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101. A strategy to rescue diplomacy on Syria

Author:
Mona Yacoubian
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The Syrian crisis is rapidly turning into a humanitarian and security nightmare with regional and possibly global implications. The conflict is now firmly entrenched in a military stalemate. While “stalemate” conveys a sense of stasis, the impasse translates into the deepening deterioration of conditions on the ground. Meanwhile, the supercharged sectarian dynamic emanating from Syria is severely threatening regional stability, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, which have both witnessed significant increases in sectarian violence. The conflict’s severity underscores that neither a disavowal of diplomacy nor its failure are options, yet the Geneva II process is faltering badly. If it fails, the conflict’s partisans and their external patrons will likely default to escalation and increased militarisation. To avoid the collapse of diplomacy, the United Nations, together with the U.S. and Russia, should broaden the Geneva process by initiating parallel regional talks. This “outside in” strategy would focus on the twin goals of de-escalation and humanitarian relief. The talks would include regional actors, especially Saudi Arabia and Iran, and would focus on building regional consensus around shared issues of concern. These talks would establish three working groups to address mounting sectarian tensions, the provision of unfettered humanitarian access and the need to raise significant resources for humanitarian assistance.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Syrian War, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

102. The Governorate of Homs: is this the Islamic State’s new fiefdom?

Author:
Romain Caillet
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
Now considered by many experts as the primary terrorist threat, the Islamic State (IS), formerly known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has been able to assert its dominance over wide areas of Iraq and Syria. In Syria IS dominance can be seen in the regions of the Euphrates Valley (Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor and Hasaka) and in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. Apart from these areas, the Province of Homs represents a particularly interesting case study, because of the fact that the IS is expanding there, but has been unable to establish its authority over all rebel forces. This study was conducted using data available over the Internet, including websites, social networks (Facebook and Twitter), and online video-sharing platforms. This information was later extended through interviews with university figures, European humanitarian workers and field actors, including sympathisers and sometimes even assumed IS members.
Topic:
Terrorism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Homs

103. The U.S.-led campaign against the Islamic State: many questions, few answers

Author:
Yossi Alpher
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The U.S. commitment to "ultimately destroy" the Islamic State implies an extended military commitment in a highly complex Middle East environment. By looking at the strategic issues that emerge from this dynamic, we can hope better to understand impending developments. These issues centre on the motive behind the U.S. decision to enter the conflict; the U.S. relationship with its European and regional partners and, by contrast, with other major actors in the region like Iran, Syria, Turkey and Egypt; the options for the Islamic State’s response; and issues of U.S. strategy and grand strategy regarding the Islamic world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and United States of America

104. A fragile cold peace: the impact of the Syrian conflict on Israeli-Syrian relations

Author:
Cathrine Thorleifsson
Publication Date:
12-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The unfolding Syrian crisis is threatening to end 40 years of cold peace between Syria and Israel. Exchanges of fire between Israeli and Syrian troops, coupled with fear of a new Islamist front, have led Israel to strengthen its military presence in the Golan Heights. Syria’s alliance with Iran and Hizbullah and Israel’s unilateral attacks on military facilities inside Syria have heightened tensions between the two countries. Through their actions and mutual politics of fear Israel and Syria are moving out of a cold peace situation. However, the pressured Syrian regime and its allies are too occupied by the civil war to open a new front. For Israel, a prolonged conflict in Syria could be advantageous because it will weaken its enemies and provide time to forge new strategic alliances with Sunni Arab states.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Syrian War, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Golan Heights