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221. Mending fences: Europe’s stake in the Saudi-Iran detente

Author:
Julien Barnes-Dacey and Cinzia Bianco
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Saudi-Iran rivalry has long deepened conflict lines in the Middle East. But growing mutual vulnerabilities prompted a quiet rapprochement, culminating in the 2023 Beijing de-escalation agreement. While it hasn’t led to conflict resolution, this detente has helped contain regional escalation. Dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran remains frequent amid the Gaza crisis and could become even more important after the Israeli killing of Hizbullah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Europeans should actively support Saudi-Iran engagement as a vital diplomatic path to regional stability, rather than viewing it as Iran’s attempt to evade US sanctions. If Iran’s new leadership is willing to engage in negotiations on the nuclear issue and other files, Europeans should see Saudi Arabia as a channel to help facilitate necessary economic relief to Iran as part of any new deal. Europeans could help both countries navigate tension around America’s regional involvement, ensuring Saudi-Israel normalisation does not undermine Saudi-Iran diplomacy. If Iran refuses to enter negotiations and relations with the West deteriorate further, Europeans should still consider Saudi Arabia as a valuable mediator between the West and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Rapprochement, Rivalry, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

222. Proxy battles: Iraq, Iran, and the turmoil in the Middle East

Author:
Hamzeh Hadad
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza has deepened the Middle East’s fault lines. Iran and its proxies and the US and Israel have engaged in a cycle of tit-for-tat attacks across the region, with the Israeli bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria and Iran’s direct retaliation against Israel threatening to escalate into a regional war. Iraqi paramilitaries operating as part of Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ have also attacked US forces in Iraq, who responded with reprisals of their own. This, and the increasing risk of a wider war, imperils the relative stability Iraq has enjoyed over the past few years and the country’s fledgling role as a regional mediator. Iran’s influence in Iraq increased following the US invasion of 2003 and the fall of Saddam Hussein – but their relationship is far from being a simple agent-proxy arrangement. Iran’s strongest influence is through its paramilitaries’ presence in Iraq’s security apparatus, but Iraq has also exhibited some political independence from its neighbour and maintains financial leverage over Iran. Europeans can help increase Iraq’s autonomy. In the economic sector, they should strengthen its financial institutions through global integration and digitisation. European countries can also work alongside Gulf states to broaden their ties with Iraq, including in foreign investment and a shift from a development or humanitarian aid framework towards normal bilateral ties. However, for any European policy to be successful in Iraq, it must be designed within a broader framework of ending the war in Gaza and resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict – without which the dangerous escalation across the Middle East may continue.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Political stability, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

223. The infinite connection: How to make the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor happen

Author:
Alberto Rizzi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The war in Gaza and its fallout have stalled plans for the India-Middle East-Europe economic corridor, or IMEC. But this grand US-led connectivity project to link the EU and India via the Gulf can still happen – and it can serve the geopolitical goals of all its participants. With IMEC, the US and the EU aim to draw India closer and counter Chinese influence. The corridor would provide a boost to India’s strategy to escape encirclement by Beijing and become a leader among developing countries. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, embrace IMEC as part of their push to become an economic bridge between East and West. For the corridor to fulfil its potential, the participants will need to coalesce around implementation plans that can reconcile these different goals. They will also need to overcome internal and external obstacles along each leg of the corridor. Europeans should view IMEC as providing a long-term addition to current trade routes. They should also press for the corridor to expand into a network, promote trade liberalisation with India, and support all the participants as they transition to renewable energy. If they are successful, IMEC could enhance Europe’s economic resilience and increase its options for trade diversification. The links IMEC could help forge among this range of powers may in fact constitute IMEC’s greatest prize, with the corridor helping to prevent fragmentation reaching extreme levels.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, India, and Gulf Nations

224. Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed

Author:
Henry Sokolski
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
With the continued fighting in Gaza, a nuclear rubicon of sorts has been crossed: Elected Israeli officials — a deputy minister and a ruling party member of Parliament—not only have publicly referenced Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, but suggested how such weapons might be used to target Gaza. This is unprecedented. More recently, Iran directly attacked an Israeli-manned intelligence outpost in Iraq and publicized a staged missile strike against a mock Israeli air base. Iran also has inched within weeks of making several nuclear weapons and made its military ever more immune to first strikes against its key missile and nuclear facilities. Iran and its proxies also now have long-range, high-precision missiles that can easily reach key Israeli targets. None of these developments is positive. For decades, most security analysts assumed Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons were only deployed to deter attacks and that Iran would not dare to attack Israel directly. The attached war game report, “Gaming Israeli Nuclear Use: Pandora Unleashed,” directly challenges these assumptions. The game starts in 2027 with Israeli intelligence reporting that Iran is mating nuclear warheads to its long-range missiles. This prompts Israel to ask Washington to collaborate in a conventional military strike against key Iranian nuclear facilities and missile bases. Not wanting to be drawn into a major war with Iran, the United States, however, demurs and instead offers Israel U.S. standoff hypersonic missiles. Several moves later, Israel, isolated and desperate, launches two nuclear strikes against Iran to which Iran replies with a nuclear strike of its own. The game raised several basic questions. Would Israel or Iran conduct further military nuclear operations? Might Israel target Tehran with nuclear weapons? Might Iran target Tel Aviv with nuclear arms? Would Russia or the United States be drawn into the war? These and other unknowns informed the game’s key findings. These included: 1. The strategic uncertainties generated after an Israeli-Iranian nuclear exchange are likely to be at least as fraught as any that might arise before such a clash. 2. Although Israel and Iran might initially avoid the nuclear targeting of innocents, such self-restraint is tenuous. 3. Multilateral support for Israeli security may be essential to deter Israeli nuclear use but will likely hinge on Israeli willingness to discuss regional denuclearization. 4. Little progress is likely in reducing Middle Eastern nuclear threats if the United States continues its public policy of denying knowledge of Israeli nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Weapons, Nonproliferation, and War Games
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

225. Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion

Author:
Nurhayat Kavrak
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Turkey’s political history has seen recurring shifts between democratic ideals and authoritarian tendencies, notably during the two decades of the Justice and Development Party’s (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi, AKP) rule. This transition marked a departure from a relatively democratic façade that emerged in response to the European Union (EU) accession process towards a more authoritarian regime characterized by increased government control and curtailment of civil liberties.1 It is a shift accentuated after the 2013 Gezi protests which culminated in a significant regime change in 2018. This transformation was marked by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s consolidation of power through constitutional amendments, leading to the transition from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system. To comprehend this transformation, it is imperative to examine the interplay between economic dynamics and the state within the neo-liberal capitalist system, aligning with Poulantzas’ observations on global trends.2 It can be argued that the accumulation and state crises, exacerbated by the 2008 global economic crisis, have contributed to Turkey’s authoritarian shift in parallel with global developments. Originating from a 2018 workshop at Middle East Technical University, Turkey’s New State in the Making: Transformations in Legality, Economy, and Coercion provides a historical-sociological perspective on Turkey’s state crises, serving as a vital resource for comprehending authoritarianism and class-state relations and offering an in-depth exploration of the AKP regime’s transformation, presenting a continuum of its history rather than a rigid division between democratic and authoritarian phases.
Topic:
International Relations, History, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Economy, Book Review, AKP, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

226. Financial Turmoil, Uncertainty, and Institutions: Turkey’s Political Economy in Crises

Author:
Serhan Yalçiner
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Financial turmoil damages national and global economies, but the causes of financial crises vary, with a combination of financial and political factors creating them. By asserting that every financial crisis necessarily involves political aspects, this study aims to certify that the poor policy response of Turkey, which has relied heavily on a “president over institutions” approach, has contributed to the ongoing severe currency and debt crises. Focusing on the two predominantly domestically induced crises of 2001 and 2018, this article analyzes secondary literature and data to put forth a framework that combines the fiscal policy response with a look at the country’s institutional strength and shows how financial uncertainty and instability exacerbated the conditions of the ongoing 2018 crisis. The study also finds that deteriorating political institutions in Turkey, marked by a lack of governmental efficacy that has led to compromised financial and fiscal sustainability, has played a considerable role in the onset of the 2018 crisis.
Topic:
Political Economy, Financial Crisis, Authoritarianism, Institutions, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

227. Iran-Russia Defense Cooperation: Current Realities and Future Horizons

Author:
Hanna Notte and Jim Lamson
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
Key Takeaways: (1) Big leap forward. Against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the Iran-Russia defense relationship has moved past the previous client-patron dynamic, with Iran emerging as an important provider of defense technology to Russia. Bilateral cooperation has expanded both in degree and in kind. In pre-existing areas of cooperation—such as electronic warfare, space, cyberspace, and military-to-military contacts—engagement has accelerated or deepened. Since 2022, Iran and Russia have also cooperated in entirely new areas. Those have included Iran’s provision of uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), UAV production technology, and UAV training to Russia, alongside Iran’s multifaceted support for Russia’s ground war and assistance with expertise on evading sanctions. (2) The gloves are off. Since February 2022, what were historically key drivers of defense cooperation—a shared animosity toward the United States and the international order it promotes (including in the Middle East), and each side’s interest in military technology that the other side can offer—have increased in importance. Key constraints—Russia’s susceptibility to U.S. or Western pressure, causing it to limit cooperation with Iran; Russian concerns with adhering to nonproliferation norms and export control regimes; Russian reputational concerns over collaborating with Iran; Iran’s inability to pay for Russian technology; or historical mistrust—have become less relevant with Moscow’s growing dependence on Iran and its increased enmity toward the United States and Europe. (3) Growing institutionalization. Amid a general increase in numbers of mutual visits and high-level engagements among military and defense officials, Iran and Russia have taken steps to further institutionalize their defense relationship. Those have included work on a new strategic cooperation agreement to replace the one from 2001, forays into joint production of some weapon systems, and joint efforts to develop the International North-South Transport Corridor and other infrastructure that should provide a further boost to defense cooperation. (4) Thinking about the future in three steps. We propose a three-step methodology to think through the contours of bilateral defense cooperation over the next three to five years. It involves a) extrapolating from current trend lines, drivers, and constraints; b) drawing up inventories of future military needs for each country and identifying the areas in which the other country could help meet those needs; and c) accounting for potential high-impact scenarios and developments that may trigger dramatic shifts in cooperation. The latter include various scenarios of war in the Middle East, the end of Russia’s military campaign against Ukraine, and regime change in either Russia or Iran. (5) Neither a transactional relationship nor a military alliance. Present trend lines and drivers suggest that the relationship is no longer purely transactional and will probably not lapse back into the patron-client dynamic that characterized it prior to 2022, even once the war in Ukraine ends. Iran and Russia each have specific military-technical needs that the other might help meet. That said, beyond Russia’s campaign against Ukraine, Iranian needs from Russia will be greater than Russian needs for advanced technology from Iran. Other constraints—chiefly both countries’ challenges in procuring advanced components because of sanctions, Russia’s aversion to antagonizing the Gulf Arab states, and Russia’s enduring technological superiority in key areas—will also likely continue to act as brakes on the defense relationship, precluding it from developing into a full-fledged military alliance.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Nonproliferation, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, and Middle East

228. Perakende Sektöründe Denkleştirme Uygulaması ve Çalışan Tercihleri Açısından İncelenmesi

Author:
Müge Leyla Yıldız
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Bu çalışma, Türk İş Hukuku’nda denkleştirme kavramına ve uygulanma sürecine odaklanmaktadır. Denkleştirme uygulaması, işverenlerin çalışanları haftalık çalışma süresinin üzerinde çalıştıklarında bu fazla çalışma sürelerini sonraki haftalarda eksik çalışma olarak kullandırabilecekleri bir sistemdir. Bu sistem, işin yoğun olduğu dönemlerde çalışanların fazla çalışmalarının karşılığında ücret ve dinlenme sürelerinin dengelenmesini sağlamaktadır. Çalışan perspektifinden ele alındığında, bu sistem onlara fazla çalışma sürelerini dinlenme süresi olarak kullanma fırsatı sunar ve günümüzde esnek çalışma modeli olarak da kullanılmaktadır. Ayrıca çalışanların kendilerine dinlenme süreleri ve çalışma sürelerini dengeleme şansı vermektedir. Çalışmada, denkleştirme sürelerinin perakende sektöründeki uygulama örneklerine yer verilmiş, Türkiye’deki ve Avrupa’daki hukuki boyutu incelenmiş ve uygulama çalışanlar açısından değerlendirilmiştir. Denkleştirme uygulaması hem hukuki açıdan hem de insan kaynakları yönetimi açısından değerlendirildiğinde çeşitli avantaj ve dezavantajlar barındırmaktadır. Literatür tartışmalarının ardından 92 perakende mağazası yöneticisiyle yapılan panel toplantısı sonrasında, perakende sektöründe denkleştirme uygulamasıyla çalışan 18 satış temsilcisi ile mülakatlar yapılmıştır. Araştırmanın sonucunda, uygulamada denkleştirilemeyen süreler, denkleştirme sürelerinin takip zorluğu, iş sağlığı ve güvenliği açısından oluşan riskler, resmî tatillerde denkleştirmeyi uygulama güçlüğü, fazla çalışma karşılığında çalışana ücretinin ödenmemesi gibi sorunlara öneriler üretilmiştir. Ayrıca denkleştirme politikalarının daha etkili hale getirilmesi için çalışan ve yöneticilere yönelik eğitimlerin verilmesi sürecin şeffaf bir şekilde sürdürülmesi gerektiği vurgulanmıştır.
Topic:
Human Resources, Retail, Labor Law, equalization, and Employees
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

229. Kök Ailenin Evlilikte Partner Seçimine Etkisi

Author:
Isik Özel, Ilayda Dikmen, and Hacı Tuğberk Yılmaz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
Institution:
Altinbas University
Abstract:
Kök aile, hayatımız boyunca yaşantımızı, davranışlarımızı, yönelimlerimizi ve birçok tercihimizi etkileyen temel unsurlardan biridir. Partner seçiminin de kök aileden etkilenen önemli alanlardan biri olduğu düşünülmektedir. Bu açıdan, partner seçiminde ağırlıklı olarak ele alınan karşı tarafı çekici bulma, erişilebilirlik ve beğeni/karşılık görme faktörlerinin dışında, kök ailenin etkisinin de ele alınması, yapılan seçimin doğasına dair daha detaylı sonuçlar elde etmek açısından oldukça önemlidir. Bu fikir ve bulgulardan hareketle Türk kültüründeki aile yapısının farklı boyutlarının, bireylerin partnerlerini seçerken hangi alanlarda etkileri olabileceği araştırma sorusunu oluşturmaktadır. Araştırma, iki farklı ölçeğe dayalı anket soruları kullanılarak 18-64 yaş aralığındaki 306 katılımcıyla gerçekleştirilmiş; sonuçlar ağırlıklı olarak regresyon ve korelasyon analizleriyle elde edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda, Türk aile yapısının işlevselliği ile partner seçimindeki kısıtlayıcı inançlar arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki gözlemlenmiştir. Türk aile yapısı, aile içi güç dengesi ve sosyal algılar, evlilik için aşkın yeterli olduğu inancını ve zıt partnerlere çekilme eğilimini etkilemektedir. Türk aile yapısının modern kalıplarda gelişmesinin, tek doğru partner ve bu partneri bulmanın doğal bir süreç olduğuna dair inanca negatif yönde etkisi mevcuttur. Evlilik öncesi birlikte yaşama düşüncesi, dini ve kültürel değerler nedeniyle ön planda değildir. Ancak, dini değerlere verilen önemin artması partner seçimi için aşkın yeterli olduğu düşüncesini desteklemektedir. Sonuç olarak, incelenen alt boyutlar arasında pozitif ve negatif yönde anlamlı ilişkiler saptanmış, Türk kültürü çerçevesinde kök ailenin partner seçimi üzerindeki etkisi vurgulanmıştır. Araştırmanın bulguları, ilgili literatür kapsamında ele alınarak tartışılmıştır.
Topic:
Culture, Family, Marriage, and Mate Selection
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

230. Prospects for EU-Türkiye Foreign Policy Cooperation at a Time of Geopolitical Turbulence

Author:
Ian Lesser, Kadri Tastan, Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı, and Paul T. Levin
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Over more than six decades, the relationship between Türkiye and the EU has undergone a profound transformation. Just 20 years ago, Türkiye had real aspirations to join the EU. Today, that prospect is a distant memory, and political relations between the two parties are at an all-time low. Despite the prevailing challenges and areas of divergent interests, Türkiye-EU relations continue to exert a significant influence on domestic and foreign policies across much of Europe, particularly with regard to trade, border management, and migration. While the United States may view ties with Türkiye as discretionary at times, for both Türkiye and the EU, engagement remains unavoidable. Furthermore, against a backdrop of geopolitical turmoil and regional instability, the imperative for robust dialogue and collaboration between the EU and Türkiye has never been more pressing. With Türkiye‘s accession process stalled and geopolitical tensions on the rise, the need to reinvigorate and strengthen diplomatic ties has become increasingly evident. From the enduring conflicts in Syria and Iraq to the evolving dynamics surrounding Russia‘s aggression towards Ukraine, the prevailing geopolitical context necessitates a coordinated approach between the two parties. This political report examines the potential for collaboration between Türkiye and the EU, defining the essential preconditions for such cooperation and elucidating its mutual benefits. It also assesses the obstacles that stand in the way of such cooperation and proposes a framework for foreign policy dialogue between Türkiye and the EU, incorporating the views of Türkiye, the EU, and the United States.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East