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271. ROK's Nuclear Experiments: A Successful Case of Alliance Management

Author:
Steven Kim
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The startling disclosure by the South Korean (Republic of Korea: ROK) government on September 2, 2004, that a small group of its scientists had conducted secret nuclear experiments in 1982 and 2000 raised immediate concerns about possible implications for the six party talks to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis, including relations among three principals in the talks—South Korea, North Korea (Democratic People's Republic of Korea: DPRK), and the United States. The first concern was that the revelations might put a strain on ROK and US relations, stemming from their differing views over the disposition of the ROK's nuclear issue by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nation's nuclear watchdog; and second was that the DPRK might take advantage of the incident to pursue its own self-interested agenda. Of the two, the possible negative impact on ROK-US relations was the bigger concern among many observers. With ROK-US relations showing strain over the proper negotiating strategy toward the DPRK, it was feared that further differences between the ROK and the US over the South Korean nuclear issue might aggravate their relationship, and, thus, impede the progress of the six-party talks.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea

272. North Korea Triumphs Again in Diplomacy

Author:
Nicholas Eberstadt
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
Contrary to conventional wisdom, which holds the North Korean state to be an unremittingly hostile “negotiating partner,” history actually demonstrates that Pyongyang can be a highly obliging interlocutor under certain very specific conditions. All that is necessary to “get to yes” with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is to concede every important point demanded by the North Korean side while sacrificing vital interests of one's own. The mid-September “breakthrough” at the six-party talks in Beijing would appear to conform precisely to this long-established pattern. The vaunted outcome—a long-desired “consensus statement” inked by North Korea and the other five governments engaged in protracted discussions over North Korean denuclearization—is being celebrated by diplomatic sophisticates in Seoul, Beijing, Moscow, Tokyo, and Washington.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Washington, Beijing, Asia, North Korea, Tokyo, Korea, and Seoul

273. China Brief, Understanding Chinaís North Korea Policy

Author:
Frank Ching, You Ji, Willy Lam, and Eric Teo
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
The two rounds of six-party talks in Beijing on the Korean nuclear standoff have demonstrated China.s unusual support for a multilateral solution to the conflict. This is symbolic of the country.s new diplomacy under Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabo. As is typical, Beijing is seeking to maximize its diplomatic gains for reasons related to national prestige and regional stability. What is new, however, is that the two leaders are trying to achieve these goals by having China act as a status quo power rather than through revisionist behavior. This change is vividly reflected in the fact that China has proven more willing to cooperate with the United States and is more determined to pressure North Korea. This brief article attempts to evaluate some of the domestic and international factors that are driving China to sponsor the six-party talks. conflicts on the Peninsula.with severe security implications for China. In the last few years two schools of thought have emerged in Beijing with respect to Chinese policy toward the DPRK. The first of these is the .buffer zone. school. It argues that, Pyongyang.s ill intentions and unpredictable adventurism notwithstanding, North Korea.s very existence remains of great strategic value to a China whose worst security nightmare is that of another Korean war. Moreover, any regime change that might occur in the DPRK as a result of war could bring the deployment of U.S. troops to positions close to the Sino-Korean borders. And taking into consideration a possible showdown between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, this could result in a hostile military presence right on China.s doorstep. Indeed, it was precisely this worst case scenario that China fought a war fifty-four years ago to prevent.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, North Korea, Korea, and Pyongyang

274. The U.S. – ROK Alliance: Building a Mature Partnership

Author:
James J. Przystup and Kang Choi
Publication Date:
03-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
In thinking about the future direction of the alliance between the United States and South Korea, one needs to start in the past. For in this case, the past is truly prologue. More than a decade ago, as President George H.W. Bush came into office, structural changes in the security landscape of Asia were becoming manifest. The Cold War was winding down. Congress and the American public were looking for returns on the “peace dividend.” There was a clear expectation that cuts would be coming across the board — and in Asia, these cuts would begin with the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:
Security and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Asia, South Korea, and Korea

