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52. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity
- Author:
- Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand
53. The Evolving US-Japan Relationship
- Author:
- J. Thomas Schieffer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- In the first years of the 21st century a profound change has occurred in the US-Japan relationship. We have moved beyond the security and economic paradigm of the Cold War to understand the global opportunities presented by our strategic partnership. The US-Japan alliance has long been the cornerstone of American foreign policy in the Pacific and remains so today. Both the United States and Japan recognize that the positioning of US forces on Japanese soil reassures the region and deters potential aggressors so that peace and security can be maintained. More and more, the United States and Japan also recognize that their strong and active partnership can meet other global challenges as well.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States and Japan
54. China's Exports in ICT and its Impact on Asian Countries
- Author:
- Yuqing Xing
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses China's ICT exports grow thin its two major markets Japan and the US from 1992 to 2004. It focuses on ICT products classified in SITC 75, 76 and 77. The empirical results show that Chinese exports had maintained two-digit annual growth during the period. The growth was much higher than the corresponding growth of the overall markets. By 2004, Chinese ICT exports accounted for 26 per cent of the total Japanese imports and 19 per cent of the total imports of the US in ICT products. In addition, the paper investigates whether the rapid growth of Chinese ICT exports crowded out that of other Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand. The empirical analysis shows that the crowding out effect differs across countries and products. The exports of Singapore and Philippines have been negatively affected by the growth of Chinese exports, but no crowding effect existed at all with Indonesia's exports.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand
55. China's Role as a Trade Bridge for Expanding Regional and World Trade
- Author:
- Min Gong and Wenpu Li
- Publication Date:
- 10-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- To understand China's trade relations with the US, Japan, and South Korea, we estimate a vector autoregressive model (VAR) model to investigate the trade interactions among these four countries using data from the period of the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2005. We find substantial Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)-induced indirect trade from Japan and Korea to the US through China, and between Japan and Korea through China. These indirect trade flows lead to increases in China's trade deficit with Japan and Korea as well as China's trade surplus with the US. The indirect trade flows through China also indicate the importance of China's role as a trade bridge. From the viewpoint of world trade growth, as a trade bridge, China contributes to the stable growth of the regional and world economies. However, China's role as a trade bridge may negatively affect its long-run economic growth.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and Korea
56. Der kollektive "Buddenbrooks-Effekt"
- Author:
- Christoph Deutschmann
- Publication Date:
- 05-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
- Abstract:
- The paper views the current financial crisis in light of long-term structural socioeconomic changes in advanced industrial societies. In Western Europe, the United States and Japan, the period of economic prosperity after the Second World War led to a remarkable accumulation of wealth among the middle class that had surprisingly little effect on the substantial fortunes of the wealthiest upper class. This affluence gave rise to pension and investment funds emerging as a new type of collective actor in global financial markets, while the economy was marked by increasing instability, declining growth rates and financial crises. The paper tries to clarify the interconnections between these phenomena using the framework of a multilevel analysis that culminates in a model I call the “collective Buddenbrooks effect” (“Buddenbrooks” being a family saga by Thomas Mann): Structural upward social mobility will lead to an increasing imbalance in capital markets, since the volume of financial assets looking for profitable investment will rise as the social reservoir of solvent debtors and promising investment opportunities decline. Advanced industrial economies are thus characterized by a bias towards capital export and excessive financial liquidity, with the well-known consequences of low economic growth rates and the danger of speculative bubbles on global capital markets. The middle class that originally benefitted from postwar prosperity is negatively affected, too. I argue that the current crisis cannot be understood sufficiently without taking this structural socioeconomic background into account.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Political Theory
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Europe
57. Leading Without Followers: the Political Economy of Japan's ICT Sector
- Author:
- Kenji E. Kushida
- Publication Date:
- 12-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
- Abstract:
- Despite global leadership by Japanese firms in sectors such as automobiles, precision equipment, and various high tech components, Japanese firms in the ICT sector have followed a persistent pattern of leading without followers. While leading the domestic market to ever-high levels of sophistication, sometimes beyond that of most other advanced industrial countries, Japanese ICT companies have retreated dramatically from international markets. Moreover, in technology after technology, Japanese ICT firms invest heavily, undertake extensive R, and for network technologies, deploy infrastructure rapidly, only to find that global technological trajectories shift in a different direction. While globally successful Japanese industries were able to use their domestic market as a springboard into international markets, Japan's ICT sector became decoupled from global markets, trapping Japanese firms in the domestic market.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Israel, and Asia
58. Growth and Responsibility: A Review of Business Action for Africa between the UK and German G8 Presidencies 2005-7
- Author:
- Richard Reeve
- Publication Date:
- 06-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chatham House
- Abstract:
- In March 2005 the report of the Commission for Africa called for a sea change in the way the business community engaged in the development process in Africa. The G8 Gleneagles summit that July made a series of commitments on boosting African development, while in London a new international network was launched to bring G8 and African business leaders together to build on the momentum of the Commission and the UK's dual G8 and EU presidencies. Business Action for Africa (BAA) declared its aims as: to present a clear African and international business voice to promote growth and poverty reduction; to promote more positive, balanced perceptions of Africa; and to develop and showcase good business practice.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and Germany
59. Long-Term Effects of a Recession at Labor Market Entry in Japan and the United States
- Author:
- Yuji Genda, Ayako Kondo, and Souichi Ohta
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
- Abstract:
- We examine effects of entering the labor market during a recession on subsequent earnings and employment for Japanese and American men, using comparable household labor force surveys. Previous analyses focus on search theoretic and implicit-contract arguments, which have their strongest effects on more educated workers. We argue that, in a country like Japan which has a dual labor market, there is an additional mechanism that affects mainly less educated workers. Namely, these workers are more likely to be trapped in the secondary sector if they graduate during a recession. We find a persistent, strong negative effect on earnings for less educated Japanese men, in contrast to no long-term effect for less educated American men; also, a substantial part of the effect for less educated Japanese men is attributed to the decreased probability of regular employment. The effect for the more educated group is more or less similar in both countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, America, Israel, and Asia
60. Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification
- Author:
- Anna Wong
- Publication Date:
- 07-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper analyzes international reserve diversification by examining changes in quantity shares of currencies held in foreign exchange reserves. It discusses alternative methodologies for constructing quantity shares and applies the preferred methodology to three sets of data on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves: quarterly aggregate International Monetary Fund's Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves (IMF COFER) data, quarterly IMF COFER data for industrial- and developing-country groups, and annual data for 23 individual countries that disclose the currency composition of their foreign exchange reserve holdings. What can one infer from available data about the diversification of foreign exchange reserves since 1999? The analysis suggests four conclusions: (1) The behavior of the quantity shares of the US dollar and the euro in total reserves is consistent with net stabilizing intervention; their quantity shares tend to rise when these currencies are declining and vice versa. (2) The principal driver of this stabilizing diversification over the period 1999Q1–2005Q4 is Japan. (3) The industrial countries as a group but excluding Japan do not indicate stabilizing diversification. (4) The nonindustrial countries as a group display stabilizing diversification over short periods of only a few quarters. In summary, the aggregate data conceal much diversity in the practices of individual countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, and Asia