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311. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy

Author:
Ebru Oğurlu
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus

312. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict

Author:
John Bowlus
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia

313. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran

Author:
Philip K. Verleger
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East

314. Middle East Security Report : Syria's Armed Opposition

Author:
Joseph Holliday
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The rebels will have to rely on external lines of supply to replenish their arms and ammunition if they are to continue eroding the regime's control. The emergence of al-Qaeda-linked terrorist cells working against the regime poses risks to the United States and a challenge to those calling for material support of the armed opposition. As the militias continue to face overwhelming regime firepower the likelihood of their radicalization may increase. Moreover, the indigenous rebels may turn to al-Qaeda for high-end weaponry and spectacular tactics as the regime's escalation leaves the rebels with no proportionate response, as occurred in Iraq in 2005-2006. Developing relations with armed opposition leaders and recognizing specific rebel organizations may help to deter this dangerous trend. It is imperative that the United States distinguish between the expatriate political opposition and the armed opposition against the Assad regime on the ground in Syria. American objectives in Syria are to hasten the fall of the Assad regime; to contain the regional spillover generated by the ongoing conflict; and to gain influence over the state and armed forces that emerge in Assad's wake. Therefore, the United States must consider developing relations with critical elements of Syria's armed opposition movement in order to achieve shared objectives, and to manage the consequences should the Assad regime fall or the conflict protract.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Germany, and Syria

315. Syria's Political Opposition

Author:
Elizabeth O'Bagy
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Policymakers must identify and understand Syria's political opposition, both in exile and on the ground, in order to develop a clear vision of their aims and a better strategy for support. Any successful U.S. policy in Syria should focus on constructing a viable alternative to Assad's government. This report provides detailed information on the diverse groupings of the Syrian political opposition in order to inform the international community's response to the conflict. It distinguishes between the expatriate political opposition and the grassroots protest movement operating on the ground in Syria. Policymakers must come to the understanding that they may not get the chance to sit across the table from a single opposition party, but rather will have to work directly with the nascent political-military structures that have formed at a local level. The key to creating an effective national opposition lies in connecting the established national coalitions with the grassroots political movement. The most well-known and widely recognized established political opposition coalition is the Syrian National Council (SNC ). The SNC is based in Istanbul and functions as a loosely-aligned umbrella organization comprised of seven different blocs: the Muslim Brotherhood, the Damascus Declaration, the National Bloc, the Local Coordination Committee (as representatives of the grassroots movement), the Kurdish Bloc, the Assyrian Bloc, and Independents. The SNC has not meaningfully engaged with local opposition forces, and is losing credibility and influence within Syria as the conflict grows more militarized. The other significant established political opposition coalition is the National Coordination Committee (NCC ). The NCC is based in Damascus and favors a negotiated political settlement and dialogue with the regime. This stance has made the NCC less popular amongst the grassroots opposition movement. The grassroots movement functions at a local and regional level through coordination between the local coordinating committees and revolutionary councils. This movement has become tactically adept, better organized, and more cohesive, developing nascent political structures. The local coordinating committees, called the tansiqiyyat, form the base unit of organization. As the movement has grown, urban centers have developed oversight councils called the revolutionary councils to manage the committees within specific districts. The revolutionary councils are the main organizational structure for the grassroots political opposition. They manage the activities of the tansiqiyyat, organize protests, and coordinate with the armed opposition. The Syrian Revolution General Commission (SRGC) is the largest grassroots coalition. It represents roughly seventy percent of the revolutionary councils and the majority of the local coordinating committees. armed opposition cooperates with the grassroots political opposition and a number of insurgent groups have shown a willingness to work under the guidance of the revolutionary councils. The lack of secure communications equipment has hindered the grassroots opposition's ability to coordinate above the local level because the government retains the overwhelming capacity to monitor, track and suppress greater organization at a national level. The established political coalitions such as the SNC have articulated a national vision for a post-Assad future and have received nominal support from the international community, yet they lack strong networks and popular legitimacy inside Syria. On the other hand, the grassroots political opposition has gained the support of the people, but it lacks a national vision and united front as the basis for international support. The United States must consider adopting a bottom-up strategy that provides better support to the grassroots movement operating within Syria. This entails developing better relations with critical elements of the grassroots movement and working with key individuals who have deep networks of supporters within Syria but also maintain ties to the SNC or the NCC . A bottom-up strategy would provide an avenue for U.S. support that incorporates both national and local opposition groups and encourages the emergence of a legitimate national political leadership.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Armed Struggle, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Syria

316. Cypriot Perceptions of Turkey

Author:
Christalla Yakinthou and Rebecca Bryant
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report contains the findings of TESEV Foreign Policy Program’s survey of the perception of Turkey in Cyprus. Conducted by Rebecca Bryant and Christalla Yakinthou, the survey aims to understand and represent Turkish and Greek Cypriot assessments of their respective relationships with Turkey today. The report uses a set of fifty extended interviews to present Cypriots’ anxieties, hopes, and fears regarding their relationships with Turkey and possibilities for the future. The report reveals some striking findings. While Turkish Cypriots demand sovereign equality from Turkey; Greek Cypriots are more concerned with the economic performance of Turkey and Greece, rather than the role of Turkey on the future of the island. Both sides think of Turkey’s military presence on the island as an issue and it is also widely believed that Turkey should adopt a more constructive attitude and take concrete steps towards a long-term solution. u rapor TESEV Dış Politika Programı’nın Kıbrıs’ta Türkiye algısını anlamaya yönelik çalışmasının detaylı sonuçlarını içermektedir. Rebecca Bryant ve Christalla Yakinthou tarafından yürütülen bu çalışma, Kıbrıslı Türk ve Rumların Türkiye ile olan ilişkilerini nasıl değerlendirdikleri üzerinde durmaktadır. Araştırma ada genelinde çeşitli kanaat önderleriyle yapılan elli derinlemesine mülakat aracılığıyla Kıbrıslıların Türkiye ile ilgili görüş ve beklentilerini ortaya koymaktadır.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Sovereignty, Territorial Disputes, and Economy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean

317. Turkey’s South Caucasus Agenda: The Role of State and Non-State Actors

Author:
Aybars Görgülü and Onnik Krikorian
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
On March 2, 2012, Eurasia Partnership Foundation (EPF) and Turkish Economic Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) organized an international conference titled “Turkey’s South Caucasus Agenda: Roles of State and Non-State Actors” in Tbilisi, Georgia. The event brought together analysts, diplomats and decision makers from Turkey, Europe and the South Caucasus to discuss Turkey’s role in stabilizing the region both on the level of government engagement and civil society. This publication is the reflection of the commentary that was made by participants during the conference.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Civil Society, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Georgia, and South Caucasus

318. The Evolution of Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East

Author:
Henri J. Barkey
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
The Evolution of Turkish Foreing Policy in the Middle East is written by Henri J. barkey from Lehigh University. The article analysis Turkish foreign policy since the AK Party assumed power and reveals three distinct phases, especially in regard to the Middle East. Lehigh Üniversitesi’nden Henri J. Barkey’nin kaleme aldığı The Evolution of Turkish Foreing Policy in the Middle East Türkiye’nin AK Parti hükümeti dönemindeki dış politikasını üç ayrı evreye ayırarak analiz etmekte ve özellikle Ortadoğu’da izlediği siyasetin gelişimini değerlendirmektedir.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Iran, Malaysia, Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Tunisia

319. A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis

Author:
Doğan Ertuğrul
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
“A Test for Turkey’s Foreign Policy: The Syria Crisis “is written by the Star Newspaper columnist Doğan Ertuğrul. Ertuğrul, who has been working on Iran, northern Iraq and the Kurdish issue for over 10 years, has produced numerous research papers and articles concerning the political system in Iran, Iranian Kurds and other minorities as well as political groups in northern Iraq. The article provides an in-depth analysis of the situation in Syria since March 2011 and elaborates on Turkish and Iranian policies towards Syria. It further examines the competition between Tehran and Ankara along with the perception of Turkey in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arab Spring, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

320. The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East 2011

Author:
Mensur Akgün and Sabiha Senyücel Gündoğar
Publication Date:
02-2012
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
This report contains the findings of TESEV Foreign Policy Programme’s third survey of the perception of Turkey in the Middle East. Conducted by KA Research in 16 countries between October 19th and December 15th, the survey questioned 2323 people by telephone or face to face. As in previous years, the survey contains striking results. Despite falls in some countries, Syria and Iran being the most significant, the general perception of Turkey in the region has not changed fundamentally. In fact of the countries that regional opinion was sought, Turkey has surpassed even Saudi Arabia into first place with 78% of the region having a favourable opinion of it. The conclusions are similar to those in previous years. However, there are some results relating to the ‘Arab Spring’ that should be noted here.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, Libya, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations