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1391. Judgement Day for ISIL and What It Would Mean for Canada

Author:
Dave Murray
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Security and Development, Dalhousie University
Abstract:
Despite the carnage wrought by ISIL around the world, the days appear numbered for its caliphate in Syria and Iraq. We are likely talking the shorter to medium term at most. ISIL faces intense military pressure on all fronts. It continues to lose territory and its leadership figures are being targeted and killed. Increasingly ISIL faces significant challenges in replenishing its losses due to efforts by Turkey and most nations internationally to block the flow of foreign fighters into the caliphate. As leadership figures are eliminated, internal factionalism will create serious stresses and vulnerabilities. The forces aligned against ISIL are powerful, despite conflicting agendas. Add to this reports of financial problems, including a strained ability to pay its militants, and the result is a picture of an entity on a downward trajectory. This in no way means that the caliphate or its extremist message will die easily or that we are nearing an end to the scourge of ISIL inspired terrorism – only that its ability to sustain itself territorially has limits. If one accepts the above assessment, now is the time to consider what this will mean. Now is the time for thinking and planning directed at dealing with the eventual collapse of a self-proclaimed state in which countless thousands have been radicalized, traumatized, received military and terrorists training, let alone the reality of child soldiers and intense psychological scarring caused by ISIL.
Topic:
Terrorism, Radicalization, Islamic State, Conflict, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Canada, Syria, and United States of America

1392. Iran’s Resurgence as Power after International Sanctions Relief / El resurgimiento de Irán como potencia tras el levantamiento de las sanciones internacionales

Author:
José Ignacio Castro
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
Nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 Group become a reality at the beginning of 2016, with the Iranian engagement on declaration and reduction of her nuclear capabilities, for a temporary period. Parallel to the agreement accomplishment, Iran has increased her power towards her geopolitical enlargement area in the Mesopotamia and Levant region. Iran´s resurgence has caused a conventional weapons´ proliferation, where ballistic missiles are the main stress´s source. At international level, Iran has achieved better business opportunities, although her economic evolution is still slow, mainly due internal power´s dynamics. At global order level, the agreement has brought main actors power´s redesign in Middle East and other global areas. Inside Iran, the agreement has reinforced institutional authority and at the same time it is opening up the way for hope and for a better future for the Iranian people.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

1393. External Actors in the Syrian Civil War. Clash of Interests and Strategies / Los actores externos en la guerra civil siria. Choque de intereses y estrategias

Author:
José Luis Calvo Albero
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The civil war in Syria has become a classic example of proxy war, in which different regional and global powers defend their interests through third parties. That explains its long duration and the high level of violence without reaching exhaustion. This article describes the motivations of the different external actors in the conflict and the strategic lines they follow to achieve their objectives.
Topic:
Syrian War, Proxy War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

1394. Towards a Continental Strategy for Countering Violent Extremism in Africa

Author:
Tarek A. Sharif and Joanne Richards
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
Violent Extremism is now recognized as a growing threat to peace and security in Africa, as exemplified by the recent terrorist attacks in Garissa, Abidjan, and Ouagadougou. While much of the policy discussion on Countering Violent Extremism (CVE) focuses on the return of radicalized foreign fighters to the West, less attention is directed to those foreign fighters who may eventually return from Iraq, Syria, and Libya to other areas of North Africa, the Maghreb, and the Horn of Africa. Tunisia is one of the world’s largest contributors to the Islamic State in terms of foreign fighters, with smaller contributions from Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Sudan and Somalia. Issues concerning the return of foreign fighters to Africa are particularly salient not only because these individuals may return to their communities, but also because they may link up with other extremist armed groups present across the continent. These include groups affiliated to either al-Qaeda or the Islamic State, such as Boko Haram, al-Shabaab, and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Attempts to counter violent extremism began in Europe in the 1980s with the advent of programs to dissuade and disengage right-wing extremists in Norway, Sweden and Germany. Although no common definition exists, since that time CVE has come to be associated with a range of measures designed to prevent and reverse the radicalization of individuals and groups, and to forestall the participation of these groups and “lone wolves” in acts of terrorism. Given that CVE is preventative and reactive, different CVE strategies are necessary for different stages of the radicalization continuum, including for individuals and communities with no exposure to extremist networks, those with some exposure, and those already radicalized. The latter is often associated with attempts to shift extremists towards acceptance of more moderate ideologies and is known as “deradicalization.” In some ways, CVE is difficult to distinguish from conventional counter-terrorism, which often includes traditional military measures and the sharing of intelligence between nation states. However, because conventional counter-terrorism does not address the root causes prompting radicalization, policy interventions under the rubric of CVE have more recently been designed to focus attention on the grassroots factors, which may render certain individuals more susceptible to radicalization than others. Social exclusion, poverty, and a lack of education are often named as typical contenders in this regard, although CVE practitioners generally acknowledge that no single causal pathway to radicalization can be identified. Reflecting these general trends, this essay charts the development of African Union policy, from its roots in conventional counter-terrorism, to efforts to devise a continental strategy for CVE in Africa. It also outlines a number of policy measures, which any such continental strategy should take into account.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Iraq, Sudan, Middle East, Libya, Syria, Morocco, and Somalia

1395. The Arab Spring, Dominoes, and Turkey

Author:
Goktug Sonmez
Publication Date:
12-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Bilgi
Institution:
Değişim Yayınları
Abstract:
In an era of unexpected shifts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and the challenges stemmed from these shifting dynamics, the question is whether the new socio-political atmosphere is sustainable in the medium to long-run in spite of politically questionable achievements? In order to address this question, some historical insight along with an elaboration on the concept of “domino theory” could be of some use. Did the “domino effect” of the Arab Spring work in the opposite direction and a “reverse domino effect” turn the picture upside down with authoritarian rulers acquiring power once and for all and eliminating oppositional groups as it is seen from several cases already? From Lenin to Eisenhower, the analogy of “dominoes” and their “fall”, referring to the potential chain reaction following a major political and/or military action / development, found their place in policymaking, and indeed, continued to do so even though direct reference to those terms became less and less popular. However, historical experience implies that despite the popularity of these concepts, dominoes might not fall one after another. Rather, the “next dominoes” can strengthen their position in order to avoid the fate of the last one. Either those regimes would face an irresistible wave of “reverse domino effect” or the fall of some “dominoes” would even help them act more cautiously in order to consolidate what they achieved, one thing is clear; Turkey has the potential and intention to be one of the key players to have an influence over the future and sustainability of the “tectonic shift” we witnessed, better known as “the Arab Spring”. At the same time, unsurprisingly, Turkey is also one of the countries that has been and will be affected by its possible U-turn, too.
Topic:
Social Movement, Popular Revolt, Democracy, and Arab Spring
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Syria

1396. From Disgrace to Indignation: Small Struggles, Daily Resistances, and Attempts to Mobilize by Waste Collectors in Istanbul | De l’indignité à l’indignation : petites luttes, résistances quotidiennes et tentatives de mobilisation des récupérateurs de déchets à Istanbul

Author:
Bénédicte Florin
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Cultures & Conflits
Institution:
Cultures & Conflits
Abstract:
This paper is based on interviews held with Istanbul waste collectors who cross the city to collect recyclable waste. Bound in some sense to garbage, these waste collectors are cast to the edges of the city and to the margins of society. Their working and living spaces are both degraded and threatened by encroaching urban renovation projects and real-estate developments; associated waste-management reforms do not recognize the work of waste collectors as legitimate and therefore exclude these “poor”, “dirty, and “archaic” waste collectors. Through an analysis of small and discrete practices of resistance of waste collectors, namely by continuing to collect waste despite its illegal status as well as through mobilization efforts to become organized as “waste workers”, this article argues that far from being passive, these waste collectors resist against exclusion and elaborate a justificatory discourse to defend their role in society.
Topic:
Class, Sanitation, Cities, Waste, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Istanbul

1397. The Syrian Refugee Crisis in Europe

Author:
Rossen Kostadinov Koroutchev
Publication Date:
05-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
The manuscript analyzes the current refugee’s crisis in Europe and the situation of the Syrian refugees in Syria’s neighboring countries such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. The presented comparative analysis between the first instance decisions in asylum policies of several European countries is accompanied by additional statistics of the refugee’s influx. Several suggestions related to the necessary measures to be taken in short and long term in order to ensure more sustainable migration patterns are discussed in detail.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Syrian War, Borders, and Integration
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

1398. The Road to Successful Partnerships

Author:
Bia Vieira and Barbary Cook
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Global Philanthropy Project (GPP)
Abstract:
The purpose of this report is to identify and discuss government funding case studies that yield good practices, lessons learned and opportunities for funding LGBTI groups and movement in the Global South and East. In particular, the report examines various partnership models where governments work with intermediaries to fund and support LGBTI groups on the ground.
Topic:
Government, LGBT+, Philanthropy, and Funding
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, Global Focus, and Global South

1399. How to Bring Stability to Bahrain

Author:
Brian Dooley
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
Washington needs a new strategy to help bring stability and reform to Bahrain. Although the smallest country in the Middle East, Bahrain exemplifies several of the major challenges for U.S. policy in the region: Sectarian tensions exploited by ISIS and other Sunni extremists and by Shi’adominated Iran to fuel conflict Economic troubles linked to public corruption and an over-reliance on oil revenues, exacerbated by sharply falling oil prices Stalled political reform leaving the root grievances of large scale public protests unresolved De facto U.S. support for an authoritarian status quo through a government that fails to deliver good governance and continues to deny basic rights and freedoms to its people, while courting support from Russia and other U.S. rivals Falling public support for the United States Major military assets, in Bahrain’s case the basing of the U.S. Fifth Naval Fleet, threatened by protracted instability
Topic:
Imperialism, Oil, Religion, Military Strategy, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, Middle East, and Bahrain

1400. How to Build a More Sustainable and Mutually Beneficial Relationship with Saudi Arabia

Author:
Human Rights First
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Human Rights First
Abstract:
The United States is not taking Saudi Arabia’s outsized responsibility for human rights abuses within or beyond the kingdom’s borders seriously enough. President Barack Obama did not raise the issue in his meeting last year with the late King Abdullah. On his way to meet the new Saudi monarch, King Salman, in January 2015 the President remarked, “Sometimes we have to balance our need to speak to them about human rights issues with immediate concerns that we have in terms of countering terrorism or dealing with regional stability." He did not mention that Saudi Arabia’s policies (denying rights and freedoms at home while leading a vigorous, region-wide effort to push back against popular calls for better governance) have themselves contributed to regional instability and undermined counterterrorism efforts. Such policies harm U.S. interests and those of the people of Saudi Arabia and the region as a whole.
Topic:
Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Repression
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia