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161. How to Judge the Palestinian Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On Wednesday, January 25, Palestinian voters will elect a new Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) for the first time since the initial PLC was elected ten years ago. The participation of Hamas in the elections marks a turning point in Palestinian politics; the group boycotted the original 1996 ballots as part of its rejection of the Oslo process. Ensuring a smooth transition from elections to the seating of the new PLC will require passing several hurdles, not the least of which is protecting balloting and vote-counting from violent disruptions. Assuming election day proceeds without incident—no small matter given the level of domestic lawlessness over the last several weeks—Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas will then face the challenge of selecting a prime minister to form the next government. What remains unknown is precisely how well Hamas will finish in relation to Abbas' own Fatah party, and whether a tight race will lead Abbas to include Hamas as an active partner in the next Palestinian government—or, indeed, whether a poor Fatah showing might prompt Abbas to resign.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

162. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

163. Prospects for Mediation of the Lebanon Crisis

Author:
Patricia Karam and A. Heather Coyne
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The U.S. Institute of Peace was the venue for a roundtable session in mid-July to discuss the prospects for mediation of the current crisis in Lebanon. The discussants included former White House and State Department officials, as well as regional experts with experience in mediating previous conflicts between Israel and Lebanon. This USIPeace Briefing highlights the central points made during that discussion and does not represent the views of the Institute, which does not advocate specific policies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Lebanon

164. Economic Empowerment of Women in Iraq: The Way Forward

Author:
Yll Bajraktari
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
A UN/World Bank survey conducted after the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime revealed that even though women represented about 55 percent of Iraq's population, they made up only 23 percent of the workforce. Although the international community and Iraqis have since devoted considerable attention to boosting the status of women in Iraq, most of these efforts have focused on the social and political empowerment of women. Full democratic consolidation in Iraq can only be achieved by guaranteeing, in addition, a leading economic role for women in Iraq.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

165. What Do Islamists Really Want?

Author:
Abdeslam Maghraoui
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Throughout the Muslim world, Islamist parties have emerged as major power brokers when allowed to compete in free elections. Yet their positions on many crucial governance issues remain unknown or ambiguous. Most debates on the potential to moderate and integrate Islamists in the democratic process have focused on Islam's compatibility with democracy or on debates over Islamists' normative commitment to democracy separately from the mechanics of achieving political power.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Government, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East

166. Syria and Political Change II

Author:
Scott Lasensky
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
This is the second in a series of USIPeace Briefings written by Scott Lasensky and Mona Yacoubian of USIP's Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention. It is based on discussions at a recent seminar. The views expressed do not reflect those of USIP, which does not take policy positions. One year after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and facing mounting international pressure, the Syrian regime is consolidating its hold on power and adopting a more defiant stance, both in the region and toward the West. On December 12, Lebanese journalist Gibran Tueni—who had been staunchly opposed to Syrian involvement in Lebanon—was killed by a car bomb in Beirut. The attack occurred amidst continued Syrian intimidation of key witnesses as well as an orchestrated Syrian campaign to discredit the UN's Hariri investigation. Then, in a late December interview on al-Arabiya, former Syrian Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam accused the Syrian regime of directly threatening Hariri just before his death. Khaddam is now openly calling for regime change, even reaching out to exiled leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. In February 2006, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice criticized the Syrian government for encouraging violence and inflaming popular anger over the Danish cartoon controversy.
Topic:
Development, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

167. Lebanon's Confessionalism: Problems and Prospects

Author:
Imad K. Harb
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Over the past year and a half, Lebanon has witnessed tremendous political upheaval. In September 2004, Parliament extended the term of the country's president, Emile Lahoud, for three years after heavy-handed Syrian interference. Attempts were made on the lives of several public figures; among those killed was former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. A popular uprising forced Syria to withdraw the troops it had deployed in Lebanon since 1976. New parliamentary elections were held in May and June, 2005, and resulted in a new majority coalition of reform-minded, albeit sectarian, leaders who promised an overhaul of Lebanese politics.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

168. Interim Return and Palestine: On Politics, Terminology and Structural Invisibility

Author:
Riina Isotalo
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
Taking its cue from the literature on return migration and repatriation processes as well as the Palestinian refugee problem, this paper looks first at the issue of return to place of origin or not. Return migration to the West Bank and Gaza Strip is then considered in the light of this schema, and stipulations of the politicisation of a transnational paradigm and the structural invisibility of return migration are highlighted. The present paper argues that in the Palestinian context, return is a political issue for all parties concerned and that Palestinian return migration has been structurally invisible. The paper concludes that politicisation of a transnational paradigm should be acknowledged in studying Palestinians' transnational mobility and relations because otherwise the fact that some transnational practises might aim at permanent return can pass unnoticed.
Topic:
Development, Migration, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gaza

169. Scenarios for the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:
Alan Schwartz
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Three workshops explored hundreds of forces and factors relevant to insurgency outcomes and focused on key drivers to develop five alternative scenarios. These scenarios reflected the participants' perception that positive outcomes would be hard to achieve, and negative outcomes could be foreseen much more easily. The workshops' principal finding is that U.S. goals for Iraq and the region should be reexamined and scaled back. The administration's expressed goal of “an Iraq that is peaceful, united, stable, democratic, and secure, where Iraqis have the institutions and resources they need to govern themselves justly and provide security for their country” is possible only in the very long term. Avoidance of disaster and maintenance of some modicum of political stability in Iraq are more realistic goals—but even these will be hard to achieve without new strategies and actions. The scenarios include recommended adjustments to U.S. goals and strategies to achieve reduced expectations. Unfortunately, the United States is now in a position to influence but not to control outcomes; it will have to engage and enlist the cooperation of Iraq's neighbors to attain success. This report broadly outlines the strategies that appear best suited to the current situation and the unfolding futures the participants envisioned.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Middle East

170. The Role of Women in Stabilization and Reconstruction

Author:
Camille Pampell Conaway
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
It is widely recognized that women and young people are primary victims of conflict. During war, women are displaced, subjected to sexual violence and HIV/AIDS by fighting forces, and assume the caretaking role for children and the elderly. They are vulnerable to exploitation, abuse, sexual slavery, disease, and forced recruitment into armed groups. Yet as the survivors of violent conflict, women also bear the burden of reconstruction. They return to destroyed communities and begin the process of rebuilding infrastructure; restoring and developing traditions, laws, and customs; and repairing relationships. Despite rapid progress within the U.S. government to recognize the importance of women's inclusion in stabilization and reconstruction operations, no overarching strategy, mandate, or program exists to ensure implementation. Initiatives, funding, and projects remain ad hoc; research and best practices have not been consolidated; and much depends upon the individual knowledge, commitment, and insight of relevant staff at headquarters and in the field. The challenge of the Working Group on the Role of Women in Stabilization and Reconstruction Operations and the purpose of this report is to present a comprehensive list of recommendations to the U.S. government, as well as highlight several critical action areas with the potential to significantly impact the protection and participation of women in postwar situations. An ongoing, at-the-ready capability must be institutionalized within the U.S. government to enhance and protect the role of women in stabilization and reconstruction operations. The steps taken prior to an intervention will make all the difference in the success of the mission. The U.S. government should undertake the following necessary actions to make this capability an integral part of the policy process.
Topic:
Development and Gender Issues
Political Geography:
Middle East