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2. Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Whether the National Liberation Army (ELN) joins the current peace process is one of the biggest uncertainties around Colombia's historic opportunity to end decades of deadly conflict. Exploratory contacts continue, and pressure to advance decisively is growing, as the Havana negotiations with the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) approach a decisive point. However, hopes fresh negotiations with the second insurgency were imminent were repeatedly dashed in 2013. Agreeing on an agenda and procedures that satisfy the ELN and are consistent with the Havana frame-work will not be easy. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither's long-term interest. A process from which the ELN is missing or to which it comes late would lack an essential element for the construction of sustainable peace. Both sides, therefore, should shift gears to open negotiations soonest, without waiting for a perfect alignment of stars in the long 2014 electoral season.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War on Drugs, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and Latin America
3. Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War
- Author:
- Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets without third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We found that exogenous supply shocks originated in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia (Mexico's main cocaine supplier) create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economics, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico
4. From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector
- Author:
- Oeindrila Dube, Omar Garcia-Ponce, and Kevin Thom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- We examine how commodity price shocks experienced by rural producers affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in U.S. maize-growing regions, as well as export flows of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2,200 municipios spanning 1990-2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. This increase was accompanied by differentially lower rural wages, suggesting that households planted more drug crops in response to the decreased income generating potential of maize farming.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Poverty, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
5. The International Politics of Drugs and Illicit Trade in the Americas
- Author:
- Peter Andreas and Angelica Duran-Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- Illicit trade has long been a central feature of Latin America's engagement in the world. In this chapter we first briefly sketch the scope and dimensions of illicit trade in the region, and stress the importance of various types of power asymmetries. Drawing on illustrations primarily from drug trafficking (by far the most studied and documented case), we then outline in a preliminary fashion some of the key issues in understanding transnational illicit flows and their impact on Latin America foreign and domestic policy and governance. We concentrate on four themes: 1) the relationship between illicit trade and diplomatic relations with the United States; 2) the relationship between illicit trade and democratic governance; 3) the relationship between illicit trade and organized violence; and 4) the relationship between illicit trade and neoliberalism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Latin America
6. Honduras under siege
- Author:
- Roger F. Noriega and José Javier Lanza
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- As stepped-up counternarcotics policies in Colombia and Mexico have increased pressure on regional drug trafficking networks, organized crime syndicates have relocated operations to Central America, where law enforcement agencies and institutions are ill-equipped to withstand the onslaught. These multibillion-dollar gangs are making common cause with some local politicians who are following a playbook honed by Hugo Chávez in Venezuela. The result in Venezuela was the birth of a narcostate, and similar dramas are playing out in Central America. Like Chávez, caudillos are using the democratic process to seek power, weaken institutions, and undermine the rule of law—generating turmoil that accommodates narcotrafficking. Making matters worse for Honduras is that left-wing activists abroad, in support of ousted president and Chávez acolyte Manuel Zelaya, are waging a very public campaign of outlandish claims seeking to block any US assistance to help the Honduran government resist the drug cartels. It is imperative that US policymakers vigorously support democracy, the rule of law, and antidrug programs in Honduras.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Democratization, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- America, Latin America, and Mexico
7. The Rise of Latin America: A Tale of Two Continents
- Author:
- Devi Nampiaparampil
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Latin Lessons: How South America Stopped Listening to the United States and Started Prospering Hal Weitzman(Hoboken, NJ: John Wiley Sons, 2012), 260 pages.
- Topic:
- Cold War and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- United States, South America, and Latin America
8. Countering Criminal Violence in Central America
- Author:
- Michael Shifter
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Central America is increasingly beset by spreading criminal violence. In the northern triangle—Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala—insecurity is particularly severe and widespread. In 2010, these countries ranked among the highest homicide rates (per one hundred thousand people) in the world: Honduras with eighty-two, El Salvador with sixty- six, and Guatemala with forty-one; in comparison, the homicide rate in the United States was less than five. The toll has been considerable, tallying nearly seventeen thousand murders in the northern triangle in 2011 and showing no signs of abating. The other four Central American states have also witnessed both heightened domestic insecurity and rising rates of crime and violence.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Corruption, Crime, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Central America
9. Andean-U.S. Dialogue Forum: Toward a Common Agenda for the Andean Countries and the United States
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- An opening product of the Andean-U.S. Dialogue Forum, this report is intended to spur conversations on more effective cooperation by identifying convergences and divergences in priorities among the countries and the citizens of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia and the United States. It seeks to open the door to a better understanding of the internal dynamics in each country and to reduce stereotypes that impede cooperation to resolve mutual challenges. This report highlights the transnational issues of energy, climate change, trade, and illegal drugs, recognizing that beneficial progress will demand a collective response from all.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and War on Drugs
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, Latin America, Venezuela, Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia
10. The Drug War in Mexico: Confronting a Shared Threat
- Author:
- David A. Shirk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Mexico is in the midst of a worsening security crisis. Explosive clashes and territorial disputes among powerful drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) have killed more than thirty-five thousand people since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006. The geography of that violence is limited but continues to spread, and its targets include a growing number of government officials, police officers, journalists, and individuals unrelated to the drug trade. The Mexican government has made the war on drugs its top priority and has even called in the military to support the country's weak police and judicial institutions. Even so, few Mexican citizens feel safer today than they did ten years ago, and most believe that their government is losing the fight.
- Topic:
- Security, War on Drugs, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Latin America, and Mexico
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