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11. The Struggle for Security in Eastern Libya

Author:
Frederic M. Wehrey
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite successful parliamentary elections in early July, localized clashes over identity, power, and resources persist in Libya, straining the capacity of the weak government, deterring foreign investment, and possibly stunting the emergence of democratic institutions. The most pressing of these conflicts— growing insecurity in Libya's eastern region of Barqa, where Benghazi is located—is fueled by longstanding neglect, Salafi militancy, and fighting between ethnic Tabu and Arab tribes. Lacking an effective police and national army, the state is struggling for legitimacy and control of the east. It must act to restore the periphery's confidence in the center.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Libya and Arabia

12. The International Role in Libya's Transition

Author:
Richard L. Garwin and Emily O'Brien
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Following the death of Muammar Gaddafi in October 2011, the situation in Libya fell largely out of the headlines, with the majority of reports focused on the fragile security environment there. Meanwhile, international attention has been fixed on the crisis in Syria.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, North Africa, and Syria

13. Middle East in 2013: Promise and (Lots of) Peril

Author:
Robin Wright and Garrett Nada
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Middle East faces even bigger challenges in 2013 than it did during the first two years of the so-called Arab Spring. So far—a pivotal caveat—the Arab uprisings have deepened the political divide, worsened economic woes and produced greater insecurity. Solutions are not imminent either. More than 120 million people in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Yemen have experienced successful uprisings that ousted four leaders who together ruled a total of 129 years. But more than half of the Arab world's 350 million people have yet to witness any real change at all. Defining a new order has proven far harder than ousting old autocrats. Phase one was creating conditions for democracy. Phase two is a kind of democratic chaos as dozens of parties in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia do political battle (and in some cases physical battle) over constitutions. Ancien regimes have not totally given up, as in Yemen. The cost of change has exceeded even the highest estimates, as in Syria. So most Arabs are probably disappointed with the “Arab Spring” for one of many reasons. Nevertheless the uprisings were never going to happen in one season. This is instead only the beginning of a decades-long process—as most in the West should know from their own experiences.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Post Colonialism, and Regime Change
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Arabia, Egypt, and Tunisia

14. Libya's Troubled Transition

Author:
Paul Salem and Amanda Kadlec
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
More than a year after the outbreak of the uprising against Muammar Qaddafi's rule, Libya is in the midst of a challenging transition. Qaddafi is dead, his forty-two-year-old regime overthrown, and the country liberated. And now Libyans are laying the groundwork for elections that will start their country on the path to a new constitution.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, and Arabia

15. What Impact? The E10 and the 2011 Security Council

Author:
Naureen Chowdhury Fink, Paul Romita, and Till Papenfuss
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Much has already been written about the 2011 Security Council. This has been with good reason. The current configuration of powerful non-permanent members with aspirations for permanent seats is notable. As a result, there has been widespread speculation regarding the impact so many large members will have on the tone and substance of the Council's work this year. Like last year, when countries like Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, and Turkey all served together, the collective strength of the non-permanent or elected membership is impressive.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, International Organization, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Japan, Turkey, Libya, Brazil, Mexico, and Nigeria

16. Libya: Beyond Regime Change

Author:
Henrik Boesen Lindbo Larsen
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
NATO's intervention in Libya has highlighted the risks connected with enforcement of humanitarian principles in Europe's neighbourhood through engaging in regime change. The EU now seems to remain the only viable forum if the Western states wish to play a more permanent role in Libya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Regime Change, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Europe, Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

17. Stakeholders of Libya's February 17 Revolution

Author:
Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof and Manal Omar
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Who the rebels are in Libya has been a common question surrounding the revolution that overthrew Muammar Gadhafi. This report maps out the factions in Libya's east, centering on Benghazi. It identifies the various groups, their narratives, their part in the revolution, and emergent grievances that could translate into instability or future conflicts. Libyans share a strong sense of historical narrative and ownership of the recent revolution, but complexities lie within that ownership. There are tensions between the youth movement and the National Transitional Council; between local Libyans and returning members of the Libyan diaspora; between secular groups and religious ones, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood; within militia groups that did the fighting; and among Libya's tribes and ethnic groups. The widespread sense of ownership of the revolution, which kept morale high during the fighting, has translated to expectations of quick improvements, both overall and in people's day-to-day lives. Managing expectations will be key to ensuring that tensions within Libyan society do not overcome the sense of unity that the revolution fostered. International actors should ensure that local ownership of the political process remains at the fore and is not undermined. In addition, research is needed to understand the situation in Libya more clearly, in order to identify ways that the international community can support, aid, and advise local efforts in forming a stable and secure environment in Libya.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Armed Struggle, Regime Change, and Self Determination
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, and North Africa

18. Slippery Slope: Libya and the Lessons of Previous No-Fly Zones

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Twenty years ago, at the close of the 1991 Gulf War, the imposition of a UN-mandated no-fly zone contributed to the formation of a safe haven for Iraqi Kurds, resulting in the liberation of nearly three million people from Baathist dictatorship a full decade before the rest of Iraq. In 1992, new UN-mandated no-fly and no-drive zones were established in southern Iraq and the Balkans to contain rogue regimes and protect civilians from government repression. Given the current developments in Libya, it is natural to consider employing such options once again. Yet history shows that exclusion zones are particularly tricky operations. If not configured properly, they can be worse than useless, signaling fecklessness instead of resolve while providing little real protective value to civilians.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Insurgency, and Political Activism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, United Nations, Balkans, and North Africa

19. Fighting in Libya: The Military Balance

Author:
Jeffrey White
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The uprising in Libya has evolved into a significant military struggle. The Qadhafi regime and, to a lesser extent, its opponents are employing substantial levels of violence, including the use of heavy weapons. Thousands have been killed and wounded.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa

20. 'The Last Bullet': Qadhafi and the Future of Libya

Author:
Simon Henderson and David Schenker
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Following this weekend's widespread disturbances in Libya, Muammar Qadhafi could lose power within hours or days as his military units and security services crumble in the face of popular discontent. Alternatively, he could decide -- in the ominous words of his son Saif al-Islam -- to "fight to the last bullet," which suggests even more horrific levels of violence and anarchy. In a rambling television broadcast today, February 22, the colonel pledged to "die as a martyr."
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and Democratization
Political Geography:
Libya, Arabia, Arab Countries, and North Africa