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101. The Middle East: Change and Upheaval 2013

Author:
Dr. Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Christian Koch, and Dr. Klejda Mulaj
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
As the Middle East continues to grapple with challenging questions of continuity and change, a group of distinguished thinkers on the region's politics and society met in Gstaad, Switzerland, to analyze current political dynamics and their implications for the region and beyond. This 11th Annual Conference organized jointly by the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), the Crown Centre for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University, and the Gulf Research Center (GRC) aimed to take stock of developments in the Middle East over the previous year and bring about a greater understanding of the complex problems faced by a perplexingly disordered region. Following on the 10th meeting in 2012, the primary focus of the discussion was on the Arab revolutions, their overall significance and outlook as well as their impact in the region with a specific emphasis on Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan. In addition, Iran's domestic politics and its international security implications; the GCC states and their place in the broader Middle East; as well as Israeli-Palestinian relations also featured prominently. The meeting opened by looking at the broader geopolitical and regional dynamics and concluded with a session considering policy implications in relation to present regional political dynamics. This report summarizes discussions held in the course of this meeting and in the tradition of previous reports on this Conference series, no direct, personal attributions are made herein. The Conference's program is attached.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Geneva, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, Syria, Switzerland, and Egypt

102. Hamas's leadership struggle and the prospects for Palestinian reconciliation

Author:
Nicolas Pelham
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
When the West Bank and Gaza first split between two rival Palestinian governments in 2007, Western governments promised to turn the West Bank under President Mahmoud Abbas, their Fatah protégé, into a model state and reduce Gaza under its Islamist rulers, Hamas, to a pariah. Almost five years on, the tables have turned. While the West Bank slips into economic and political crisis, Gaza is fast reviving. Abbas finds himself bereft of a political horizon for achieving a two-state settlement and the state-building experiment of his prime minister, Salam Fayyad, has reached an impasse. Gaza's economy, by contrast, has grown strongly under Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, who is experiencing a wave of increasing popularity, as Hamas looks to tie the enclave ever more closely to the political economies of North Africa, where the Arab awakening is bringing affiliated Islamist movements to power. A recent agreement signed in the Qatari capital, Doha, between Abbas and Hamas's exiled leader, Khalid Meshal, is intended to heal the split between Palestine's two halves. Under the agreement, the separate governments governing Gaza and the West Bank would be replaced by a single technocratic government under Abbas, which is a radical about-turn on the part of the exiled Hamas leadership that Hamas politicians in Gaza find difficult to swallow. For its own reasons, Israel too rejects the agreement. With so many previous attempts at intra-Palestinian reconciliation ending in failure and so many obstacles dogging this latest round, the prospects for the Doha agreement remain bleak, but not beyond the realm of the possible.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Treaties and Agreements, Territorial Disputes, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Arabia, and North Africa

103. The Political Economy of Regional Power: Turkey under the AKP

Author:
André Bank and Roy Karadag
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
In 2006/2007 Turkey became a regional power in the Middle East, a status it has continued to maintain in the context of the Arab Spring. To understand why Turkey only became a regional power under the Muslim AKP government and why this happened at the specific point in time that it did, the paper highlights the self-reinforcing dynamics between Turkey's domestic political-economic transformation in the first decade of this century and the advantageous regional developments in the Middle East at the same time. It concludes that this specific linkage – the “Ankara Moment” – and its regional resonance in the neighboring Middle East carries more transformative potential than the “Washington Consensus” or the “Beijing Consensus” so prominently discussed in current Global South politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, and Arabia