275. Disorderly adjustments to exchange rate misalignments: The experience of Korea'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper analyzes Korea's exchange rate dynamics before and during the crisis of 1997-98 by estimating the long-run fundamental exchange rate and the associated error correction model. The analysis suggests that although Korea's exchange rate was substantially overvalued before the crisis, the subsequent exchange rate dynamics could not fully be accounted by the need to correct misalignments. It was found that there was a large deviation from the short-run fundamental value of exchange rates, indicating the presence of “overshooting of the overshooting equilibrium” during the crisis. The findings have important policy implications for crisis management in emerging market economies.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Korea

276. Transmission channels of capital flow shocks: why Korean crisis was so severe'

Author:
Takuji Kinkyo
Publication Date:
08-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
The Asian crisis highlighted the vulnerability of emerging market economies faced by sudden capital flow reversals. An important question that has critical implications for crisis management is how negative shocks in capital inflows were transmitted to economic activities, transforming financial instability into fully-fledged crises. Using VARs, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of capital flow shocks during the Korean crisis of 1997-98. Although it is commonly believed that severe economic contractions were caused by credit crunch, the analysis suggests that the major constraint for production was a steep rise in prices of imported inputs due to sharp exchange rate depreciations.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Korea

277. U.S. Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A U.S. Perspective

Author:
Michael McDevitt
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
The US-ROK security relationship is in transition. It is a transition that started some time ago, in 1989 to be precise, with the end of the Cold War. What we are experiencing today is simply the latest, and perhaps most public manifestation, of a process that has been gathering momentum since the early days of the first Bush Administration.
Political Geography:
United States and Korea

278. U.S.-Korea Security Alliance in Transition: A ROK Perspective

Author:
Jae-Kap Ryoo
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
Is the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship in crisis or at a turning point where it can be transformed into a more resilient alliance? Is there simply a semantic debate raising questions at the moment or is the alliance suffering a real crisis? Most observers worry about the alliance's future, and many experts consider that the alliance relationship is in a transitional period: to be redefined and restructured to meet new requirements for the 21st century on the Korean peninsula and in the Asia-Pacific region more generally. At present, the Republic of Korea and the United States need to prepare for the future. In light of various challenges to their security alliance, future prospects do not seem bright. This article is an attempt to do three things: to analyze various challenges to the ROK-U.S. alliance relationship and to consider the strategic implications for the future of the alliance in the Asia-Pacific region; to explore more effective ways to develop a new relationship for the 21st century; and to search for a more appropriate method to make the alliance “unique” in the Asia-Pacific while remaining comparable with the U.S.-Japan alliance and other treaty relationships.
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Korea

279. Changing Inter-Korean Relations and the Impact on the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Author:
Choong Nam Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
With the end of the Cold War, since the 1990s Inter-Korean relations, a lasting reminder of that Cold War, have undergone drastic changes, especially during and after the Kim Dae Jung administration. Peace and stability in Northeast Asia depend on what happens on the Korean peninsula. How Seoul's North Korea policy evolves is of great interest to its allies and will likely impact South Korea's stature in the regional strategic order. In particular, the U.S.-ROK relationship can improve or deteriorate based on the diplomatic direction that South Korea takes with North Korea.
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, North Korea, Korea, and Northeast Asia

280. The Changing Role Of China On The Korean Peninsula

Author:
Samuel S. Kim
Publication Date:
09-2004
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
There has been much talk lately about the changing role of China on the Korean peninsula. China's proactive diplomacy during the second standoff over nuclear weapons between the United States and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) stands in marked contrast to the risk-averse “who me?” posture it held during the conflict of the early 1990s that culminated in the U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework on October 21, 1994. In that earlier conflict, the Chinese opted to sit on the sidelines with the familiar refrain that this was a dispute to be resolved bilaterally between Washington and Pyongyang. In the latest (second) nuclear standoff, China has played the primary catalytic role of facilitating bi-trilateral (DPRK-U.S.-China) and multilateral six-nation dialogues among all the Northeast Asian concerned states, drawing North Korea into a sui generis regional multilateral setting that it had previously sworn off in a quest for bilateral negotiations with the United States. In this process, the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have increasingly come into virtual geopolitical alignment, in tandem with the straining and fracturing of the ROK-US alliance.
Political Geography:
United States, China, Washington, Asia, Korea, and Pyongyang