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22. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis
- Author:
- Adnan Mazarei
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
- Abstract:
- Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
- Topic:
- Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
23. Hezbollah Prioritizes Its Own Interests, Putting Lebanon at Risk
- Author:
- Matthew Levitt
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As demonstrators rail against economic problems, corruption, and sectarianism, the group’s role in undermining the public’s financial and physical security is coming under greater scrutiny. Lebanese citizens took to the streets this weekend to protest the country’s acute financial crisis, which has been marked by one of the highest debt ratios in the world, a new currency crisis, and fears that a strike will close gas stations indefinitely. Many believe that deep-rooted corruption and sectarianism got them into this mess, and may now complicate efforts to get them out. Against this backdrop, more criticism is being directed at Hezbollah, the widely designated terrorist organization that is simultaneously the most powerful party in Lebanon’s government and an aggressively sectarian movement that keeps its activities and weapons outside the government’s control. As the Treasury Department recently noted, developments over the past few weeks have underscored the extent to which the group’s actions “prioritize its interests, and those of its chief sponsor, Iran, over the welfare of Lebanese citizens and Lebanon’s economy.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, Financial Crisis, Protests, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
24. Refugees in Lebanon: Perspectives from on the Ground
- Author:
- Dima Zayat, Serene Dardari, and Mona Yacoubian
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- In recent months, refugees in Lebanon are facing a dismal climate of social polarization, opportunistic political rhetoric, and increasing hostility, with the demolition of some informal camp settlements, enhanced labor law restrictions, and widespread protests. Humanitarian programs must navigate tensions between host, Palestinian and Syrian refugee communities against the backdrop of Lebanon’s serious economic and environmental difficulties. The Middle East Institute (MEI) and Anera held a panel discussion of the many challenges facing Syrian and Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Dima Zayat and Serene Dardari, two experts with years of experience in the humanitarian sector in Lebanon, were joined by discussant Mona Yacoubian to assess these challenges and explore potential avenues to address them. Randa Slim (MEI) moderated the discussion.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Labor Issues, Financial Crisis, Refugees, Economy, Protests, and Xenophobia
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
25. Kriz Dönemlerinde Reel Ekonomik Göstergelerin Sinyal Yaklaşımı ile Değerlendirilmesi: 1999-2017 Türkiye Örneği
- Author:
- Şükrü Cicioğlu and Atilla Yıldız
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Ülkelerin gelişmiş veya gelişmekte olmasına bakılmaksızın karşılaştığı sorunların başında ekonomik krizler gelir. Dünya ekonomisinin değişimi ile birlikte ekonomilerin kırılganlıklarının artması sonucu yaşanan krizlerin açıklanması daha da önem kazanmış ve krizlerin tahmin edilebilmesi, politikaların belirlenmesi açısından katkılar sağlar olmuştur. Dünya ekonomisi içinde yakalamış olduğu yüksek büyüme oranları ile önemli bir yeri olan Türkiye ekonomisinde iç ve dış kaynaklı birçok kriz yaşamıştır. Bunun yanında son dönemde faiz ve döviz kurundaki artışlar ekonomide kriz ortamının oluşmaya başladığı yönündeki düşünceleri artırmıştır. Kriz ortamının oluşup oluşmadığının değerlendirilebilmesi ve öngörüde bulunabilmek amacıyla reel göstergelerin değerlendirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Çalışmada ekonomi üzerinde artan baskının ölçülmesi ve politika uygulayıcılarına yön vermek amacıyla krizleri öngörmek için yapılan çalışmalarda başarılı tahmin gücüne sahip olan Kaminsky, Lizondo ve Reinhart tarafından geliştirilen KLR sinyal yaklaşımı ile reel göstergeler değerlendirilmeye alınmıştır. Türkiye ekonomisinin 1999:01- 2017:12 dönemine ait aylık ve üç aylık verilerden yararlanarak uygulanan analiz sonucunda; kriz dönemi için sinyal verme başarısı açısından cari denge / ulusal rezerv, ithalat ve kapasite kullanım oranı göstergeleri başarılı olmuş ve aynı zamanda kriz olduğunda sinyal verme olasılıkları oldukça iyi değerler almıştır. Sinyal yaklaşımı neticesinde anlamlı sinyal veren göstergeler kullanılarak 2016:01-2017:12 dönemi değerlendirilmesi sonucunda cari denge / ulusal rezerv ve ithalat göstergeleri birer sinyal vererek ekonominin kötüleşme eğilimi içinde olduğunu göstermiştir.
- Topic:
- Economics, History, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
26. 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi Sonrası Türkiye’de Uygulanan Kamu Geliri Politikalarının İstihdam Oranları Üzerine Etkisi
- Author:
- Ekrem Gül, Ahmet Gökçe Akpolat, and Recep Kaya
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- 2008 Küresel finans krizi, kriz literatüründe ölçeğinin büyüklüğü ve küresel boyutta yaptığı etkiden dolayı önemli bir yer arz etmektedir. ABD’de 2008 yılında konut piyasalarında geri dönmeyen kredilerden kaynaklı başlayan finansal kriz başta Avrupa ülkeleri olmak üzere küresel çapta büyük bir yayılım göstermiştir. Bu doğrultuda krizin etkilerini gidermek amacıyla para ve maliye politikaları ülkeler tarafından önemle uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada 2008 Küresel finans krizi sonrasında Türkiye’de hükümet tarafından uygulanan maliye politikalarının önemli bir aracı olan kamu gelirleri ile istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki öncelikle teorik olarak açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Teoriye ilaveten 2006Q1-2016Q4 dönemleri arasında kamu geliri politikalarıyla istihdam oranları arasındaki ilişki Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testine göre analiz edilmiş ve kriz sonrası uygulanan kamu geliri politikalarından istihdam oranlarına doğru tek yönlü Toda-Yamamoto (1995) Granger nedenselliği tespit edilmiştir.
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Employment, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
27. Türkiye Ekonomisi: Bardağın Dolu Tarafına Bakmak
- Author:
- M. Kemal Aydın
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Bilgi
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Tarihsel analizler, Türkiye Ekonomisinin en temel sorununun dış açık olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kalkınma girişimlerini kesintiye uğratan bu sorunu aşmak için 1980’li yılların başında ithal ikameci büyüme modeli terk edilerek ihracata dönük büyüme modeli benimsenmiştir. 1980’li yılların sonuna doğru bu modelin sürdürülebilir olmadığının görülmesi üzerine, 1990’lı yılların başından itibaren yüksek faiz ve düşük kur beklentisine odaklı kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerinin [portföy yatırımları] uyaracağı tüketim talebine dayandırılmış yeni bir büyüme modeli hayata geçirilmiştir. Ne var ki bu model, iktisadi yapının kırılganlığını artırarak 1994, 2000 ve 2001 yıllarında ağır finansal krizler yaşanmasına sebep olmuştur. 2001 Krizi’nin ardından mali disiplin, sıkı para politikası ve bankacılık reformu temelinde kurgulanmış bir program izlenerek yeni bir büyüme dalgası yakalanmıştır. Bu dönemde enflasyonun denetim altına alındığı, bütçeden yapılan faiz ödemelerin azaldığı, devletin borçlanma gereğinin ve toplam borç yükünün hafiflediği görülmektedir. Diğer taraftan 2005’den itibaren doğrudan yatırım girişlerinin keskin bir biçimde artmaya başlaması ile birlikte dış açık’ın finansmanında kısa vadeli sermaye girişlerine duyulan ihtiyaç azalmıştır. Bütün bu gelişmeler sayesinde Türkiye Ekonomisi, 2008’de vuku bulan Küresel Finans Krizi’ni minimum hasar ile atlatmayı başarmıştır. Bu krizin bir sonucu olarak 2008 ve 2009 yıllarında hafif bir sarsıntı geçiren Türkiye Ekonomisi [işsizlik ve dış açık sorunlarını henüz çözememiş olmakla birlikte] 2010’dan itibaren hızlı bir biçimde toparlanmıştır.
- Topic:
- Government, Financial Crisis, Budget, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
28. Sanctions, Economic Mismanagement, and the Iranian Currency Crisis, 2010 - 2012
- Author:
- Jessica Knight
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Fletcher Security Review
- Institution:
- The Fletcher School, Tufts University
- Abstract:
- In October 2012, the Iranian rial earned the unwelcome distinction of the world’s least valued currency. It had lost more than 80% of its open market value in the previous two years, crashing from 9,800 to 37,000 rials (IRR) per U.S. dollar (USD). As the rial lost value, demand for more reliable hard currencies surged until it far exceeded the Central Bank of Iran’s (CBI) official supply. Many western analysts, taking their cue from U.S. officials, claimed this devaluation proved the efficacy of international sanctions. Did it really?
- Topic:
- Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Economy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and United States of America
29. Examining China’s Assertiveness through the Eyes of Chinese IR Scholars
- Author:
- Huiyun Feng and Kai He
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China‟s diplomacy has moved towards a more confident or even assertive direction in international politics. Economically, the Chinese Premier refused to re-value the Chinese currency as the United States requested and instead started to lecture about U.S. economic mismanagement during the 2008 financial meltdown (Pomfret, 2010). Diplomatically, China responded furiously to Obama‟s decision of arms sales to Taiwan and meeting the Dalai Lama in early 2010, threatening to place sanctions on American companies. Politically, China reluctantly cooperated with Western countries, especially the United States, to punish either North Korean or Iranian provocations to the international order. Many other examples, from the Copenhagen Conference to the diplomatic standoffs between China and its neighbours, have also been listed as indications of China‟s assertive behaviour since 2008 (Swaine, 2010, 2011; Swaine and Fravel 2011; Perlez 2012; Ross 2012; He and Feng 2012). In particular, the 2012 Scarborough Shoal crisis with the Philippines, the still on-going flare-ups with Japan on the Senkaku/Diaoyu disputes, and the recently intensified tension with Vietnam in the South China Sea seemingly have further intensified regional concerns over China‟s rise. It is worth noting that some scholars have started to question the validity of the discourse regarding China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy. For example, through critically examining the “assertiveness” meme in the U.S. pundit and academic circles, Johnston questions: “How new and assertive is China‟s new assertiveness?” (Johnston, 2013). Although the extent and the nature of the assertiveness are still debatable, it is clear that China‟s foreign policy has shifted to a new direction, albeit temporarily. The goal of this paper is not to debate the temporal origins or intensity of China‟s assertiveness. Instead, it focuses on examining the perceptual roots of China‟s policy changes. As David Shambaugh (1991) points out, behaviour is principally a function of perception. In order to make sense of Chinese behaviour, we need to dig into the mindset of Chinese leaders. However, it is difficult to gauge what political leaders really perceive due to the political hierarchy and the complex nature of the decision-making process in any state system, especially China. In this research we examine Chinese leaders‟ perceptions and attitudes regarding Chinese foreign policy through the eyes of China‟s International Relations (IR) scholars. We use Chinese IR scholars as a “proxy measure” to make sense of Chinese leaders‟ perceptions because Chinese IR scholars serve as the mediator between the Chinese leadership and the general public (Shambaugh, 1991; Saunders, 2000). Based on an original opinion survey of Chinese IR scholars at the annual conference of the Chinese Community of Political Science and International Studies (CCPSIS) in Beijing in July 2013, we empirically test the perceptual roots of Chinese scholars‟ preference for an assertive diplomacy. In particular, we examine two competing arguments about China‟s assertiveness. Some scholars suggest a “power perception” argument in which China‟s assertiveness is rooted in Chinese leaders‟ changing perceptions regarding its power status versus the United States. In other words, as the 1 United States and other Western countries were troubled by their economic downturn, Chinese leaders became overly confident with China‟s rise and thereby started to say “no” to the United States as well as show its “teeth” to its neighbours (Nye, 2010; Green, 2010). Others advocate a “policy reaction” argument, which attributes China‟s assertiveness to a nationalist reaction to unfriendly international forces, especially from the West, which threatened to block China‟s rise. Continuous economic growth also instigated the rise of nationalism in Chinese society, which in turn pushed the Chinese government to react to Western criticisms and “plots” with more fury and toughness (Carr, 2010; Small, 2010; Swaine, 2011; Ross, 2012). In other words, China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy grew from an intentional reaction to the strategic pressure from the United States and the outside world. There are three parts in the paper. First, we briefly introduce our original survey conducted in the summer of 2013. Second, we develop two hypotheses based on the current debate about China‟s assertive diplomacy and test them by using the structural equation modeling (SEM) technique. We suggest that both the “power perception” and “policy reaction” arguments make sense in explaining China‟s assertiveness in diplomacy. However, our findings suggest that a more pessimistic perception regarding Chinese power is more likely to be associated with a preference for an assertive foreign policy. In other words, it is not a confident or an overly confident China but a lack of confidence instead, which is more likely to trigger an assertive foreign policy in China. In the conclusion section we discuss the implications of our findings for China‟s future international relations
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Imperialism, International Cooperation, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North Korea
30. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership
- Author:
- Tural Ahmadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia