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92. What Happened to Israel’s Policy of Ambiguity vis-à-vis Syria?
- Author:
- Shmuel Even
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- In March 2018, with the approval of the military censor, Israel officially assumed responsibility for destroying the Syrian nuclear reactor on September 6, 2007, in an operation against what was considered an emerging existential threat. Before the public announcement, senior Israeli officials confirmed that for several years, the IDF has attacked strategic weapons in Syria meant for Hezbollah that were considered as posing an intolerable danger to Israel. These official statements have put an end to Israel’s long-standing policy of ambiguity about a series of aerial strikes on Syrian territory.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Weapons, Hezbollah, Air Force, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
93. The Potential for a War on the Northern Front that None of the Parties Want: Insights from a War Game
- Author:
- Udi Dekel, Assaf Orion, Anat Ben Haim, and Zvi Magen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- If Israel is in fact responsible for the April 29, 2018 attack in Syria, it is sending the message that it is determined and ready to fight a campaign to prevent Iran from consolidating its position in the northern arena, and that it will act to thwart the Iranian response. A war game conducted recently at INSS intended to clarify the boundaries of the ongoing campaign on the northern front and possible developments toward escalation between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Another goal was to consider a fundamental strategic question: is the northern arena truly one unit with two fronts – Syria and Lebanon, or is it two separate fronts operating according to different logics and reflecting distinct interests. Each of the involved actors – Israel, Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Russia, and the United States – has a shared interest in preventing escalation that could lead to war. However, escalation has a dynamic of its own, and incidental elements – unintentional outcomes along with miscalculation – have a significant influence on events and developments. The most significant challenge for Israeli policy is how to resolve its goals vis-à-vis Iran. Thus the time has come for Israel to relinquish the comfort of its position of ambiguity on Syria; to understand that as far as it is concerned, the Assad regime is the least of all evils; and to strive to drive a wedge between Assad and Iran, and between Russia and Iran.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Military Strategy, Armed Conflict, and War Games
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
94. Generating new employment opportunities in Yemen
- Author:
- Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Decades of political instability and cyclical armed conflict have curtailed Yemen’s economic growth, job creation and labor productivity. Before the current conflict, much of the country’s working population was engaged in unskilled labor, working in rural agriculture or informally employed in small businesses. More recently, the ongoing conflict has destroyed normal commerce and left millions of Yemenis without a means of supporting themselves or their families. Even those not directly affected by the fighting now face brutal economic hardship. The economic crisis has become the primary driver of what the United Nations has called the world’s largest humanitarian catastrophe. In the midst of this crisis, the need for job creation is paramount. As part of the “Rethinking Yemen’s Economy” initiative, 22 of Yemen’s leading socioeconomic experts convened in Amman, Jordan on July 14–16, 2018 for the third Development Champions Forum. Sharing a collective sense of urgency to address Yemen’s worsening economic and humanitarian crises, the Champions discussed job creation in Yemen and developed potential strategies to combat increasing levels of unemployment and economic hardship. This policy brief presents the outcome of their discussions. The Development Champions recommend that policy makers seek to create jobs immediately by investing in sectors that have historically been neglected in favor of oil and gas activities. This includes investing in agriculture, developing the fishing industry, expanding mining operations, and linking reconstruction efforts to the local construction sector. In the medium term, policy makers should look to new initiatives, such as constructing a free zone on the Yemen-Saudi border. By providing these livelihood opportunities in the immediate and medium term, policy makers will also help limit the number of Yemenis who feel forced to join an armed party to conflict because of economic necessity.
- Topic:
- Development, Employment, Economic Growth, Armed Conflict, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
95. Is the Worst Yet to Come? Ongoing Mass Atrocity Risks in Syria
- Author:
- Naomi Kikoler and Janelle Roberts
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
- Abstract:
- The Syrian crisis is not coming to a definitive end. Rather, it is entering a new phase in which civilians will face heightened risks of mass atrocities as the government intensifies its perpetration of atrocity crimes against Syrian civilians living in areas held by the armed opposition, in particular the besieged area of Eastern Ghouta and Idlib province. Furthermore, new scenarios of risks outside of these areas may develop as dynamics on the ground change. These new dynamics will pose risks to civilians for years to come. After seven years of assaults and more than 470,000 Syrians killed,1 an estimated 6.1 million Syrians internally displaced, and 5.5 million having fled the country,2 it is hard to imagine that conditions could worsen for civilians, but indicators point in that direction.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Risk, Civilians, Atrocities, Armed Conflict, and Siege
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
96. The plight of Palestinian refugees in Syria in the camps south of Damascus
- Author:
- Metwaly Abo Naser
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- After they took refuge in Syria after the 1948 war, Palestinians refugees were treated in the same way as other Syrian citizens. Permitted to fully participate in the economic and social life of Syrian society, they had the same civic and economic rights and duties as Syrians, except that they could neither be nominated for political office nor participate in elections. This helped them to feel that they were part of Syrian society, despite their refugee status and active role in the global Palestinian liberation struggle against the Israeli occupation of their homeland. At the start of the anti-government movement in Syria, when the peaceful uprising against the Assad regime turned into an armed conflict, the inhabitants of most Palestinian refugee camps tried to remain neutral. But as the conflict grew more violent and regional alliances changed, the disparities and significant differences between the Palestinian factions, especially between Hamas and Fatah, led to divisions in their positions vis-à-vis the Assad regime. These divisions were enhanced by the reduction of the role of the Palestinian diaspora in the struggle against the Israeli occupation and the new relevance of the geographic location of Palestinian refugee camps in the growing Syrian conflict. This was particularly true for the camps south of Damascus, because they separated the area west of Damascus from East Ghouta, both of which were opposition strongholds. These divisions resulted in the camps becoming targets in the armed conflict, leading to their bombardment and blockade, and the displacement of many of their residents to Lebanon, Turkey, Europe, and other locations both inside and outside Syria.
- Topic:
- Refugee Issues, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria
97. Insight on Syria: Documenting the "Burden of War" on Syrians
- Author:
- Michelle Nicholasen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The war in Syria is remarkable in its cumulative destruction of a society in a short six years. The toll on human life has been heavy; the involvement of multiple states, factions, and terrorist groups undermines resolution; the instigation of forced migration unprecedented; and the unfettered aerial bombardments against civilians—and perhaps most viciously, the deliberate destruction and targeting of health care facilities, health care workers, and patients—have defied all norms of war. Achieving an accurate picture of the human cost of this conflict has been an extraordinary challenge for aid agencies and health officials. In an effort to understand the impact of the war thus far, last winter the British medical journal the Lancet convened a commission of medical professionals to investigate and report on this conflict through the lens of public health. In Lancet parlance, a commission is always anchored at an elite university; in this case the American University of Beirut (AUB). In an early publication to set the stage, The Lancet-AUB Commission on Syria (the Commission) has called Syria “the most dangerous place on earth for health care providers,” and notes that the many reported atrocities “undermine the principles and practice of medical neutrality in armed conflict.” One of the three co-chairs leading the Commission is Weatherhead Center Faculty Associate Jennifer Leaning, François-Xavier Bagnoud Professor of the Practice of Health and Human Rights at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who has studied war and its long-term effects on societies in many parts of the world, including in the Middle East. Her fellow Commission co-chairs are Professor Iman Nuwayhid, Dean of the Faculty of Health Sciences at AUB, and Dr. Samer Jabbour, a cardiologist on the AUB faculty. The Weatherhead Center sat down with Jennifer Leaning to discuss the Commission’s work, its goals, and the scope of the devastation in Syria.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Displacement, Civilians, Public Health, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
98. External Actors in the Syrian Civil War. Clash of Interests and Strategies / Los actores externos en la guerra civil siria. Choque de intereses y estrategias
- Author:
- José Luis Calvo Albero
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
- Institution:
- International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
- Abstract:
- The civil war in Syria has become a classic example of proxy war, in which different regional and global powers defend their interests through third parties. That explains its long duration and the high level of violence without reaching exhaustion. This article describes the motivations of the different external actors in the conflict and the strategic lines they follow to achieve their objectives.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Proxy War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
99. How Do Rebels Rule When They Win?
- Author:
- Kai M. Thaler
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Centerpiece
- Institution:
- Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- It is rare in recent years when a civil war has not grabbed global headlines—be it the ongoing civil wars and international interventions in Syria and Yemen, the fragile peace process to end Colombia’s half-century-long war, or the secession and collapse into violence of South Sudan, to name a few. This increase in media coverage reflects a growing number of civil wars around the world: since World War II, civil wars have surpassed interstate wars as the most prominent form of large-scale violent conflict. Most civil wars end in a government victory or negotiated settlement, but between one-fifth and one-third—depending on the definitions used—end in rebel victory with the capture of the central state or secession.1 Significant scholarly attention has focused on when, why, or how a rebel group takes power; we have little comparative evidence about the downstream effects of rebel victory. What state structures do victorious rebels abolish, modify, or create? How do they decide on policy priorities? What explains variation in the strength and scope of the states they build?
- Topic:
- Civil War, State Formation, Violence, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
100. When the ‘desperates’ become ‘enraged’: an ethnographic study of Syrian Mudjahidin (2012-2014) | Quand les « malheureux » deviennent des « enragés » : ethnographie de moudjahidines syriens (2012-2014)
- Author:
- Romain Huët
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Institution:
- Cultures & Conflits
- Abstract:
- This article presents the findings of a sixty-days ethnographic research in a group of Free Syrian Army’s fighters in Aleppo and its region (July 2012, January 2013) and in a group of Mujahedeen affiliated with the Islamic Front in the Hama region (May 2014, September 2014). Literally embedded in these brigades, our research allowed us to describe "the ordinary life" of these combatants who were engaged into the battle for more than three years. Adopting ethnographical tools (interviews, observations), this article discusses how fighters explain the legitimacy of their engagement and the processes of radicalization.
- Topic:
- Sociology, Arab Spring, Ethnography, Armed Conflict, and Free Syrian Army
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria