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31. Gaza’s Day After Starts in Ramallah

Author:
Francesca Borri
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The toing and froing of proposals and counterproposals for a ceasefire in Gaza has been going on for months now. The talks between the Israeli government and Hamas, however, have never really been about numbers: how many hostages to release, which ones, in return for how many and which prisoners, and how many days of truce. The sticking point is another: Hamas calls for the end of the war, and the Israeli government for the end of Hamas. This means that, in reality, the stand-off is all about the “day after”. How can a government be established in Gaza that ensures freedom and development on one side, and security on the other one? And yet, that’s what no one has been working on. While most mediators admit by now that Hamas will not be destroyed, in the ceasefire talks the issue of the “day after” continues not to be factored in.
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

32. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

33. After a year of war, Hamas is militarily weakened — but far from ‘eliminated’

Author:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
One year after the onset of the current crisis in the Middle East, following Hamas’ deadly attack on southern Israel on 7 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow of “complete victory” and the “elimination” of Hamas as a threat to Israel1 remains unfulfilled. While Israeli officials claim that Hamas no longer exists as a military force in Gaza, ACLED data show that Hamas still retains some operational capabilities and continues to engage with Israeli forces across the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas has also escalated its military activities in the West Bank. With the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently having shifted focus to confronting Hezbollah in the north and no ceasefire in Gaza in sight, Hamas continues to remain a significant actor in Palestine despite its now-diminished military capabilities and the significant humanitarian toll on Palestinians in Gaza.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Hamas, Humanitarian Crisis, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

34. Syria: Which groups have been fighting each other and where?

Author:
Muaz Al Abdullah
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Despite the recent coordination between opposition groups in the Military Operations Command (MOC) coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the future shape of Syria remains uncertain due to historical hostilities and ongoing divisions among the different armed groups throughout the country. ACLED data highlights previous confrontations between these groups since April 2020, when the territorial control of the country was frozen (see maps below). Although Islamic State fighters no longer control territory in Syria, their interactions with key actors — including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — remain an important dimension of the conflict.
Topic:
Armed Forces, Syrian War, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Armed Conflict, and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

35. Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy

Author:
Dennis Ross and Melani Cammett
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
MIT Center for International Studies
Abstract:
Starr Forum: The Israel-Gaza crisis and US policy: Tuesday, September 24th, 2024. Introduction: Evan Lieberman, Director, Center for International Studies and Total Professor of Political Science and Contemporary Africa Moderator: Philip Khoury, MIT Vice Provost and Ford International Professor of History Closing remarks: Karl Reid, Vice President for Equity and Inclusion, Institute Community & Equity Office Speakers: Dennis Ross is the counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He also teaches at Georgetown University’s Center for Jewish Civilization. For more than twelve years, Ambassador Ross played a leading role in shaping US involvement in the Middle East peace process as the US point man on the peace process in both the George H W Bush and Bill Clinton administrations. He also served as special assistant to President Obama and as National Security Council senior director for the Central Region, and as special advisor on Iran to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Melani Cammett is the Clarence Dillon Professor of International Affairs and director of the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard University. She also holds a secondary faculty appointment in the Harvard Chan School of Public Health. Cammett's award-winning books include "Compassionate Communalism: Welfare and Sectarianism in Lebanon" and "A Political Economy of the Middle East." Her current research projects explore "toleration" and reconciliation after ethnoreligious violence, development and identity politics. She has published numerous articles in academic and policy journals, consults for development policy organizations, and serves as a commissioner on the Lancet Commission on Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Humanitarian Crisis, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Gaza, and United States of America

36. Politics of Apathy and All-Out War in the Post-Gaza New World

Author:
Abdalhadi Alijla
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
The genocidal campaign against the Gaza Strip threatens widening of the conflict into a regional war, creating new realities that may endure for decades
Topic:
Genocide, Armed Conflict, International Order, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

37. Iranians Don’t Want a War With Israel

Author:
Kourosh Ziabari
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Most believe that Tehran’s engagement in the battle for Palestinian emancipation is intrusive and uncalled for
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

38. Economic Cooperation: A Driver of Stability in the MENA Region?

Author:
Valeria Talbot
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
Abstract:
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region faces a complex landscape where economic cooperation is increasingly linked to regional stability. For decades, economic factors have influenced the foreign policy of MENA countries. However, since 2020, shared economic challenges – exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic, oil market fluctuations and the global repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – have spurred initiatives for rapprochement. The October 7 attacks and subsequent Gaza and Lebanon conflicts pose a threat to such progresses. Can economic partnerships serve as a basis for lasting peace in MENA region? What forms of collaboration could enhance stability in the face of persistent security challenges? What are the primary constraints and challenges that limit the potential of economic cooperation as a stabilizing force in the MENA region?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economic Cooperation, COVID-19, Armed Conflict, Abraham Accords, Russia-Ukraine War, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Gulf Nations

39. Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015. A few days later, on 2 April, a United Nations (UN)-mediated truce came into effect, which lasted until 2 October and, as of the time of writing, has effectively terminated Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi and Emirati territories. In the current situation of relative stability, Saudi-Houthi talks are ongoing to renew and expand the truce.
Topic:
Deterrence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

40. Is There a Way Forward for Political Resolution in Yemen?

Author:
Fatima Abo Alasrar and Ibrahim Jalal
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Director of MEI's Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to MEI Non-Resident Scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar & Ibrahim Jalal on a host of current events in Yemen. What have been the takeaways from U.S. Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking's recent visit to the country - and what are the current trends in the Saudi-Houthi dialogue?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Politics, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations