Search

Begin New Search Political Geography Middle East Publication Year within 1 Year

411. Palestine Is One Vote Short in the Security Council from Being Recognised as a State

Author:
Yossi Mekelberg
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The total stalemate in resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict requires new thinking and weaning off of old paradigms. Currently as the result of the Hamas attack on October 7, the ensuring war in Gaza, and the deterioration of security in the occupied West Bank, the relations between the Israelis and the Palestinians are at their worst since 1948 and seem the least conducive to a new a peace process. However, events have demonstrated to the international community that allowing this conflict to fester has had disastrous consequences not only for Israelis and Palestinians, but it has also had far-reaching implications across the region and the rest of the international community. This paper argues that an important step to break the deadlock is recognition of Palestinian statehood by individual countries and by international organizations, in particular the UN Security Council. Such recognition should incentivize both sides to negotiate peace based on a two-state solution, as it would overcome the asymmetry in the negotiations between a recognized state and movement representing its people. It will empower the pragmatic elements in both societies who are invested in peace, and will also send a clear message of sincerity from the international community that a two-state solution is the one it is behind and it will support.
Topic:
Sovereignty, United Nations, State, UN Security Council, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

412. Exaggerations, Obstacles and Opportunities: The Saudi Arabian Position in the Gaza War

Author:
Aziz Alghashian
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The paper aims to shed light on the obstacles and opportunities of Saudi involvement in a future Palestinian-Israeli peace process. It first explains the enigmatic nature of Saudi communication towards Israel and explains why Saudi pragmatism has been misunderstood. The paper also explains the rationale behind Saudi Arabia’s willingness to normalize relations with Israel, and that Saudi-Israeli normalization is treated as a gateway to a larger game-changing strategic treaty with the United States, rather than a keenness to cooperate with Israel itself. In addition, the paper argues that while the Saudi ruling elite are willing to play financial and security roles in “reconstructing” Gaza, it is unforeseeable that this will ensue without a credible peace process that can justify these efforts, especially against the backdrop of Saudi Arabia’s restructuring of its own economy. The paper then explains the ways in which Saudi Arabia, Gulf Arab states, and European states can help cooperate in areas such as building a Palestinian economic horizon that can strengthen the Palestinian-Israeli political framework; developing Palestinian-Israeli green cooperation; and developing an Arab-Israeli network of academics, experts, and journalists that can be an intersection of top-down and bottom-up projects that aim to reach a two-state solution.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Normalization, 2023 Gaza War, and Peace Process
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

413. The Caliphate Complaint Box: Stories of Islamic State Governance in the Words of Those Who Lived It

Author:
Daniel Milton and Muhammad Al-'Ubaydi
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In the summer of 2014, the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State declared itself the governing entity of a vast swath of territory across Iraq and Syria encompassing millions of people, who were now ‘citizens’ of the Islamic State. Although it is well-known that the group’s governance approach carried with it the strict and sometimes violent implementation of their interpretation of Islamic law, there has been comparatively limited evidence regarding the nature of the complaints that arose during this time. This report relies on 396 previously unreleased primary source documents created by both members and civilians of the Islamic State highlighting problems encountered under the group’s governing eye—the Caliphate Complaint Box. These documents provide a vivid first-hand account of the challenges people faced living under the Islamic State. They demonstrate that, despite the group’s propaganda effort to highlight its establishment of a just society with a well-functioning government, the reality on the ground was much different. Given that any single analysis or summary cannot capture all the nuance included in these documents, the Combating Terrorism Center is releasing all of these documents through its website in an effort to promote future research on the Islamic State. However, this report does highlight some of the initial findings from an analysis of the material: The Islamic State faced regular bureaucratic challenges. Despite the promise of being different than other forms of government, the Islamic State struggled to keep track of paperwork and people, at times leading to confusion and disillusionment among those living under its control. Women living in the caliphate faced an uphill battle. Although perhaps not surprising, these documents drive home the inequity faced by women in the caliphate when it came to resolving issues of concern. Several complaints show women having to repeatedly seek help in order to provide for their families after losing husbands. Additionally, the documents contain multiple examples of men in positions of power targeting women with abuse. Citizens suffered raids and harsh treatment by both religious and security-oriented police. The laws of the Islamic State were strict, but these documents show that the execution of justice could be both harsh and uneven. People living in the caliphate might find their children hit during a raid or their vehicle confiscated at a checkpoint without a clear indication as to why or what the resolution would be. The Islamic State military bureaucracy faced challenges in recruiting, equipping, and managing its forces. The Islamic State was a group formed through military conquest. The Complaint Box documents show that, despite these successes against an array of external adversaries, the group’s military wing struggled with issues, including but not limited to the production of military weapons, leadership of training units and battlefield forces, and putting soldiers in the right units and places.
Topic:
Terrorism, Governance, Women, Islamic State, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

414. CTC Sentinel: February 2024 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Sean Morrow, Don Rassler, Kristina Hummel, and Daisy Muibu
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Long-range aerial attacks by the Iran-backed Houthi terrorist group, including a ballistic missile that traveled at least a thousand miles toward Israel before being intercepted (reportedly in space) on October 31, 2023, are focusing minds on long-range stand-off terrorism. In this month’s feature article, which conceptualizes, outlines, and examines the implications of this emerging threat vector, Don Rassler argues that the notion that terrorists could strike the United States across the oceans with unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) is becoming increasingly less far-fetched. Rassler writes that “over the coming decade, hydrogen fuel cell and solar UAS technology will evolve and mature, and will also likely become more available and accessible to the average consumer, which will make longer ranges more accessible as well. Other disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, will also mature and will likely be used by extremists to help them optimize system performance and to overcome, or devise creative solutions to, technical long-range UAS challenges.” He warns that “long-range stand-off terrorism will be attractive to some extremists because it opens-up new attack pathways, can enable surprise, and has the potential to deliver a potent psychological, ‘we can strike you from afar’ punch. Over the next decade advancements in commercial technologies and systems will also make range, and extended range, more accessible for violent non-state-entities, making it likely that in the future long-range terrorism will become even more of a threat.” Rassler’s article is the first in a new recurring series in CTC Sentinel entitled “On the Horizon” that will examine emerging counterterrorism challenges. Our interview is with Christopher Maier, the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict. “We need to have sustainable CT operations that prevent terrorists’ actions, principally al-Qa`ida and ISIS, to ensure we are not distracted by what we view as the longer-term strategic priorities, such as peer adversaries,” he says. “As the rest of the Department and other parts of the U.S. government are doing less CT, [this] means that those who are doing it have to do it better and, in many respects, do it more proportionally to the rest of the national security enterprise. This is why SOF is looked to as the lead for the CT fight in the Department.” Daisy Muibu examines the state of Somalia’s military campaign against al-Shabaab. She writes that: “A year and five months after the Somali government launched its offensive against al-Shabaab, the initial optimism that characterized its first few months have diminished as the counterinsurgency’s momentum has stalled in the central regions of the country.” She adds that “with only a year left until African Union forces are mandated to fully draw down, significant obstacles remain that cast doubts over the government’s ambitious goals to defeat al-Shabaab and assume full responsibility for securing the country by December 31, 2024.”
Topic:
National Security, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Artificial Intelligence, Houthis, and Al-Shabaab
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Somalia, Global Focus, and United States of America

415. April 2024 Issue

Author:
Michael Knights, Sean Morrow, Asher Spain, Kevin Jackson, and Paul D. Williams
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
In this month’s feature article, Michael Knights provides a highly detailed assessment of the six-month Houthi war effort that has seen the Tehran-backed group launch missiles at Israel and attack shipping off the coasts of Yemen. He assesses that: “The Houthis have used the Gaza crisis to vault into the front ranks of the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance,’ arguably as the only axis partner to truly globalize the conflict through their anti-shipping attacks on the approaches to the Suez Canal. The movement has demonstrated boldness—as the first axis member to fire ballistic missiles at Israel—and resilience in the face of U.S.-U.K. airstrikes. The Houthis are likely to emerge from the war as a more confident, ambitious, and aggressive terrorist army, with a taste for provocative and eye-catching acts of defiance against Israel and the United States.” Our interview is with Colonel (Ret.) Miri Eisin, the director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at Reichman University who previously served in a variety of senior intelligence roles in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). She stresses the need to learn lessons from the intelligence failures that preceded the Hamas-led October 7 attack so that Israel is not surprised again, for example with regard to the kind of threat Hezbollah could pose in the coming months. “All of us made wrong assumptions, and the combination of all of them brought about a colossal failure,” she says. “We collectively were wrong about the capability. We were wrong about the intentions. We were wrong about the ferocity.” Kévin Jackson assesses the current state of al-Qa`ida Central. He writes that “while the challenges facing the group are real, it should not be written off, as it has proved time and again more resilient than expected.” He adds that “in the wake of the Gaza war, al-Qa`ida likely feels emboldened by what it perceives as a uniquely auspicious geopolitical context to further its global ambitions.” The African Union is set to withdraw the remainder of its forces from Somalia by December 31, 2024. Paul Williams evaluates whether the Somali National Army (SNA) or al-Shabaab would be stronger militarily if this happens. He writes that “the SNA would retain an advantage in terms of size, material resources, and external support but performs poorly on non-material dimensions and would remain dependent upon external finance and security assistance. Overall, however, al-Shabaab would be slightly militarily stronger because of its significant advantages across the non-material dimensions related to force employment, cohesion, and psychological operations, as well as the sustainability of its forces.”
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Houthis, African Union, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Somalia

416. CTC Sentinel: July/August 2024 Issue

Author:
Devorah Margolin, Gina Vale, Kristina Hummel, Samuel Bowles, and Noah Tucker
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Ten years ago, in August 2014, the Islamic State began its genocidal campaign against the Yazidi community. In our cover article, Devorah Margolin and Gina Vale evaluate how the group’s gendered violence has manifested during and after its caliphate years. “Even without its caliphate,” they write, “the Islamic State’s gendered violence continues, as its supporters and ideology remain. Arguably, the lack of timely and appropriate responses has perpetuated this violence.” Our interview this month is with William Braniff, director of the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships at the Department of Homeland Security. In it, he describes his office’s efforts to utilize a public health-informed approach to preventing targeted violence and terrorism. Edward Lemon and Noah Tucker examine Central Asians’ prominent role in recent global terror plots and attacks. They argue that analysis should focus more on “the factors that led to mobilization to Syria and Iraq a decade ago and that have been exacerbated in recent years, especially in Tajikistan, including crackdowns on religion, corrupt ineffective governance, high levels of migration, and well-established terror networks that are holdovers from the peak of the Islamic State” as a way to understand this evolving threat area. When news reports appeared earlier this summer suggesting that the leader of the Islamic State in Somalia, Abdulqadir Mumin, may have quietly become the “worldwide leader” of the Islamic State last year and may have been killed in a recent U.S. airstrike, the news created far more questions than answers. Austin Doctor and Gina Ligon take a nuanced look at what the developments—if true—could mean for the group. Jessica Davis provides analysis of the Islamic State’s post-caliphate financial strategies. “The future of the Islamic State’s financial infrastructure,” she writes, “is networked, resilient, and adaptive.” This reality, she warns, portends “a grim future for efforts to combat the group’s international presence.” Finally, in June, the U.S. State Department designated the Nordic Resistance Movement, the largest neo-Nazi group in Sweden, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, only the second white nationalist organization on its terrorist list. Peter Smith outlines the development of the group and considers what the designation could mean for its future.
Topic:
Genocide, Migration, Terrorism, Women, Islamic State, Gender Based Violence, Public Health, Yazidis, and Neo-Nazis
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Middle East, Tajikistan, North America, Sweden, and United States of America

417. CTC Sentinel: October 2024 Issue

Author:
Michel Wyss, Brian Dodwell, Michael Knights, and Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
A year on from the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, the Middle East is entering its most dangerous period in living memory. The unfolding events will have far-reaching consequences for the region and the international terror threat. In our feature article, Michel Wyss assesses the intelligence failings in the lead-up to October 7. He writes: “Israel’s inability to detect the impending attacks was not the result of a single glaring failure but rather the result of multiple problems at different levels and across the various intelligence services and the top political and military echelons,” adding that “failures and negligence hampered both Israel’s overall political assessment as well as collection, analysis, and dissemination at the intelligence level.” He argues that one lesson learned is the need for humility and that also includes “the recognition that even seasoned intelligence analysts can fall prey to their own blind spots.” Our interview is with Christopher O’Leary, former FBI Counterterrorism Senior Executive and Director of Hostage Recovery. He provides insights from his more than two decades of working on counterterrorism investigations for the FBI. Reflecting on the Israeli experience since October 7, he discusses key variables for a government to consider when faced with a hostage crisis. Michael Knights examines a year of Houthi attacks against Israel and shipping off the coast of Yemen. He writes: “Facing weak domestic opposition and arguably strengthening their maritime line of supply to Iran, the Houthis are stronger, more technically proficient, and more prominent members of the Axis of Resistance than they were at the war’s outset. The Houthis can now exploit new opportunities by cooperating with other Axis of Resistance players in Iraq as well as with Russia, and they could offer Yemen as a platform from which Iran can deploy advanced weapons against Israel and the West without drawing direct retaliation.” Matthew Levitt assesses the threat posed by Iran’s weaponized pharmaceutical-based agents (PBAs). He writes: “Today, with Iran’s proxies wreaking havoc throughout the region, officials worry Tehran may have already provided weaponized PBAs to several of its partners and proxies. Such a capability, tactically deployed on the battlefield, could enable further October 7-style cross-border raids or kidnapping operations.” This issue is my hundredth at the helm of CTC Sentinel. It is an ongoing privilege to feature the insights of the best and brightest in our field and to count as my colleagues the extraordinary group of leaders and thinkers at West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center.
Topic:
Terrorism, Houthis, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Yemen, and Palestine

418. Beyond GDP: A compendium of regional feminist perspectives

Author:
Jennifer Lipenga, Lumonya Faith, Samia al-Botmeh, Nalini Rathnarajah, and Natalia Quiroga Diaz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In this publication, leading feminist thinkers from Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, share perspectives on why we must move beyond gross domestic product (GDP) as the primary measure of societal progress. Drawing on regional examples, they demonstrate how the GDP-growth obsession is skewing policy-making towards measures that drive austerity, debt, corporate power, and exploitative labour practices, whilst invisibilising unpaid care and domestic work. In a call to action, the authors highlight Indigenous and feminist alternatives that need to be pursued to catalyse a shift towards economies that centre care of people and the planet.
Topic:
GDP, Feminism, Decolonization, and Systems Change
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, Middle East, Latin America, North Africa, and Caribbean

419. Unheard Water Stories from Asia, Africa and MENA: Elevating local voices for water security in a climate insecure world

Author:
Nuzhat Nueary
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This paper shares stories from six countries—Bangladesh, Nepal, Kenya, Somalia, Syria, and Iraq—highlighting the challenges communities face in accessing water. It seeks to bring forward the unique perspectives of communities from diverse backgrounds, each experiencing water crises in distinct ways. While climate change intensifies their crises, many communities also face marginalization due to exclusionary water governance. The impacts are further compounded by factors such as gender, poverty, ethnicity, and race. However, the voices and perspectives of these communities are often overlooked in global climate discussions.The paper aims to highlight these diverse community experiences and advocate for the inclusion of local voices and leadership in climate actions and interventions to ensure fairer access to water. As global climate events like COP-29 unfold, it calls on governments to create inclusive climate policies, integrate water issues into loss and damage discussions, actively involve women and local voices, and urge rich, polluting nations to compensate those most affected by historic and ongoing carbon emissions.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Water, Governance, Climate Finance, Land Rights, Drought, Loss and Damage (L&D), Gender Equality, Water Insecurity, and Salinity
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, Kenya, Africa, Iraq, South Asia, Middle East, Nepal, Syria, and Somalia

420. The Economic Impact of Aviation in Dubai

Author:
Sami Hamroush, Tim Porteous, and Mohammad Shafat
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Dubai is a major global hub for air travel, with its airports serving more than 88 million passengers and the city welcoming 17 million international visitors in 2023. As a global transport and tourism hub, Dubai’s aviation sector plays an integral role in the emirate’s economy. This study—commissioned by Emirates and Dubai Airports—quantifies the economic contributions of Dubai’s aviation sector. This comprehensive study includes an assessment of direct economic activity generated by businesses in the aviation sector, indirect activity stimulated across the sector’s supply chain, and induced activity supported through wage-funded consumption by employees. The study also assesses the catalytic impact of tourism spending facilitated by the aviation sector.
Topic:
Economics, Tourism, Aviation, and Airports
Political Geography:
Middle East, Dubai, and Gulf Nations