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Begin New Search Topic Demographics Political Geography Middle East

1. Energy sector diversification: Meeting demographic challenges in the MENA region

Author:
Bina Hussein
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to witness a substantial growth in population over the next three decades. Many of the hydrocarbon-rich nations in this region will need to meet a commensurate increase in job demand. This report focuses on four nations that are predominantly reliant on the oil and gas sector: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Algeria. In all four nations, the majority of the local population is employed in the public sector, which, in the long term, will become economically unsustainable. In order to meet the growing job demand, these nations must both diversify their economies beyond the energy sector and expand their energy sectors beyond hydrocarbons. Doing so will create important employment opportunities in new industries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait all have strategies in place that, if followed, could pave the way towards a diversified knowledge-based economy. Algeria, on the other hand, is at a crossroads. Even as it is undergoing a political transition, the transition can create opportunities for the new government to change the country’s course and push economic reforms that are not only aimed at lowering the current unemployment rate but also at making the private sector more enticing. Additionally, all four nations will need to take steps to increase female participation in the workforce by easing current restrictions and making labor laws more favorable towards women. The energy sector plays a large role in the economies of all four nations. This sector has a critical role to play in efforts to diversify the economy and teach skills that will be beneficial in the future or can be applied in other sectors as well. Moreover, all four nations also have sovereign wealth funds that either play, or can play, a key role in diversifying the economy, strengthening existing industries, and helping to create new industries altogether. This report offers the following recommendations on how these four nations can work towards meeting demographic challenges in relation to the economy, specifically the role of the energy sector: Governments can strengthen the private sector through increased foreign investment and by incentivizing entrepreneurship through reforms that open up the economy and make it more lucrative for investors. Governments can create laws and support structures that encourage women to work and increase female participation in the workforce. Opportunities should be provided to teach skills and impart knowledge relevant to the job market that will also be relevant in the future. Lessons should be learned from the experience of the energy sector and leveraged to achieve successes in other areas. For example, the state-owned oil and gas companies have successfully set up a structure that allows them to not only invest in their employees but also take care of the community by offering health care services, education, and more.
Topic:
Demographics, Energy Policy, Markets, Oil, Governance, Geopolitics, Gas, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, and Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

2. Urban Drivers of Political Violence

Author:
Antonio Sampaio
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The demographic trend of urbanisation, while not a cause of conflict, exacerbates local tensions and weak governance. It also creates an urgent need to understand the policy challenges that exist in cities such as Mogadishu, Nairobi, Kabul and Karachi. The rate of growth of the urban population in the four countries covered by this study was above the global average for the 2015–20 period – and more than double the average in the cases of Kenya and Somalia. With the exception of Pakistan, these countries also registered higher urban population growth in 2018 than the average for fragile and conflict-affected countries, which was 3.2%. Typically built without formal land rights, lacking basic public services, and featuring low-quality housing in overcrowded conditions, slums are perhaps the most visible characteristic of cities undergoing rapid and unmanaged urbanisation. But they are not the only one. Cities located in or near areas where armed conflict is taking place also tend to be split by several dividing lines – between slums and the rest of the city, between ethnic groups, between licit and illicit (often criminal) economies, and between violent and safe areas. Whereas many of these divisions may be part of broader national problems, their geographical concentration in the limited confines of a city creates distinctly urban drivers of violence, and therefore requires tailored policies in response. These divisions, exacerbated by the rapid urbanisation process, have contributed to a decline in state authority – governmental capacity to enforce rules, monopoly over the use of force, taxation and other state prerogatives – at the municipal level. In cities, therefore, security and governance go hand in hand. The existence of organised armed groups able to replace key state functions makes the challenges in cities affected by armed conflict particularly urgent. This report sheds light on the ways in which cities contribute to the weakening of state authority, and aims to provide a basis for the formulation of better, more tailored policies.
Topic:
Political Violence, Demographics, Urban, Housing, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kenya, Africa, Middle East, Somalia, Nairobi, Karachi, Kabul, and Mogadishu

3. How Demographics Erode the Patronage Buying Power of Iraq’s Muhasasa Ta’ifia

Author:
Ahmed Tabaqchali
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Iraq’s post-2003 political order, characterized by Muhasasa Ta’ifia with political sectarian elites using employment in public services to strengthen clientelism, has become economically unsustainable. The author’s earlier paper for the Arab Reform Initiative examined the impact of the drop in oil prices on the system. This article examines how Iraq’s growing demography erodes the patronage buying power of the sectarian elites, even though spending on clientelism has mushroomed over the years.
Topic:
Demographics, Inequality, and Elites
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

4. The Crisis of Violence in Israeli Arab Society

Author:
Edy Cohen
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Arab politicians blame the Israeli establishment for the rampaging violence in Israeli Arab society, but ignore the underlying problems in their own sociopolitical culture that foster that violence.
Topic:
Demographics, Politics, Law Enforcement, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. Attempts at Reforming Egyptian Demographic Policy

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The population of Egypt, the EU’s second-most populous neighbour after Russia, will soon exceed 100 million. The fast pace of the population growth together with the country’s inefficient economy could spur new crises caused by rising unemployment and difficult access to drinking water and food resources, and by politics. The Egyptian government, in cooperation with the EU, U.S., and UN, launched programmes aimed at reducing the fertility rate. Limiting the pace of Egypt’s population growth should weaken factors inciting further destabilisation of the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Demographics, Natural Resources, Unemployment, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

6. Middle East Demographics to 2030

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this edition of Iqtisadi, Paul Rivlin examines the "MENA Generation 2030" UNICEF report, and its implications. According to the United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) the population of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA: the Arab countries and Iran) will increase from 484 million in 2018 to 581 million in 2030 and 724 million in 2050.[1] (See Table 1) Between 2018 and 2030, the population is forecast rise by almost 1.7 percent annually and between 2030 and 2050 by just over 1.2 percent annually. By far the largest country demographically is Egypt, and its population is forecast to rise by almost 1.8 percent annually between 2018 and 2030 and by almost 1.4 percent annually between 2030 and 2050. This edition of Iqtisadi examines the report and its implications.
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Economy, and Population Growth
Political Geography:
Middle East

7. One City, Two Realities: Jerusalem Public Opinion Survey 2018

Author:
Dan Miodownik and Noam Brenner
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
This public opinion survey covers different issues of life in Jerusalem of its Israeli and Palestinian residents. It surveys their expressions about local needs, who they view as their local leadership, their social attitudes and ways of communication. It also explores perceptions of violence, life satisfaction and also questions about the future of Jerusalem and municipal elections. ​ This survey is a part of a larger peacebuilding initiative in Jerusalem called “Building Visions for the Future of Jerusalem: A Bottom-Up Approach”. As such, the survey is one of a few ways to collect and give voice to the residents’ needs and perceptions regarding their life in Jerusalem. Its final objectives are to to better understand the foundations for cooperation between the two populations in this contested city, in order to assist in improving their well-being.
Topic:
Demographics, Territorial Disputes, Public Opinion, and Survey
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

8. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2015

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, Isabelle Facon, Adrien Fauve, Thorniké Gordadze, Sergei Guriev, Raphaël Lefèvre, Gilles Lepesant, and Céline Marangé
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
"Looking into Eurasia" provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Energy Policy, Migration, Nationalism, Political Economy, Sovereignty, Terrorism, Natural Resources, Europeanization, Political Science, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus, Middle East, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Western Europe, and European Union

9. Syrian refugees in Turkey: a burden or benefit?

Author:
M. Murat Erdoğan
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:
This second paper of the DCAF-STRATIM paper series by M. Murat Erdogan analyses the situation of Syrian refugees in Turkey, and the resulting challenges for both the refugees themselves and for Turkish society. The author argues that although the Turkish government does not officially acknowledge Syrians as refugees, Turkey has maintained an open door policy and provides them with considerable opportunities, rights and services€. The author calls on Turkey to review its approach towards Syrian refugees as the current approach is based on the wrong assumption of it being a temporary phenomenon€. The author expects a high probability that significant numbers of Syrians will permanently remain in Turkey. Since the first wave of Syrian refugees reached Turkey on 28 April 2011, the flow has not halted. With the Syrian civil war in its sixth year, expectations for a peaceful Syria in the short- and medium-term have faded considerably. The author calls for smart strategies, in line with human rights, and supported by Turkish society, for integration and co-existence based on efficient registration, better coordination between relevant agencies, a focus on education and the provision of working permits.
Topic:
Demographics, Human Rights, Refugee Issues, Refugee Crisis, Syrian War, and State
Political Geography:
Geneva, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

10. Religious Minorities in the Modern Middle East

Author:
Lev Weitz
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The majority of the Middle East’s population today is Muslim, as it has been for centuries. However, as the place of origin of a range of world religions – including Judaism, Christianity, Zoroastrianism, and many lesser-known faiths – it remains a region of remarkable religious diversity. This article considers the place of religious minorities in the modern Middle East from three angles: their distinctive religious and communal identities, their place in the major transformations of the region’s political landscape from the nineteenth century to the post-World War I era, and the challenges of contemporary political conditions.
Topic:
Demographics, Islam, Religion, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries