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51. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Author:
Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

52. Exploring the Rationale for Decentralization in Iraq and its Constraints

Author:
Ali Al-Mawlawi
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The decentralization agenda emerged in Iraq after 2003 as an imperative to create an internal balance of power that would mitigate against the rise of another authoritarian regime. By exploring the political motivations and calculations of elites, this paper sheds light on why devolution of powers to sub-national entities failed to bring about meaningful change to the daily lives of ordinary Iraqis. While administrative authorities have been largely devolved, fiscal decentralization lags due to resistance from concerned central authorities, leaving sub-national actors with limited capacity to exercise their newly afforded powers.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, State Formation, State Building, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Baghdad

53. Egypt’s Consolidated Authoritarianism

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
The current Egyptian political scene reveals an important paradox: since its ascendancy to power in 2013, the military-led authoritarian government has not faced significant challenges from civil society despite systematic hu- man rights abuses and continuous societal crises. Apart from limited protests by labor activists, student movements, and members of syndicates, Egyptians have mostly refrained from protesting, instead hoping that the government will improve their living conditions despite a rising poverty rate of 33 percent, an inflation rate between 11 and 12 percent, and unemployment at eight percent. This popular reluctance to challenge the authoritarian government has continued to shape Egypt’s reality since the collapse of the short-lived democratization process from 2011–2013.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Rule of Law, Protests, and Dictatorship
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

54. The Promises And Perils Of Diaspora Mobilization Against Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Dana Moss
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Transnational social movements play a critical role in the fight against authoritarianism, and a growing field of diaspora studies shows that exiles, émigrés, emigrants, and refugees are especially well positioned to undermine dictatorships from abroad. Given their cross-border ties, diasporas often mobilize against abuses taking place in their homelands, move aid to war zones and refugee camps, and fuel revolutionary social change. Exiles who gain the right to protest and lobby in their places of settlement can also become powerful players in international relations. Iraqi expatriate Ahmed Chalabi, who helped to justify the United States-led invasion of Iraq by fabricating evidence of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, is just one example of how influential exiles can be when exacting revenge on the autocrats who abused them.
Topic:
Diaspora, Authoritarianism, Democracy, and Protests
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

55. The Syrian State: A Two-Headed Monster is Emerging

Author:
Bassma Kodmani
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Collapse of the Syrian state is largely a reality. Both Russia and Iran, Assad’s allies, know he is not the guarantor of the continuity of the state any more but continue to hold on to him to sign off on projects that consolidate their control. This paper argues that instead of a failed state, a two-headed system has emerged, with Iran and Russia each pushing for their own vision of the country.
Topic:
Imperialism, Fragile/Failed State, Authoritarianism, Military Intervention, and Repression
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and Damascus

56. Fragile States Index 2019

Author:
Fund for Peace
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Fund for Peace
Abstract:
The Fragile States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Fragile States Index — and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built — makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Fragile States, Political stability, Arab Spring, Peace, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Africa, Caucasus, Middle East, Brazil, Yemen, South America, Central America, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritius, and Global Focus

57. The Promises and Perils of Diaspora Mobilization Against Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Dana Moss
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Institution:
Brown Journal of World Affairs
Abstract:
Transnational social movements play a critical role in the fight against authoritarianism, and a growing field of diaspora studies shows that exiles, émigrés, emigrants, and refugees are especially well positioned to undermine dictatorships from abroad.1 Given their cross-border ties, diasporas often mo- bilize against abuses taking place in their homelands, move aid to war zones and refugee camps, and fuel revolutionary social change.2 Exiles who gain the right to protest and lobby in their places of settlement can also become powerful players in international relations. Iraqi expatriate Ahmed Chalabi, who helped to justify the United States-led invasion of Iraq by fabricating evidence of Saddam Hussein’s weapons of mass destruction, is just one example of how influential exiles can be when exacting revenge on the autocrats who abused them.3
Topic:
Diaspora, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, Mobilization, and Activism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria

58. Social Capital in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Huseyin Emre Ceyhun
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Levels of social capital, which is often operationalized by measures of trust, have changed significantly in the Middle East and North Africa over the past 15 years. The 2011 uprisings marked a critical juncture for atrophying, status-quo statesociety relations: citizens questioned the nature of governance while governments grappled with reinvigorated demands of citizenship. These demands were not fully met, however, and peaceful transitions towards democracy did not ensue. Instead, many countries experienced significant conflict, including proxy-wars resulting from interests of regional powers and sectarian differences. As of 2019, Tunisia remained as the only country that is on a democratic but fragile path toward a democratic consolidation. In this context and over a 13 year period (2006-2019), the Arab Barometer can present an overarching picture of how political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East have changed in the years surrounding the 2011 Arab uprisings. With few exceptions, political and interpersonal trust in the Middle East has been decreasing, demonstrating the extent of anti-establishment feelings nurtured in societies. However, trust in legal systems has not decreased as much as trust in political institutions such as government and parliament. These findings suggest that despite widespread lack of confidence in governments and parliaments, ordinary citizens have not entirely given up on existing systems of governance. These patterns are clearly evident in Tunisia, the only country generally considered to have fully undertaken a democratic transition after the Arab uprisings. All measures of trust show a similar declining trend for political and interpersonal trust in Tunisia since 2011. As of 2018, only 20 percent of Tunisians trust the government, compared with 14 percent who trust parliament, and only 8 percent who have high levels of interpersonal trust. However, trust in the legal system (48 percent) is virtually unchanged between 2011 and 2018, suggesting that Tunisians might still be still committed to the system brought about by the Arab Spring.
Topic:
Governance, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Citizenship, Arab Spring, Proxy War, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

59. The 2019 Algerian Protests

Author:
Michael Robbins
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
As a country that experienced few protests during the Arab uprisings of 2011, this year’s demonstrations in Algeria caught most observers by surprise. The massive outpouring of public opinion, which has continued for months, has toppled a long-standing leader and continues to challenge the ruling system. The 2019 Arab Barometer public opinion survey was conducted on the eve of the protests, lending unique insight into several key questions: Were these protests to be expected? What drives the protests? And, what do Algerians want for the future? The survey results demonstrate that declining conditions meant a breakdown of the social contract among all segments of society, which resulted in a high level of protest activity in recent years. However, these protests occurred largely outside the capital, leading many analysts to likely overlook them. Nevertheless, the survey suggests that while Algerians know what they do not want, they are divided on what they seek to achieve for the future, remaining skeptical of democracy and divided on the role of religion in public life. In other words, there is not a clear way forward or clear destination – instead, Algerians appear open to any system of governance that can bring improved governance and better economic outcomes.
Topic:
Religion, Social Movement, Public Opinion, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Protests, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Middle East, Algeria, and North Africa

60. After the Killing of Jamal Khashoggi: Muhammad bin Salman and the Future of Saudi-U.S. Relations

Author:
F. Gregory Gause III
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
On October 24, 2017, Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, welcomed over 3,500 of the world’s financial elites to a conference center adjoining the Ritz Carlton Hotel in Riyadh for an “economic coming-out party.”1 The crown prince was selling investors and government officials on his plans for the transformation of the country, not just its economy but also its society. His Vision 2030 plan to lessen the economy’s dependence on oil and increase the role of the private sector required investment, both from at home and abroad.2 It was a glittering show, featuring plans for a new city on the Red Sea coast, Neom, which would be staffed at least in part by robots. Within a few weeks of this impressive gathering, hundreds of the Kingdom’s economic and political elites were prisoners in that same Ritz Carlton. One year after the conference, self-exiled Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was killed by agents of the Saudi government in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. When the crown prince convened a second investment conference in Riyadh, a “Davos in the desert” as some billed it, in October 2018, the guest list was much reduced. A number of high-profile political leaders and CEO’s backed out, including the U.S. treasury secretary, the president of the World Bank, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the CEOs of JPMorgan Chase, HSBC, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, and the London Stock Exchange.3 While $50 billion in investment deals were announced, over $30 billion were with Saudi Aramco, the state oil company.4 In the year between the two conferences, the crown prince suffered a number of setbacks that called into question both his judgment and his political capacity. The killing of Jamal Khashoggi was simply the most recent in that line. Whether the killing was directly ordered by the crown prince or the work of close aides who believed they were carrying out his wishes, the ultimate responsibility rests with him. Some of those setbacks can be attributed to MBS’s own decisions; others simply reinforced the fact that there are considerable obstacles confronting his ambitious plans. His regional foreign policy initiatives, in particular, have not worked out as he had hoped. But these setbacks do not mean that the crown prince’s days are numbered in the Saudi leadership. He has successfully consolidated power in his own hands in a way that is unprecedented in recent Saudi history. The Trump administration, which hitched its wagon to MBS in an imprudent and counter-productive way, now has to decide how to use the fallout from this crisis to change MBS’s behavior, avoiding the extremes of a purely symbolic reaction that has no effect on Saudi policy and the unrealistic goal of declaring, as Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham did, that the crown prince “has got to go.”5
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Authoritarianism, and Assassination
Political Geography:
Middle East, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations