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82. Setbacks and Realignments: The Continuing Evolution of Militant Islamist Groups in Africa
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- A review of violent events involving militant Islamist groups in Africa over the past year reveals a mixed picture, with some groups showing increased activity and others diminished. This variance underscores the importance of local factors affecting each context.
- Topic:
- Violent Extremism, ISIS, Militant Islam, Al Shabaab, and Boko Haram
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and Nigeria
83. Dynamics of African Economic Migration
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Migration continues to be a major issue affecting African societies. Here are three observations on how Africa’s economic migrants* affect security on the continent:
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, Refugees, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, Egypt, Mediterranean, and Gulf of Aden
84. Who Controls the Rimland: Competition and Rivalry in the Mediterranean
- Author:
- GianLuca Pastori
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The dynamics of the Mediterranean region are increasingly affected by the interplay of the US, Russian, and Chinese efforts to strengthen their respective regional positions. Since the years of the second Obama administration, the US disengagement has led to a greater Russian and Chinese presence and to the growth of their influence at political, economic, and military levels. Today, Russia is heavily involved in the Libyan struggle for power, a role that the reception of General Khalifa Haftar onboard the flagship of the Russian Fleet, the Admiral Kuznetsov, already highlighted in January 2017. Since then, Moscow’s role has progressively increased, culminating in the deployment of Russian PMC’s personnel in support of Haftar’s troops, in September 2019, during the operations on the Tripoli front. Somewhat reminiscent of the role assumed in Syria since 2016, Moscow’s activism has been, in recent years, the main source of concern for both the US military establishment and NATO. Moreover, the increase in military assertiveness has gone side by side with a greater economic presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, favored by the planned enhancement of the shipyard facilities in Tartus[1]. Moscow’s political weight has been re-affirmed in the region by the role that Russian President Vladimir Putin played as peace broker during the crisis triggered by the announcement of the US’ withdrawal from Northern Syria in October 2019. The so-called ‘Sochi agreement’ (October 22, 2019) has been, to a large extent, a product of the role that Russia has assumed as the bulwark of the Bashar al-Assad’s regime and main military force in the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Strategic Competition, and Proxy War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Libya, Syria, and Mediterranean
85. Russian Foreign Policy in the Middle East: New Challenge for Western Interests?
- Author:
- Nikolay Kozhanov
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Russia and the West: Reality Check." The current level of Russian presence in the Middle East is unprecedented for the region since the fall of the Soviet Union. Records of diplomatic and political contacts show increased exchange of multilevel delegations between Russia and the main regional countries. After 2012, Moscow has attempted to cultivate deeper involvement in regional issues and to establish contacts with forces in the Middle East which it considers as legitimate. Moreover, on September 30, 2015, Russia launched air strikes against Syrian groupings fighting against the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Before that time, Russia had tried to avoid any fully-fledged involvement in the military conflicts in the region. It was also the first time when it adopted an American military strategy by putting the main accent on the use of air power instead of ground forces. Under these circumstances, the turmoil in the Middle East, which poses a political and security challenge to the EU and United States, makes it crucial to know whether Russia could be a reliable partner in helping the West to stabilize the region or whether, on the contrary, Moscow will play the role of a troublemaker.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Palestine, Syria, Egypt, United States of America, European Union, and Gulf Cooperation Council
86. The New US Administration and Libya
- Author:
- Karim Mezran
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- As the Trump administration assumes office, it faces a major challenge in Libya, where the country’s situation continues to deteriorate as an ongoing conflict worsens. The Libya Peace Agreement produced in 2015 by a UN-backed process, which established a Presidential Council and Government of National Accord (PC/GNA), is floundering. The PC/GNA has failed to garner credibility on the ground since landing in Tripoli almost a year ago and it has suffered from significant infighting.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Affairs, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- America and Libya
87. Egypt’s Security and Haftar: al-Sisi’s strategy in Libya
- Author:
- Giuseppe Dentice
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian military response through heavy air strikes on the cities of Darnah and Sirte – as a consequence of the kidnapping and beheading of 21 Egyptian Copts by a Libyan cell affiliated to the Islamic State (IS) in February 2015 – represents so far the peak of Egypt’s involvement in the Libyan affaire.
- Topic:
- International Security and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya and Egypt
88. Once and for All a New Compromise in Libya?
- Author:
- Virginie Collombier
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- More than one year after the signing of the Libyan Political Accord (LPA) in Skhirat, implementation of the agreement is impeded by obstacles which now look insurmountable. Despite efforts by Western countries and the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to empower the Presidential Council (PC) of the Government of National Accord (GNA), major constituencies have continued contesting its legitimacy and refusing its authority.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya and Global Focus
89. Time for action: EU and a new political initiative in Libya
- Author:
- Arturo Varvelli
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- During 2016 and in the first few weeks of 2017, it has become clear that General Khalifa Haftar is gaining support both locally and internationally. Egypt, the Emirates, Russia, and France, all played a role in strengthening his power.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Libya and Global Focus
90. The Haftar-Russia link and the Military Plan of the LNA
- Author:
- Wolfgang Pusztai
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract:
- After the 1969 revolution, Libya’s previously close links to the United States quickly deteriorated. At the same time Muammar al-Gaddafi sought closer links to the Soviet Union. The clear majority of the equipment of the “Armed Forces of the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya” originated from the Soviets or the Eastern Bloc. Many of the officers of all services were educated at military training facilities of the Soviet Armed Forces. After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia remained as one of Libya’s key allies.
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Libya