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231. The U.S. Role in Iraq's Postelection Politics

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington has rightfully avoided backing a candidate in next week's elections, but it should still use counterterrorism assistance and other levers to push Baghdad on pluralism and KRG oil revenue sharing during the presumably lengthy transition period. On April 30, the Iraqi public will vote in national parliamentary elections, establishing the next four-year term of the 328-seat Council of Representatives. Thereafter, an equally consequential bargaining process will commence, taking the formation of the next government out of the public's hands and cloistering it behind closed doors. The United States has repeatedly prodded Baghdad to ensure that the vote is held on time, in all districts, and in a free and fair manner. Washington's role in the government formation process could be equally constructive, but it presents a far trickier challenge. Indeed, how the U.S. government acts during the postelection process could set the tone for bilateral relations throughout the next government's term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Washington and Middle East

232. The Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation Agreement: Too Early to Judge

Author:
Ehud Yaari and Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Even as the deal offers short-term political benefits for both sides, it fails to resolve key issues separating them. The April 23 Fatah-Hamas reconciliation agreement announced in the Gaza Strip is the latest in a long line of attempts to bridge the intra-Palestinian divide. The timing of the agreement amid U.S.-brokered peace talks, as well as both parties' internal weaknesses, points to more serious intent than past efforts. However, the deal fails to address the most sensitive issues separating the two sides and likely can be explained by the political boost it offers to both leaderships. The only certainty is that the reconciliation deal severely complicates efforts to extend Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations past their April 29 deadline.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

233. The Terrorist Funding Disconnect with Qatar and Kuwait

Author:
Lori Plotkin Boghardt
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Washington should look for small changes in Kuwait and Qatar's political and security calculus that could provide opportunities to support counter-terrorist financing measures there. On April 30, the U.S. State Department noted that private donations from Persian Gulf countries were "a major source of funding for Sunni terrorist groups, particularly...in Syria," calling the problem one of the most important counterterrorism issues during the previous calendar year. Groups such as al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, Jabhat al-Nusra, and the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), previously known as al-Qaeda in Iraq, are believed to be frequent recipients of some of the hundreds of millions of dollars that wealthy citizens and others in the Gulf peninsula have been donating during the Syrian conflict.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Border Control
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Kuwait, Arabia, Syria, and Qatar

234. Decision Time on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: U.S. Strategy Hits a Critical Juncture

Author:
Robert Satloff
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
As narratives about the root causes of the impasse in Israeli-Palestinian negotiations take shape, U.S. leaders have a major decision to make about whether to disengage from diplomacy or deepen involvement in less high-profile ways.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

235. Israelis Kidnapped in the West Bank: Implications

Author:
Neri Zilber
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
If U.S. policy was to "wait and see" how the Hamas-approved Palestinian reconciliation process would unfold in practice, the test is now.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Treaties and Agreements, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and North America

236. Building a Base for Iraq's Counteroffensive: The Role of U.S. Security Cooperation

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Encouraging signs have emerged that the collapse of federal government control in Iraq may have slowed and that Baghdad is beginning the transition to counteroffensive operations to regain ground. Massive mobilization of largely Shiite volunteers has given Baghdad an untrained but motivated "reserve army" that can be used to swamp cross-sectarian areas around the Iraqi capital. All available formed military units have been pulled out of reserve and brought toward Baghdad to defend the capital. In this effort, all Department of Border Enforcement units have been relocated from the country's borders, and Iraqi army and Federal Police units have been redeployed from southern Iraq. Isolated federal government units are scattered across northern Iraq, in some cases hanging on against Sunni militants with the support of adjacent Kurdish forces.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Terrorism, Armed Struggle, Sectarianism, Law Enforcement, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

237. After Ukraine – NATO should stay vigilant on the Middle East

Author:
Jakob Aroe Jorgensen and Adam Gardner
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Threats emanating from the Middle East still pose serious security challenges to NATO, though some see the crisis in Ukraine as the most serious security challenge yet to the alliance in the post-Cold War era. NATO must remain vigilant towards these threats, not allowing the crisis in Ukraine to eclipse all other contingencies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Arms Control and Proliferation, Sovereignty, and Territorial Disputes
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Middle East

238. Zooming in on Syria: Adapting US Policy to Local Realities

Author:
Faysal Itani and Nathaniel Rosenblatt
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
As the conflict in Syria enters its fourth year, US policy has consistently failed to achieve its stated object: a negotiated political transition based on the mutual consent of the regime and opposition. The United States and its Western allies have focused on summits and high-level diplomacy as the most effective means to that laudable end. This approach ignores an essential missing ingredient: an opposition able to coordinate different anti-regime forces, exercise agency on their behalf, and provide decent local governance, without which Syrians will continue to suffer and fight irrespective of whether the regime is overthrown.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Syria, and North America

239. Ten Ideas for Smarter NATO Missile Defense

Author:
Patrick O'Reilly
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
NATO leaders have cited missile defense as an example of applying the principles of the Smart Defense initiative endorsed at the 2012 NATO Summit to enhance collective defense at minimum cost. As ballistic missiles continue to proliferate and become more accessible to both state and nonstate actors, it is important to foster global partnerships to pursue NATO's missile defense mission and protect North American and European interests. NATO should consider opportunities to further apply the principles of Smart Defense now to reduce future costs of deterring and countering missile proliferation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Asia, and North America

240. Getting Democracy Promotion Right in Egypt

Author:
Amy Hawthorne
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Three years into Egypt's post-Mubarak transition, the near-term prospects for democratization are bleak. The military-security alliance that ousted the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, in July 2013 is consolidating power. Government repression against the Islamist opposition, and more recently against secular dissenters, is harsher and society is more polarized than in any point in recent memory.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, and Egypt