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341. The Tragedy behind Israel’s Ostensible Triumph

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The killing by Israel of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the Islamist Shia militia that controls South Lebanon, may well go down in history as the harbinger of a seismic change in the balance of power in the Levant and arguably the whole Middle East. Iran’s ensuing retaliatory missile strike makes war with Israel all but inevitable, though its magnitude remains uncertain. Part of it will be fought with missiles, rockets and drones flying across the sky between the two arch-enemies. Part of it will be fought across the region, possibly wherever Iran’s axis of resistance – the network of pro-Iran armed groups spanning Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Yemen is based. Most of it will likely be fought in Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, whose demise – or even severe weakening – would result in Iran’s influence in the Levant being curtailed. While Israel’s onslaught on Hezbollah has tilted the balance of power heavily in its favour, it is too early to make predictions – after all, the Middle East has disrupted expectations time and time again in the past. It is still possible though to make some considerations and discuss a few open questions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Hezbollah, Proxy Groups, and Hassan Nasrallah
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and United States of America

342. The Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Regime: A Strategic Blow to Russia

Author:
Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks a pivotal moment in Syria’s history, one that Middle East experts will undoubtedly scrutinise for its broader implications. Yet, for those studying Russia, the situation holds a clear message: the downfall of Syria’s dictator is a strategic blow for Moscow.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

343. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans

Author:
Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
Topic:
Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

344. Building bridges for nonviolent change: Women as insider mediators during the October 2019 protests in Iraq

Author:
Ilham Makki Hammadi
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Berghof Foundation
Abstract:
The October 2019 protests in Iraq were notable for their scale, spontaneity, and widespread participation, particularly by young people and women. This report documents the roles of Iraqi women as insider mediators within the movement, highlighting their efforts to maintain peace and build trust among protesters, police, and other stakeholders. Based on interviews with activists across five governorates, the report also examines the gender dynamics and challenges these women faced in mediation, offering insights into their capacity-building needs.
Topic:
Women, Protests, Mediation, and Nonviolence
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

345. The Coming Conflict with Hezbollah

Author:
Seth G. Jones, Daniel Byman, Alexander Palmer, and Riley McCabe
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Although the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza has captured the world’s attention, there is a serious risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to a new assessment by CSIS. Since October 7, 2023, there have been over 4,400 rocket, missile, and other stand-off attacks by Israel and Hezbollah combined. Hezbollah has also repeatedly violated UN Security Council Resolution 1701 by deploying forces and firing anti-tank guided missiles and other stand-off weapons against Israel from the zone between the Blue Line and the Litani River, according to CSIS geolocation analysis. The United States needs to increase its diplomatic engagement to prevent what could become a much wider and more violent war in the Middle East.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Security, Counter-terrorism, Geopolitics, Transnational Actors, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

346. Gaza Needs Humanitarian Assistance Now as Famine Sets In

Author:
Alistair D. B. Cook
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and preventing famine requires increasing airdrops as an interim solution and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to open up more aid channels.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

347. Landscape of Change: Syria and the Middle East after the Assad Regime's Fall

Author:
Sara Nowacka, Aleksandra Maria Spancerska, and Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
A successful offensive by Syrian rebels in December this year led to the fall of one of the most brutal modern regimes. Most Syrians have welcomed the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, although divisions within the opposition forces pose a risk to Syria’s potential stability after 13 years of civil war. To reduce them, international assistance is needed to rebuild Syrian institutions and to help hold accountable those regime members responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Topic:
Regime Change, Political stability, Syrian War, Accountability, Institutions, Bashar al-Assad, Post-Conflict, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

348. The path to "controlled" immigration

Author:
Joël Dine
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europe needs to change its immigration policy completely. It must move from being a ‘fortress Europe’ to a Europe that organises its immigration, so that it is conducive to its economic development. It must do so in order to rediscover the human values that have underpinned its construction for nearly seventy-five years. The sight of thousands of people drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, the English Channel and the Atlantic Ocean, or abandoned in the desert or in the cities, hunted down by the police and at the mercy of traffickers and smugglers of all descriptions, is a daily affront to our consciences. In the midst of this hell in which tens of thousands of young Africans find themselves, there may be a solution. It involves organising ‘controlled immigration’ in the countries from which this immigration originates. This would mean a complete change in the European policies pursued to date. But migration is a practically insurmountable force, built into human nature. History is ample proof of that! Opposition to the free movement of people - and to the way it is currently practised - is doomed to failure. If it is possible to change the situation, then let us do it.
Topic:
Economic Development, Human Trafficking, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

349. Public Perceptions on Energy Subsidy in the MENA

Author:
Munsu Kang
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
In the Middle East and North Africa (hereafter MENA) region, fossil fuel subsidies have been utilized as a social protection mechanism, serving as a tool under the social contract. Previous studies have primarily focused on the social welfare implications of abolishing fossil fuel subsidies. In this study, we aim to answer the question of whether the public in the MENA region prefers social protection services as an alternative to fossil fuel subsidies using online survey results in four countries including Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. The survey results reveal that respondents in the MENA countries prefer energy price reduction (or stabilization) policies over pro-poor cash transfer programs. However, respondents answer that they prefer support for vulnerable groups above government-led energy price reduction policies when there are energy price shocks. Why do people agree to reduce subsidies? Some of the concerns regarding the energy subsidy is that subsidy policies are more pro-rich in nature and benefits are unequally distributed. However, respondents who answered they prefer to maintain or increase fossil fuel subsidies mention that the subsidy policy could benefit all. Based on the results, two key policy implications emerge. First, social protection programs must be carefully designed as an alternative to energy subsidy reform. The second key policy implication is the importance of effective public campaigning and awareness-raising around the need for energy subsidy reform.
Topic:
Reform, Fossil Fuels, Subsidies, Energy, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

350. Diverging Paths: The Impacts of COVID-19 on Migration in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Samuel Davidoff-Gore
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
The shutdown of mobility at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic had drastic effects on movement throughout the Middle East and North Africa. Migrant workers comprise much of the workforce in Arab Gulf states, Jordan, and Lebanon, and many lost their jobs and returned to their countries of origin. Tourism and travel, which represent a sizeable share of GDP for many countries, largely halted. And border closures stranded irregular migrants along many major routes. Looking back, the global public-health crisis may have been less of a disruptor of existing trends, instead reinforcing and accelerating them. The Gulf has continued its shift away from petrowealth and toward more diversified economies that aim to depend less on migrant workers, and North Africa and Lebanon have become increasingly unstable. This report is part of a series of studies by MPI’s Task Force on Mobility and Borders during and after COVID-19 that explores opportunities to improve international coordination regarding border management during public-health crises. Other regional case studies in this series look at Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and South America. Thematic studies consider the role of digital health credentials in facilitating movement, the use of risk analysis to shape border policies, and the rise of remote work and “digital nomads.” A final capstone policy brief reflects on lessons for future public-health crises.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa