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2. Can Russia live with an ongoing conflict in Syria? Mapping out Trends Among Russian Foreign Policy Elites
- Author:
- Andrey Baklanov and Leonid Isaev
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- September 30, 2020 marked five years since the start of the Russian Aerospace Forces operation in Syria. This was the first military operation Moscow launched far from its own borders since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today Russia is not only militarily involved but is deeply invested in the conflict as it seeks to shape the course of the negotiation process and the post-conflict socio-political development of Syria. Russia’s grand strategy in Syria continues to evolve as it assesses its actions and goals in the light of current realities. In this paper we look at how the Russian academic community and diplomatic circles see the outlook of the Syrian negotiation process. We conducted in-depth interviews with representatives of these groups in order to understand their perspective on the Geneva process, the prospects of the Astana format, and the impacts on Russia of an ongoing conflict scenario in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
3. Understanding Russia’s Endgame in Syria: A View from the United States
- Author:
- Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Inherently unstable, Russia’s “spheres of influence” endgame strategy will result in a fractured and volatile Syria. Neither Russia nor Turkey appears likely to withdraw from Syria in the near term. Iran will remain an important player, albeit without holding a territorial sphere of influence. Balancing against Moscow, Tehran will exploit opportunities where possible, deepening its influence through informal and covert efforts. In this endgame, Russia’s prickly partnership with Turkey in Syria likely will endure. As a Russian analyst noted, “Turkey and Russia need each other strategically.” While Moscow may acknowledge that Turkey’s presence in Syria is a long-term problem, Russia’s “spheres of influence” endgame strategy nonetheless accommodates the reality of a lasting Turkish presence.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
4. The Importance of Middle East in Russian Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Sansz Rostamjabri, Seyed Javad EmamJomehzadeh, and Mahnaz Goodarzi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The Soviet Union emerged as a superpower in the Cold War, and after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, a new Russia was formed. To achieve the hegemony of power, Russia's security document was given priority. In the first term, Vladimir Putin focused on pragmatism and emphasized the power of domestic politics and the revival of the Russian economy. In his second term, Putin focused on the politics of realism to gain power on the international stage and return to what Moscow is interested in. In his second term, Putin pursued a political (power expansion), security (avoiding differences), and economic (strengthening Russia) view Middle East. Therefore, in this study, Russian foreign policy in the Middle East and its importance The question for this study is: what factors in Russian foreign policy made the Middle East region important for Russia? And the hypothesis for this question: Russia's concern about Islamic fundamentalism (security), economic and political reasons are among the most important factors in directing its foreign policy to the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Middle East
5. Failed Strategy? The Legacy of Barack Obama's Presidency in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Magdalena Lewicka and Michal Dahl
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
- Institution:
- Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
- Abstract:
- The purpose of this paper is to verify whether “a failed strategy”, a phrase commonly used in the literature, is an adequate description of Barack Obama’s legacy in the Middle East and North Africa. Based on the selected political manifestos and actions in the sphere of diplomacy, it has been proven that the Middle East and North Africa was not a priority to the decision-makers in Washington in the years 2009–2012, unlike in the years 2005–2008. However, although President Obama did not manage to implement most of his original plans, he achieved a few significant successes, the most notable of which is the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran. Authors seek to contextualize and explain Obama’s failures and successes, arguing that using the phrase “a failed strategy” does not reflect the complexity of the problems analyzed.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Hegemony, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, North Africa, North America, and United States of America
6. Starr Forum: US, Afghanistan, 9/11: Finished or Unfinished Business?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- MIT Center for International Studies
- Abstract:
- Chair: Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, MIT. He studies US grand strategy and national security policy. His most recent book is Restraint: A New Foundation for US Grand Strategy. Panelists: Juan Cole, Richard P Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History, University of Michigan. He is an expert on the modern Middle East, Muslim South Asia, and social and intellectual history. His most recent book is Muhammad: Prophet of Peace Amid the Clash of Empires. Carol Saivetz, Senior Advisor, MIT Security Studies Program. She is an expert on Soviet and now Russian foreign policy issues; and on topics ranging from energy politics in the Caspian and Black Sea regions, questions of stability in Central Asia, to Russian policy toward Iran. Vanda Felbab-Brown, Senior Fellow, Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology, Brookings. She is the director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors and the co-director of the Africa Security Initiative. She recently co-authored The fate of women’s rights in Afghanistan. She received her PhD from MIT.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, State Building, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
7. Is it time for Biden to demonstrate force with Iran?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
8. Strategic Incoherence Continued: US Policy Towards Syria Under Biden
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent the development of any coherent strategy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Leadership, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
9. The Significance of Events in Yemen for the Mideast Strategic Equation
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, Regionalism, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
10. Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
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