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Begin New Search Topic Civil Unrest Political Geography Middle East

1. Protests in Iran in comparative perspective: A revolutionary state in trouble

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Hamidreza Azizi
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Successive protests in 2009, 2019 and 2022 have poignantly laid bare the much reduced social and political legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Reform-from-within is no longer viewed as credible. Even former pro-reform leaders like Mousavi have abandoned hope and call for regime change. While further protests are inevitable, it is nevertheless unlikely that they will produce a revolution that overthrows the regime in the short-term, as long as their national organisation and leadership remain weak, Iran’s ruling elites cohesive, security forces loyal, and the administration continues to function. The country has witnessed hundreds of protests every year for the past few years, in addition to those of 2009, 2019 and 2022, but calls for fundamental change continue to go unheeded. The hope of the ruling elite is that the mix of repression and Iran’s dire economic situation will prevent protests from recurring. At best, quasi-reforms will provide some band-aids. In both scenarios, the Islamic Republic of Iran is no more in the sense that it lacks legitimacy among large segments of the population. It has also shed the elements of republican governance it used to have. And yet it lives on because it remains a capable state with a fairly cohesive ruling elite and ample coercive power. Iran is on course to become a classic one-party authoritarian regime, which may shed some of its religious orientations once its Supreme Leader leaves office for reasons of age. It remains to be seen how sustainable this will be given the crescendo of protests.
Topic:
Security, Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

2. Syria: Unrest and Cracks in the Status Quo

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Syria is witnessing both nonviolent and violent turmoil that extends in an arc from the north to the east, the most prominent of which disintegrating the pillars of the regime in the Sweida region, as well as the structure that brings together the SDF with some tribal factions under American backing in the eastern areas near Deir ez-Zor. These dynamics may evolve into changes in the structure and scope of control.
Topic:
Protests, Syrian War, Civil Unrest, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, Suwayda, and Deir e-Zor

3. Iran’s Khuzestan: Thirst and Turmoil

Author:
International Crisis Group
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Episodes of unrest in Iran often unfold similarly: the government nods to public concerns, but then resorts to repression, setting the stage for another confrontation between state and society. The pattern is clearest in peripheral provinces like Khuzestan, where a pressing grievance is water scarcity.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Governance, Services, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Khuzestan

4. Additional Losses: Examining the severity of the protests' impact on Iran's economy

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Widespread protests broke out across Iran after the death of Mahsa Amini in a hospital in Tehran in September 2022 while in the custody of the country's morality police. While the current protests differ from previous protests in that protestors demanded women's rights be respected. Later, the protests spread, and the protesters demanded regime change. Yet, the economy's deterioration is one of the main drivers of the spread of the angry protests. As social unrest is likely to further exacerbate across Iran, the protests are likely to incur financial and trade losses, further complicating the economic situation.
Topic:
Economy, Domestic Politics, Protests, Inflation, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

5. Iran Protests: Limitations of foreign support to protests

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
National Council of Resistance of Iran has said more than 400 Iranians have been killed and over 20,000 arrested since the breakout of nation-wide protests in Iran. Popular unrests and violence have been sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, three days after she was being detained by ‘morality police’ for claims of violating hijab laws.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Protests, Foreign Interference, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

6. Possible Prospects: The chances of success of Iraq’s national dialogue

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Iraqi political forces and government representatives, at a meeting on September 5, agreed on six recommendations, which include the creation of a technical team to shape views and perceptions and reconcile different views to pave the way for early elections. The meeting was held as part of the second round of the national dialogue, held despite the Sadrist Movement’s rejection of the dialogue. The first round, held on August 17, was attended by leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework, leaders from other political forces as well as the Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Iraq Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Civil Unrest, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

7. No Going Back: Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring

Author:
Roy Gutman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
nterviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute has launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the third essay in the series, Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Roy Gutman opens up the floor for prominent activists to share their observations and lessons learned a decade after the Arab Spring. With a focus on six countries—Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Yemen—this paper shows that despite widespread disappointment with the eventual results of the uprisings, the desire for change persists, the fear barrier has been broken, and hope prevails that a new generation of reformers will ultimately deliver lasting change to the region.
Topic:
Reform, Arab Spring, Protests, Civil Unrest, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

8. Why the Phrase “Arab Spring” Should be Retired

Author:
Sean David Hobbs
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
It’s time to stop using a Western-based concept ten years on from the events that began the Arab Uprisings.
Topic:
Social Movement, Arab Spring, Decolonization, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and MENA

9. A New Season of Unrest in Lebanon

Author:
Andrea Carboni
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
ACLED has completed a review of the Lebanese news outlet El Nashra in a monthslong effort to improve coverage of political violence and protest throughout Lebanon. The data release has resulted in the addition of over 2,000 events to the ACLED dataset, accounting for approximately a fourth of the total events recorded between 2016 and 2021 across the country. While not altering underlying trends observed in previous analysis, this supplementation significantly enhances the disaggregation of the ACLED dataset, with more than 60 new locations now recorded as sites of political disorder in Lebanon. What follows is an updated assessment of recent trends in conflict and demonstration activity around the country.
Topic:
Political Violence, News Analysis, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

10. Religious Repression and Disorder: Egypt, Israel, and Palestine

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The ACLED-Religion pilot project collects real-time data on religious repression and disorder in the Middle East and North Africa. This spotlight report analyzes key trends from the latest data on Egypt, Israel, and Palestine. For more, download the full ACLED-Religion dataset or explore the data through the interactive ACLED-Religion dashboard.
Topic:
Religion, Repression, Sexuality, Morality, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Egypt