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91. The Assad Regime’s Hold on the Syrian State

Author:
Kheder Khaddour
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the early days of the Syrian uprising in 2011, President Bashar al-Assad’s regime has made it a priority to keep state agencies running, allowing Assad to claim that the regime is the irreplaceable provider of essential services. Breaking the regime’s monopoly on these public services and enabling the moderate opposition to become an alternative source of them would weaken the regime and prevent the radical jihadist Islamic State from emerging to fill power vacuums across the country.
Topic:
Civil War, Democratization, Islam, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arab Countries

92. Authoritarian Regime Learning: Comparative Insights from the Arab Uprisings

Author:
André Bank and Mirjam Edel
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
This paper examines the learning of authoritarian regimes in the early phase of the Arab uprisings. Differentiating conceptually between learning and policy change, we analyze and compare the authoritarian regimes of Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan, and Syria and their reactions to the challenge of "late riser" oppositional protests. We first show that the four regimes initiated very diverse measures in the domains of repression, material co‐optation, and legal reforms. With regard to the sources of learning, we find that proximity is a determining factor, in terms of both geography and political similarity. Using the case of Bahrain, we then demonstrate that structural factors such as internal power structures, regional and international pressures, or state capacity can decisively constrain the implementation of learning‐induced policy change. Overall, the paper aims to contribute to the emerging research on the international dimension of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and beyon
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Political Activism, and Reform
Political Geography:
Middle East

93. Voices of the Arab Spring: Personal Stories from the Arab Revolutions

Author:
Asaad Al-Saleh
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Book
Institution:
Columbia University Press
Abstract:
Narrated by dozens of activists and everyday individuals, this book documents the unprecedented events that led to the collapse of dictatorial regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. Beginning in 2011, these stories offer unique access to the message that inspired citizens to act, their experiences during revolt, and the lessons they learned from some of the most dramatic changes and appalling events to occur in the history of the Arab world. The riveting, revealing, and sometimes heartbreaking stories in this volume also include voices from Syria. Featuring participants from a variety of social and educational backgrounds and political commitments, these personal stories of action represent the Arab Spring's united and broad social movements, collective identities, and youthful character. For years, the volume's participants lived under regimes that brutally suppressed free expression and protest. Their testimony speaks to the multifaceted emotional, psychological, and cultural factors that motivated citizens to join together to struggle against their oppressors.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Insurgency, Authoritarianism, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa
Publication Identifier:
9780231163194
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

94. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System

Author:
Kawa Hassan
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan

95. The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State

Author:
Eva Bellin, Raymond Hinnebusch, Steven Heydemann, Ellis Goldberg, and Pete W. Moore
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
It is sometimes hard to remember that the Arab uprisings of 2010-11 promised the possibility of meaningful political change. The unprecedented outburst of popular mobilization overthrew some regimes and unsettled most of the others. Those hopes have long since come crashing down. Egypt’s transition ended in a military coup, bloody repression, and a neo-authoritarianism legitimated through xenophobic populism. Tunisia’s survived, barely. Libya, Yemen, and Syria have suffered near-complete political collapse, polarization, and civil war. Almost every regime has become more intolerant and more repressive. Violent, extremist Islamist movements such as the Islamic State group have surged in this chaotic atmosphere. How should we understand the authoritarian resurgence in the aftermath of the Arab uprisings? In October 2014, Toby Dodge and I jointly convened a POMEPS-London School of Economics workshop to dig more deeply into the causes, mechanisms, and drivers of what he called “The Arab Thermidor.” More than a dozen scholars looked deeply at specific sectors such as the military, police and intelligence services, different countries, and the broader regional environment. Some of the papers produced for that workshop have been published on the Monkey Cage, and all of them have today been released as POMEPS Studies 11 The Arab Thermidor: The Resurgence of the Security State, available as a free downloadable PDF. The papers in this collection offer a sharp, comprehensive, and acute look at the resurgence and persistence of the Arab authoritarian state.
Topic:
Security, Authoritarianism, Arab Spring, and Political Science
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

96. Sisi’s Harvest: Illusion of Stability, Perpetuation of Unrest

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Events in Egypt last Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the 25 January revolution, had been gestating for almost nineteen months. Popular opposition to the 3 July 2013 regime has continued at varying scales, ranging from massive assemblies at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares to small demonstrations all over the country, with larger ones on Fridays. But the fourth anniversary’s events marked a deep change in the popular opposition’s temperament, and the sheer size of the demonstrations was more massive than any of last year’s popular movements. This image presents a stark contrast to the message that the regime has been trying to disseminate regionally and globally, claiming it is finally and successfully in control of the country, and that the sole challenge it has to overcome today is that of the economy. This paper presents an initial reading of the events of that day, and their implications for the futures of both the popular opposition and the regime, ending with a discussion on how regional and global forces view the regime.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Revolution, Civil Unrest, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

97. Russia and the Arab Spring

Author:
Alexander Vysotsky
Publication Date:
12-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Connections
Institution:
Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:
The Russian attitude to the Arab Spring—a mixture of skepticism, caution and mis-trust—was for a long time poorly understood outside the country. In the West, which initially saw in the Arab Spring the familiar battle between “democracy from below” and “dictatorship from above,” many accused Moscow of sympathizing with outdated au-thoritarian regimes, even facilitating their behavior, and of being incapable of keeping up with the times. Later, the situation changed. As democratic revolutions were replaced by civil con-flicts (some more peaceful, others more bloody, all exacerbated by ethnic or religious differences) Russia’s conservative position started to find support, both within the Mid-dle East and beyond. The breakthrough Russo-American agreement on Syrian chemical weapons opened the door to the Geneva II talks, bringing factions within Syria to the same talks table, and also helping regulate the Iranian nuclear issue. To understand the factors that shaped the Russian attitude to the Arab Spring, we need to review recent Russian history and how the situation has changed Russia’s bor-ders. In this article, we will attempt to circumscribe these factors, and offer insights into their true nature.
Topic:
Imperialism, Social Movement, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Arab Spring, and Protests
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

98. Chinese Scholarship on Iran and the Middle East

Author:
Nadia Helmy
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Iranian Review of Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:
In the past three decades, Chinese Iranian and Middle East Studies have become more and more systematic, which is reflected not only in the great volume of publication, but also in the varied research methodologies and the increase in Iranian and Middle East academic journals. The development of Chinese Middle East studies have accelerated in particular after Arab Spring revolutions and the political changes in the Middle East (2000- 2013). Research institutes evolved from state-controlled propaganda offices into multi-dimensional academic and non-academic entities, including universities, research institutes, military institutions, government offices, overseas embassies and mass media. At the same time, publications evolved from providing an introduction and overview of Iran and Middle Eastern states to in-depth studies of Middle East politics and economics in three stages: beginnings (1949- 1978), growth (1979- 1999), and dealing with energy, religion, culture, society and security. The Middle East-related research programs' funding provided by provincial, ministerial and national authorities have increased and the quality of research has greatly improved. And finally, China has established, as well as joined, various academic institutions and NGOs, such as the Chinese Middle East Studies Association (CMESA), the Asian Middle East Studies Association (AMESA) and the Arabic Literature Studies Association (ALSA). However, Chinese Middle East Studies remain underdeveloped, both in comparison with China's American, European, and Japanese studies at home, and with Middle East studies in the West.
Topic:
Security, Energy Policy, Government, Politics, Religion, Culture, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Japan, China, America, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Arabia

99. Avoiding Assad's Forced Solution to the Syria Crisis

Author:
Andrew J. Tabler
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Given that Assad and his backers want to gut the transition process called for in the Geneva Communique, Washington should plan to take other steps in parallel to the Geneva process.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Armed Struggle, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Geneva, Britain, United States, Iran, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, France, London, Germany, Saudi Arabia, United Nations, Italy, Syria, Switzerland, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

100. Assad's Indispensable Foreign Legions

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Assad is still standing, but he is not standing alone -- and he likely no longer makes decisions alone either.
Topic:
Armed Struggle and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria