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42. After Ukraine – NATO should stay vigilant on the Middle East
- Author:
- Jakob Aarøe Jørgensen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Danish Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Leading up to the NATO Summit in September, the crisis in Ukraine has vindicated some NATO members' fears of Russia. This could cause NATO to revert to a narrow focus on Article 5 defense. Yet, other issues still pose threats and NATO should remain vigilant towards security challenges from the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Middle East
43. Background on the 'Possible Military Dimensions' of Iran's Nuclear Program
- Author:
- Nima Gerami
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Iran's compartmented nuclear program and fears of sabotage have complicated efforts to address IAEA concerns about the program's suspected military side.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
44. Easing US and EU Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Kenneth Katzman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Since the seizure of US hostages in Iran following the 1979 revolution, the US government has imposed a succession of economic penalties against the Islamic Republic. The complexity and severity of these sanctions intensified following Iran's resumption of a uranium enrichment program in 2006. However, there are a variety of ways to provide extensive sanctions relief should there be a deal placing long-term restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Middle East, and North America
45. Possible Frameworks for Verification of a WMD/DVs Free Zone in the Middle East - The Nuclear Dimension
- Author:
- Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The Resolution on the Middle East adopted without vote at the 1995 Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference calling for the establishment of a zone in the Middle East free of nuclear weapons, and all other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs), was reaffirmed by the 2000 and 2010 NPT Review Conferences. The 2010 Conference mandated the Secretary- General of the United Nations and the co-sponsors of the 1995 Resolution, in consultation with the states of the region, to convene a conference in 2012, to be attended by all states of the Middle East. The mandate was the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction, on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at by the states of the region, and with the full support and engagement of the nuclear-weapon states. The anticipated 2012 Conference was mandated to take the 1995 Resolution as its terms of reference.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
46. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
47. Iran and the P5+1: Getting to "Yes"
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- That nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the UK, U.S. and Germany) were extended beyond the 20 July 2014 deadline was neither unexpected nor unwelcome. The parties ha d made enough headway to justify the extension, which was envisioned in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) that was signed in November 2013 and came into force in January, but given the political and technical complexity, they remain far apart on fundamental issues. Unless they learn the lessons of the last six months and change their approach for the next four, they will lose the opportunity for a resolution not just by the new 24 November deadline but for the foreseeable future. Both sides need to retreat from maximalist positions, particularly on Iran's enrichment program. Tehran should postpone plans for industrial- scale enrichment and accept greater constraints on the number of its centrifuges in return for P5+1 flexibility on the qualitative growth of its enrichment capacity through research and development.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Economics, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Iran, Middle East, and France
48. TSG IntelBrief: Economic Drivers of an Iran Nuclear Deal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- There are clear and compelling economic imperatives for Iran to accept a nuclear agreement with the P5+1 (U.S., Britain, France, Russia, China, and Germany) by a November 24 deadline. The Iranian public has chafed under comprehensive sanctions since 2010 and expect President Hassan Rouhani to deliver a nuclear agreement that enables the economy to recover and grow. U.S. and other P5+1 officials stress the economic opportunities for Iran that will result, including the eventual re-opening of Iran's oil and gas sector to foreign investment. Major international firms are poised to re-enter the Iranian market in the event of a nuclear deal, although firms will initially be cautious due to lingering uncertainty.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Middle East
49. Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems
- Author:
- Leonard Spector
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- A comprehensive Center for Nonproliferation Studies report calls on the United States and other concerned countries to adopt tighter controls to stem the flow of nuclear-related goods to Iran, North Korea, and other states of proliferation concern. Even modest improvements across the spectrum of today’s nuclear technology controls could greatly strengthen overall international efforts to constrain illicit nuclear procurement networks, the study found. The now available report, Countering Nuclear Commodity Smuggling: A System of Systems, was prepared by Leonard S. Spector and Egle Murauskaite. The study was supported by the US Department of Defense.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Nonproliferation, and Illegal Trade
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea
50. THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The report shows that Iran's current missile and rocket forces help compensate for its lack of effective air power and allow it to pose a threat to its neighbors and US forces that could affect their willingness to strike on Iran if Iran uses its capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf or against any of its neighbors. At another level, Iran's steady increase in the number, range, and capability of its rocket and missile forces has increased the level of tension in the Gulf, and in other regional states like Turkey, Jordan, and Israel. Iran has also shown that it will transfer long-range rockets to “friendly” or “proxy” forces like the Hezbollah and Hamas. At a far more threatening level, Iran has acquired virtually every element of a nuclear breakout capability except the fissile material needed to make a weapon. This threat has already led to a growing “war of sanctions,” and Israeli and US threats of preventive strikes. At the same time, the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programs cannot be separated from the threat posed by Iran's growing capabilities for asymmetric warfare in the Gulf and along all of its borders. It is far from clear that negotiations and sanctions can succeed in limiting Iran's ability to acquire nuclear weapons and deploy nuclear-armed missiles. At the same time, the report shows that military options offer uncertain alternatives. Both Israel and the US have repeatedly stated that they are planning and ready for military options that could include preventive strikes on at least Iran's nuclear facilities and, and that US strikes might cover a much wider range of missile facilities and other targets. A preventive war might trigger a direct military confrontation or conflict in the Gulf with little warning. It might also lead to at least symbolic Iranian missile strikes on US basing facilities, GCC targets or Israel. At the same time, it could lead to much more serious covert and proxy operations in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, the rest of the Gulf, and other areas.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East