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22. Examining Newly-Formed Mixed Arab-Jewish Municipal Coalitions
- Author:
- Alexander Jacob Shapiro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Alexander Jacob Shapiro analyzes the circumstances surrounding the establishment of a joint Arab-Jewish municipal coalition in Lod following the recent municipal elections.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
23. Arab Voting in the 21st Knesset Elections
- Author:
- Arik Rudnitzky
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Arik Rudnitzky summarizes the results of the 2019 Knesset elections and the voting patterns of the Arab public. This article reviews the results of the elections for the 21st Knesset in Arab and Druze communities. It also examines voting patterns in these localities by demographic characteristics (by ethnic group and geographical area) and voting patterns of Arab residents in mixed cities. The discussion then deals with two issues: (a) the question of the renewed connection between the Arab voter and Jewish parties; (b) the voting patterns of Christian voters. All data presented here were taken from the conclusions of Central Elections Committee.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Elections, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
24. To Close the Rifts, Leadership is Needed
- Author:
- Mohammad Darawshe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Mohammad Darawshe's article analyzes the factors behind the historic low in the participation rate of Arab citizens, who stood at only 49.2% in the last elections. For the Arab voter, there weren’t compelling reasons to vote in the 2019 Knesset elections. In fact, a number of reasons motivated them not to. Quarrels around the issue of seat rotation plagued the Joint List and clarified for the Arab voter that the hope for unity had been lost. The Arab public therefore decided to punish the parties, taking from them the privilege it had given, returning them to their natural size in order to school them in the laws of modesty. Arab voters perceived the Nation-State Law as the antithesis of the integration to which they aspire. The law conveyed a clear message to Arab citizens that a border had been placed before them, and that they should not cultivate aspirations for class equality. Arab leaders must open the ranks of leadership and accept into it pragmatic social and economic figures. The mechanism of political parties are outdated and no longer reflect the new moods of the Arab public. There is no doubt that it is time to open a new chapter in Center-Left relations with Arab society. Without Arab cooperation, the Center-Left bloc will never come to power. Conversely, without the partnership of the Center-Left, the Arab public will not be able to influence decision-making in the state of Israel.
- Topic:
- Minorities, Elections, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
25. Between the Rational and the Emotional: Factors Influencing the Political Participation of Arab Citizens in Israel
- Author:
- Morsi Abu Mokh
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- The current issue of Bayan is published almost one month before the elections for the 22nd Knesset, scheduled for September 17, 2019. This issue contains one essay by Dr. Morsi Abu Mokh who analyzes the factors that influence political participation among Israel's Arab citizens and their voting intentions in the Knesset elections.
- Topic:
- Politics, Minorities, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
26. The Spring’s Back in their Steps: Arab Politics Following the Twenty-second Knesset Elections
- Author:
- Mohammad Darawshe
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- Mohammad Darawshe, in the current issue of Bayan, discusses developments in Arab politics between the last two electoral campaigns, and addresses the future implications of the election results for the 22nd Knesset.
- Topic:
- Politics, Minorities, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
27. The Israeli Elections Just Got Interesting: Netanyahu’s Indictment and the New Center Left Alliance
- Author:
- Josh Dean
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- A little over a month ago, I wrote of an atmosphere of resignation in Israel among Netanyahu’s political opponents leading up to the Israeli parliamentary elections on April 9th. The smattering of center-left parties seeking to rival Netanyahu’s Likud at the ballot box were divided across a range of tickets, unable to put their egos aside and form a joint bloc capable of presenting a veritable challenge to the incumbent prime minister. The long-reigning Israeli leader’s tenure looked, therefore, set to extend even further. The question was not who will be the next prime minister, but rather “Who will be the next Bibi [Netanyahu]?” as Israeli comedian Tom Aharon quipped. But a lot can change in a day of Israeli politics, never mind a month. As political alliances shift rapidly, the announcement of Netanyahu’s indictment on fraud and corruption charges has further destabilized the already-turbulent atmosphere leading up to the April elections.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Law, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
28. To Close the Rifts, Leadership is Needed
- Author:
- Mohammad Darawshe
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For the Arab voter, there weren’t compelling reasons to vote in the 2019 Knesset elections. In fact, a number of reasons motivated them not to. Quarrels around the issue of seat rotation plagued the Joint List and clarified for the Arab voter that the hope for unity had been lost. The Arab public therefore decided to punish the parties, taking from them the privilege it had given, returning them to their natural size in order to school them in the laws of modesty.
- Topic:
- International Security, International Affairs, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
29. The Mueller Report: What it Includes, What it Omits, and What it Teaches
- Author:
- Itai Brun and Tehilla Shwartz Altschuler
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- On April 18, 2019, the US Department of Justice released a redacted version of the full report (448 pages) submitted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller about Russia’s interference in the 2016 US presidential elections. The report consists of two parts: the first presents the outcome of the investigation into Russia’s involvement in the election and draws conclusions regarding the presence or absence of a conspiracy or illegal coordination between the Russians and the Trump campaign; the second part deals with President Trump’s possible obstruction of justice regarding the FBI investigation into the Russian intervention and the investigation by the Special Counsel himself. This essay deals with the first part, i.e., the results of the investigation into the connection between the Russians and Trump for the purpose of influencing the election results. The report reflects accurately the US criminal law that deals with conspiracy and illegal coordination regarding elections. At the same time, it exposes a gap in the nation’s conceptual, organizational, legal, and technological preparedness to confront the possibilities that the digital space provides to undermine – internally and externally – the democratic process. Israel suffers from the same gap, and it is therefore imperative that the state confront it before the next Knesset election.
- Topic:
- Crime, Elections, Election Interference, and Investigations
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, and North America
30. Confessionalism and Electoral Prospects in Iraq
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Ever since Saddam’s regime was toppled in 2003, Iraq has three competitive parliamentary elections in 2005, 2010 and 2014. In all of these, pre-election alliance building and post-election coalition building processes were fairly predictable given the confessional nature of Iraq’s political system. Essentially, the system is centered on a politically conventional power-sharing arrangement among the country’s three main ethno-sectarian powerhouses: Shi’ite Arab Muslims, Sunni Arab Muslims, and the Kurds. This arrangement has prompted small political parties to forge alliances with these confessional powerhouses. This time round, this trend is likely to continue in the upcoming elections scheduled on 12 May 2018, but perhaps on a smaller scale. What gravitates political entities are political expediency and nationalist sentiments. These two factors seem to be shaping and forming some alliances such as between secular and civil-minded parties, the Shiite Sadrist movement via Hizb Istaqama (the Integrity Party), and the Iraqi Communist party. On 22 January 2018, Iraqi legislators ratified a decision to hold much-debated anticipated parliamentary elections on 12 May 2018, thereby ending the stalemate by some lawmakers to postpone it. Iraq is at a crossroads, and much of what is at stake will depend on which of the 27 registered electoral alliances emerge as winners. The large number of alliances suggests that political entities are aware of the competitive advantages inherent to forming these, versus running independently. Indeed, because of Iraq’s particular parliamentarian arrangement, the 24 million eligible voters in the 18 national electoral districts, representing the country’s 18 governorates, will not be electing the next prime minister – they will, instead, be picking an electoral alliance, which will engage in post-election coalition building negotiations to nominate the prime minister and form the next government. While it is still premature to forecast the ultimate composition of the next government, it is most likely to be led by one of four viable options: Eitilaf al-Nasr (Victory Alliance) led by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi; Eitilaf al-Wataniya (National Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Ayad Alawi; Eitilaf Dawlat al-Qanun (State of the Law Alliance) led by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki; and Tahaluf al-Fatah (Conquest Alliance) led by al-Hashd al-Sha’abi (Popular Mobilization Units) commander Hadi al-Ameri. However, given the unpopularity of Iraq’s political class, no single alliance is expected to win a majority of parliamentary seats, forcing the formation of a grand-coalition government. This, nevertheless, may help build broad-based support and legitimacy given Iraq’s oversized economic, security, and political challenges. Furthermore, the next election is expected to maintain the status quo due to the existence of potent structural forces inspired by political and electoral confessionalism. However, and encouragingly, the status quo may prove ephemeral in the face of internal divisions within the traditional confessional centers of power, the rising popular discontent with the quality of the existing democratic system and the limited progress it has made over the past fifteen years. It would be safe to say that an inclusive government can increase popular support, reduce the likelihood of ethno-sectarian civil war, minimise the influence of external powers, and bolster the nation’s attractiveness to foreign investors. In the long term, Iraq needs a government that is ambitiously reformist to transform the state’s political, electoral, and economic systems.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nationalism, Religion, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Baghdad, and Kurdistan