120-member Israeli parliament. Since their views on the peace process differ, the election's outcome will directly affect U.S. regional policy and the future of the Annapolis process.
Topic:
Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Israel

187. Islamic Activism in Jordan

Author:
Juan Jose Escobar Stemmann
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Athena Intelligence Journal
Institution:
Athena Intelligence
Abstract:
Manifestations of Islamic activism are abundant in Jordan. Traditional allies of the monarchy, the Muslim Brotherhood has participated in politics when the regime has opted for political openness. However, their moderation in domestic politics has been accompanied by a growing radicalisation with respect to foreign policy issues. In addition, Jordan has been a leading centre for Salafi intellectual output for decades. The emergence of a Jihadi current in the 1990s led to the creation of the first armed groups and Jihadi ideas have found favour with certain sectors of society in the country. Military intervention in Iraq and, in particular, the figure of Abu Musaf Al Zarqawi have resulted in Jordan becoming a favourite Al Qaeda target.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

188. Reading Khamenei: The World View of Iran's Most Powerful Leader

Author:
Karim Sadjadpour
Publication Date:
03-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
There is perhaps no leader in the world more important to current world affairs but less known and understood than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran. Neither a dictator nor a democrat—but with traits of both—Khamenei is the single most powerful individual in a highly factionalized, autocratic regime. Though he does not make national decisions on his own, neither can any major decisions be taken without his consent. He has ruled the country by consensus rather than decree, with his own survival and that of the theocratic system as his top priorities.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East

189. Evaluating Political Reform in Yemen

Author:
Sarah Phillips
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the Republic of Yemen was created in 1990 through the unification of the northern and southern states, the Yemeni regime has very consciously framed its policies in the language of democracy, while simultaneously muzzling initiatives that might help facilitate democratic consolidation. There has been a marked increase in the level of popular political activity, but the country's power structures have proven resilient to political reform.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

190. Pushing Toward Party Politics: Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement

Author:
Nathan J. Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Kuwait's Islamic Constitutional Movement (ICM), founded in 1991, is a relatively new political actor in Kuwait. Yet by the standards of regional Islamist movements, it is one of the most experienced in parliamentary and electoral politics. The ICM can claim some real electoral and programmatic successes, but any move beyond marginal or incremental achievements rests largely on its ability to build on the success of an ad hoc and diverse coalition of Islamist, liberal, and populist political forces. In short, if the ICM navigates difficult waters, it may be able to achieve many of its goals while demonstrating the broader potential of an Islamist electoral movement as part of a coalition pressing for liberalizing political reform. Kuwaiti political history suggests strong reasons for skepticism-the opposition has never been able to maintain a united front for long, and the Kuwaiti government has tools at its disposal to disperse, placate, and even exclude dissenters. But the opportunities beckoning the movement and other opposition political forces are stronger than they have ever been.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Kuwait