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2. Democratization and Other Civil War Legacies in Central America
- Author:
- Fabrice Lehoucq
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes the impact of civil war on regime change. It focuses on Central America, a region where several countries underwent transitions to democracy in the wake of civil war during the second half of the twentieth century. It argues that armed conflict, not increasing levels of economic development, led to political change. Violence liquidated stubbornly resilient autocracies in El Salvador and Nicaragua, catalyzed the democratization of Costa Rican politics, and was the backdrop to regime liberalization in Guatemala. Postwar negotiations, at a time when Cold War bipolarity was ending, led to the establishment of more open, civilian regimes on the isthmus. This paper also notes that the transition from autocracy was enormously costly in both lives and economic well-being, which helps to explain why political change has given birth to low-quality democracies or mixed regimes on the isthmus, ones that also have witnessed the explosion of criminal and drug-related violence.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Crime, Democratization, Development, Regime Change, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
3. His Excellency Juan Manuel Santos, President of the Republic of Colombia
- Author:
- Juan Manuel Santos
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Video
- Abstract:
- This World Leaders Forum program features an address by His Excellency Juan Manuel Santos, President of the Republic of Colombia, titled, Colombia on the Road to Peace: The Rise of a New Hope, followed by a panel discussion with Columbia University faculty and a question and answer session with the audience.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Development, Peace Studies, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
4. The Colombian peacebuilding process: discussion at an international seminar
- Author:
- Augusto Varas
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Peace talks between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia have created international expectations of an end to the longest internal armed conflict in Latin America. However, peace negotiations are facing crucial obstacles: agreements reached thus far are too general and need further detailed development; both parties are facing internal opposition; the social demand for transitional justice is widespread, but its implementation will be difficult; and, because of this, legitimising a peace agreement would require a protracted political effort, civic participation and a solid communication campaign explaining the terms of the agreement. The post-agreement phase would require the implementation of key public policies to close the rural-urban gap and cut the guerrilla-drug trafficking link; new and more efficient government agencies at the subnational level should be created to deliver public goods; military institutions should have greater civilian control and leadership to transform their role from internal security to that of national defence; and since the peace process has been gender blind, it will be crucial to increase women’s participation in the peacebuilding process. Arms decommissioning and arsenal destruction should have a blueprint, and social movements should oversee the enforcement of peace agreements and peacebuilding policies.
- Topic:
- Narcotics Trafficking, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, South America, and Latin America
5. Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Whether the National Liberation Army (ELN) joins the current peace process is one of the biggest uncertainties around Colombia's historic opportunity to end decades of deadly conflict. Exploratory contacts continue, and pressure to advance decisively is growing, as the Havana negotiations with the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) approach a decisive point. However, hopes fresh negotiations with the second insurgency were imminent were repeatedly dashed in 2013. Agreeing on an agenda and procedures that satisfy the ELN and are consistent with the Havana frame-work will not be easy. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither's long-term interest. A process from which the ELN is missing or to which it comes late would lack an essential element for the construction of sustainable peace. Both sides, therefore, should shift gears to open negotiations soonest, without waiting for a perfect alignment of stars in the long 2014 electoral season.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War on Drugs, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and Latin America
6. Will elections in El Salvador create a narcostate?
- Author:
- Roger F. Noriega
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
- Abstract:
- El Salvador will choose a new president in a runoff election on March 9. The nation's decision may prove critical to Salvadoran democracy and regional security, in light of substantial evidence linking the ruling party candidate to narcotraffickers, terrorist groups, and violent street gangs. Moreover, foreign interference in the form of billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues has given the ruling party an advantage, despite the fact that its economic policies have increased poverty and stunted economic growth.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
7. Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War
- Author:
- Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets without third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We found that exogenous supply shocks originated in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia (Mexico's main cocaine supplier) create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico.
- Topic:
- Crime, Economics, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico
8. From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector
- Author:
- Oeindrila Dube, Omar Garcia-Ponce, and Kevin Thom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- We examine how commodity price shocks experienced by rural producers affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in U.S. maize-growing regions, as well as export flows of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2,200 municipios spanning 1990-2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. This increase was accompanied by differentially lower rural wages, suggesting that households planted more drug crops in response to the decreased income generating potential of maize farming.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, Poverty, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Latin America and Mexico
9. The International Politics of Drugs and Illicit Trade in the Americas
- Author:
- Peter Andreas and Angelica Duran-Martinez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- Illicit trade has long been a central feature of Latin America's engagement in the world. In this chapter we first briefly sketch the scope and dimensions of illicit trade in the region, and stress the importance of various types of power asymmetries. Drawing on illustrations primarily from drug trafficking (by far the most studied and documented case), we then outline in a preliminary fashion some of the key issues in understanding transnational illicit flows and their impact on Latin America foreign and domestic policy and governance. We concentrate on four themes: 1) the relationship between illicit trade and diplomatic relations with the United States; 2) the relationship between illicit trade and democratic governance; 3) the relationship between illicit trade and organized violence; and 4) the relationship between illicit trade and neoliberalism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, and Latin America
10. Illicit Americas: Historical Dynamics of Smuggling in U.S. Relations with Its Neighbors
- Author:
- Peter Andreas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
- Abstract:
- The proliferation of illicit cross-border flows in the Americas—ranging from unauthorized migrant workers and psychoactive substances to arms and dirty money—is often portrayed as an alarming and unprecedented challenge to borders and government authority in the region.1 Policing such border flows has also become an increasingly prominent (and sometimes highly divisive) issue in U.S. relations with its neighbors, as Washington has pushed for tighter border controls and more intensive crackdowns on smuggling.
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Crime, Migration, Narcotics Trafficking, and Border Control
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, Latin America, and North America
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