104. Political Change in the Middle East: An Attempt to Analyze the "Arab Spring"

Author:
Martin Beck and Simone Hüser
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This article deals with the Arab Spring as a process of deep political change in the Arab world, previously the only major world area where authoritarianism persisted unchallenged for decades. While in various countries of the Arab world mass protests in 2011 forced rulers to resign, other authoritarian regimes have – despite political and economic pressure – so far been able to remain in power, or have even been only insignificantly affected. This paper applies central social science approaches in order to analyze recent developments in the region – a major task of theoretically oriented social sciences in the coming years. In addition to providing an overview of the existing literature on the Arab Spring, the article examines the empirical results of political diversification in the Arab world. A two ‐ by ‐ two matrix of political rule that differentiates according to the type of rule and the degree of stability is presented and discussed. Although the analysis draws heavily on rent theory, it also applies findings from transition theory and revolution theory to illuminate the current political dynamics in the Middle East.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

105. Iran: a revolutionary republic in transition

Author:
Rouzbeh Parsi (ed)
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
This Chaillot Paper examines recent domestic developments in the Islamic Republic of Iran. It presents an in-depth assessment of the profound changes that the Iranian state and Iranian society have undergone in the past three decades, with a particular focus on the last tumultuous five years. In its exploration of this theme it not only shows the growing rift between the official discourse and self-image of the ruling elite and the society they govern, but also highlights the fact that external observers have many misperceptions about Iran.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, Nuclear Weapons, Political Economy, Governance, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

106. The Islamic World in the New Century

Author:
Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
Presented by His Excellency Professor Ekmeleddin IhsanogluSecretary General of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation Co-sponsored by Columbia Global Centers.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

107. Lebanon's Palestinian Dilemma: The Struggle over Nahr al-Bared

Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
2012 marks the fifth anniversary of one of Lebanon' s bloodiest battles since the end of the civil war: the deadly, three - month war pitting a jihadi group against the army in the Nahr al - Bared Palestinian refugee camp. Since then, the camp ' s displaced and resident population has suffered from slow reconstruct ion of their residences, a heavy security presence that restricts their movement and livelihood as well as the absence of a legitimate Palestinian body to represent their interests. Today, there are bigger and more urgent fish to fry, none more so than dealing with the ripple effects of Syria ' s raging internal conflict on inter - sectarian relations in Lebanon and the risk that the country once again could plunge into civil war. But it would be wrong to toss the refugee camp question aside, for here too resides a potential future flare - up.
Topic:
Security, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

108. The Emerging Order in the Middle East

Author:
Marina Ottaway, Paul Salem, Nathan J. Brown, and Sinan Ülgen
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
After more than a year of Arab uprisings, the emerging political order in the Middle East is marked by considerable shifts within individual countries as well as at the regional level. Domestically and internationally, new actors are emerging in strong positions and others are fading in importance. Islamist parties are on the rise with many secular forces losing power. And across the region, economic concerns have risen to the fore. These domestic changes have implications for both regional and international actors. There are a number of more ambitious economic and political steps the West should take to respond to these power shifts and engage with these new players.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

109. Sadr's Balancing Act on Maliki

Author:
Stephen Wicken
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Opponents of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have been pushing for his removal from power for much of his second term in office. In recent months, Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani and leaders from the Iraqiyya list have turned to an effort to withdraw confidence in Maliki as prime minister. Iraq's Shi'ite parties, though concerned about Maliki's accumulation of power, have largely abstained from the no-confidence push. Yet the anti-Maliki effort gained new life in mid-April when the powerful Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr intensified his opposition to Maliki and voiced his intention to remove the premier. Sadr's push for a no-confidence vote is an important inflection not only in his own posture towards Maliki, but also in the ongoing political crisis in Iraq. It has prompted a backlash from Iran, which has supported Maliki by seeking to restrain Sadr and to prevent a vote of no confidence. This backgrounder explores the possible calculus and responses of Sadr, Iran, and Maliki as Iraq's governmental stalemate continues to drag on.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, Regional Cooperation, Governance, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

110. State-building and political change: Options for Palestine 2011

Author:
Elizabeth Sellwood
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Across the Middle East, the year 2011 already appears destined to be a period of upheaval. It is not yet clear how the dramatic events of January and February will influence the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but three factors suggest that this year will also be one of change for Palestinians and Israelis.
Topic:
Regime Change, Territorial Disputes, Governance, and Prisons/Penal Systems
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia