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31. Energy Risks in North Africa and the Middle East

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Any estimate of energy risk is highly uncertain. The reality can vary sharply according to national and global economic conditions, politics, war, natural disasters, discoveries of new reserves, advances in technology, unanticipated new regulations and environmental issues, and a host of other factors.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

32. Country Forecast: Global outlook

Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Three years after the global economy reached its lowest point in three-quarters of a century, the recovery remains incomplete and the outlook uncertain. On March 9th 2009, the capitalisation of Morgan Stanley\'s global stockmarket index fell to US$26trn, nearly 60% below its 2007 peak. Today, the value of the world\'s stockmarkets has yet to return to the pre-crisis level—nor has the confidence of most consumers and businesses. The excesses of the last ten years—the personal debt accumulated early in the last decade and the public debt added during the recession—have saddled many countries with weak economic foundations and little or no resilience to shocks. This has left the US economy, in particular, struggling for a third straight year to lock in faster growth. It has left debt-ravaged Europe in recession and China manoeuvring unsteadily to deflate a bubble. On the brighter side, the global economy will grow again this year and the imbalances that built up over the past decade will continue to unwind. But global growth will be slower this year than last, and a host of risks—from elevated oil prices to war in the Middle East, to the collapse of Europe\'s single currency—will weigh on confidence and reduce spending and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Middle East

33. Inward FDI in Israel and its policy context

Author:
Yair Aharoni
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
In the first four decades of its existence, Israel was not successful in attracting inward foreign direct investment (IFDI) despite attempts to do so. In the past two decades, Israel have become a haven for multinational enterprises (MNEs) that have taken advantage of its unique assets – among them a skilled, educated workforce and cutting-edge research-and-development (R) capabilities – by establishing production lines or R centers and acquiring dozens of successful start ups. Israel's IFDI stock sharply increased from US$ 4.5 billion in 1990 to US$ 71.3 billion in 2009. It is expected that IFDI will further accelerate following Israel's accession to the OECD in May 2010 and as more firms from emerging market economies, including China and India, will come to appreciate its characteristics as an ideal locational choice. Israel also weathered the global economic crisis well, even though IFDI declined sharply. Israel actively encourages IFDI, mainly in high technology areas. In 2010, the Government also created special incentives to attract research centers of financial institutions.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, India, and Israel

34. Iran in the shadow of the 2009 presidential elections

Author:
Rouzbeh Parsi
Publication Date:
04-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
In the past two years the Iranian domestic political scene has undergone a major upheaval where many established norms and institutional frame-works have been abandoned or seriously weakened. A new baseline and sense of normalcy has yet to be established.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, Politics, Insurgency, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

35. Israel's leading multinationals continue to expand domestically and abroad despite the crisis

Publication Date:
03-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
The third annual survey of Israeli multinational enterprises (MNEs) is being released today. It was conducted by a joint team composed of the Manufacturers Association of Israel, Tel Aviv University, Hebrew University, and the Vale-Columbia Center on Sustainable International Investment (VCC), a joint undertaking of the Columbia Law School and The Earth Institute at Columbia University in New York. The survey is part of a long-term, multi-country study of the rapid global expansion of multinational enterprises (MNEs) from emerging markets. The results released today cover the year 2008.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Colombia

36. Role of the IMF in the Global Financial Crisis

Author:
Miranda Xafa
Publication Date:
09-2010
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
More than two years on, the impact of the financial crisis that erupted in August 2007 is still being felt as the global economy emerges from the Great Recession. The crisis intensified dramatically after the bankruptcy of Lehman and the rescue of insurance giant AIG in September 2008, which narrowly avoided a near-simultaneous failure of multiple counterparties. The International Monetary Fund's early forecast of the severity of the resulting economic downturn (IMF 2008a) helped mobilize concerted official action to address quickly and forcefully these extraordinary economic and financial events by providing fiscal stimulus to sustain growth, as well as capital injections and guarantees to ease the credit crunch. Following the emergency summit of G20 leaders in Washington in November 2008, support packages for banks were put together in a hurry in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere to prevent the dis- orderly failure of systemically important institutions and to restore confidence in the financial system.
Topic:
Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

37. Getting Off Lightly? The Impact of the International Financial Crisis on the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Juliane Brach and Markus Loewe
Publication Date:
08-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The international financial crisis has hit the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), like other developing regions, unexpectedly, during a long phase of above-average growth. In contrast to other parts of the world, however, most MENA developing countries will able to get off lightly if the crisis does not last for too long. In Turkey and Israel, the region's more industrialized countries, different initial conditions apply and the situation is not comparable to the Arab MENA countries.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

38. Oil-rent Boom in Iran?

Author:
Martin Beck
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The present article aims to analyze the effects of high oil prices since 2003 on Iran. The theoretical basis of the analysis is the rentier state approach, the basic element of which is that rents are at the free disposal of the rentier. Empirically, the paper examines the issue areas of foreign policy, domestic policy and economic policy. After proving that the oil price—despite fluctuations—has constantly been at a high level in the first decade of the twenty‐first century, the discussion demonstrates that Iran has used the increased rent in‐come to support a populist policy. In terms of economic policy, the regime has pursued a redistributive strategy. The country's foreign policy, particularly the ostentatiously pursued atomic program, has been very expensive since it provoked sanctions whose costs were initially balanced only by high rent income. Yet, in his first term, Ahmadinejad failed to prepare Iran for the situation that has occurred as a result of the global financial crisis: the redistributive policy of the regime has meant that an oil price below US$70 or US$75 now constitutes a severe challenge for the Iranian state budget.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Markets, Oil, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

39. Sharing the Pain: The Global Struggle Over Savings

Author:
Michael Pettis
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In September, the Obama administration imposed tariffs on Chinese tires. In October, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced it would launch an investigation into imports of seamless steel pipes from China. That same month, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the U.S.–China Business Council, two groups that in the past have defended Chinese policies, testified to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative that Chinese contracting rules, technical standards, and licensing requirements were protectionist.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, and Asia

40. Icon or Omen? Dubai's Debt Problem and the Gulf

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Late on November 25, just before the start of the Islamic Eid festival and, coincidentally, Thanksgiving in the United States, Dubai's flagship investment company Dubai World announced that it would be requesting a six-month delay on paying its debts. Within hours, Dubai's reputation was being rewritten, and its ambition to be a financial center, building on its historic reputation as a focal point for regional trade, was being recast. Uncertainty continued on November 30, when the Dubai government said that it would not guarantee Dubai World's debt. In any event, the larger story has been the nervousness of world financial markets, which are now also evincing worry about the debt of countries like Greece or Ireland. Within the Middle East, the focus is on the extent of support that Dubai will receive from Abu Dhabi, the neighboring -- and richer -- member sheikhdom of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), whether other city-states like Bahrain and Qatar are also at risk, and whether Dubai's links with Iran will change as a result of its financial situation.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Arabia, Bahrain, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi